Morning Bells (04 Dec 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A wise person knows not only what to LOOK but also knows what to OVERLOOK.

After 2 days gain Nifty struggled around the 6200 mark, y’day also Nifty failed to close above my level 6220. Benchmark indices were unable to build on to the momentum despite India’s current account deficit (CAD) at three year low.

CAD narrowed sharply to US$5.2bn (1.2% of GDP) in Q2 of 2013-14 from US$21bn (5% of GDP in Q2 of 2012-13), also much lower than 4.9% of GDP in Q1 of 2013-14. The lower CAD was primarily on account of a decline in the trade deficit as merchandise exports picked up and imports moderated, particularly gold imports.

The FMCG, consumer durables, banking, auto and the capital goods stocks were among the top losers. On the other hand, realty, oil and gas, metals and power stocks were among the top gainers. 

SO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT SHOWS INDIA’S ECONOMY IS TRYING TO COMING ON TRACK AND CAN BE CONSIDERED POSITIVE FOR MARKET TIME BEING BUT FOCUS WILL REMAIN POLL RESUTLS ONLY.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market remain choppy and will wait for election outcome. Till then there’s no clarity in market. I am stick t my ranges which is first Nifty need to close above 6230 from where its declining most and then it will be risky or on cautious zone above 6300 and then finally 6358 which is all time high. On downside 6105 and then 5970 are levels for mid term. While 5940 can act as trend changer on downside.

Most importantly remember - The best approach to trade this market has to take a day-to-day view.

OPENING – Seems under pressure and RED due to global cues.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6357

S – 6105 - 6020 – 5980- 5935 (Trend Changer level 5935 for Bears and 6357 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

04 Dec 13 – Delhi assembly election, PMI

05 Dec 13 – Beginning of Parliament’s winter session, US GDP, Nov. Auto sales No.

08 Dec 13 – State Assembly Result

17 Dec 13 – Fed meeting on 17 & 18 Dec.

18 Dec 13 – RBI Monetary Policy review, Nov Inflations, Oct Industrial output data,

Fed – Most probably it has postponed to March 14.

Santa Rally – Is on card.

OI Activity –

Buying by foreign institutional investors continued as they bought more than Rs 1,300 crore worth of shares.

Though domestic institutional investors were net sellers for the week with nearly Rs 1,000 crore of shares selling, they did buying (over Rs 300 crore) on Thursday for the first time since October 1.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

RIL –

Shares of Reliance Industries was up 1% to close at Rs861 on reports that Reliance Industries-BP combine is leading the race for picking up 25% stake in Gujarat government's planned LNG import terminal at Mundra.

LT –

L&T Construction won new orders worth Rs14.71bn across various business segments in November & December 2013.In Power Transmission & Distribution Business, orders valued Rs6.86bn have been received in both domestic & international markets. The stock was down 1.3% to close at Rs1056

MBC PL –

Dec. PL = +1500 (Old Profit) + 1550 (Y’day gain) = +3050

(Profit in TM 430CE = +1800, Axis short sell = +750, Abank CE = -1000)

Open Call –

Morning Bells (02 Dec 13)

Morning Bells (02 Dec 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A wise person knows not only what to LOOK but also knows what to OVERLOOK.

Dec series started with hefty gains, it’s a good sign as Nifty broke trading range. However experts are divided in two parts, one believes that market may fall and some expecting new high and few are also there who believes Nifty to gain 10% from here. So lets see what store in future.

I would suggest – market is holding its levels or can say its protecting its downside levels very well, but this week will be more important as now full of Dec have lot of important data and events. I am discussing few of them here, mainly what can affect our market.

It was a Black Friday when Nifty closed above 6150 mark and sensex reached near 21000 marks. Traders and investors were in high spirits as they got some idea about slightly better than expected GDP and fiscal deficit data for Apr-Oct which was scheduled to be released later in the day.

Many important economic data are coming out this week which includes the November manufacturing and Services PMI data and major port traffic data for the month April-November will be out. Auto numbers of November too will in focus at the start of the week.

The rally was broad based, largely led by stocks sensitive to interest rates and commodity stocks.

The rally was also helped by a decline in oil prices following the Iran nuclear deal and renewed buying by domestic investors helped reverse the bearish trend.

There was short covering and buying in anticipation of a BJP-win in at least three state elections out of five, also boosted sentiment.

GDP -

Gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 4.8% in the second quarter of current fiscal. GDP grew at 4.4% in first quarter of current fiscal. Central Statistical Organization released the official GDP estimates for second quarter.

Here you need to understand GDP, Gross Domestic Product or GDP represents the economic health of a country. It presents a sum of a country's production which consists of all purchases of goods and services produced by a country and services used by individuals, firms, foreigners and the governing bodies. 

GDP consists of consumer spending, Investment expenditure, government spending and net exports hence it portrays an all inclusive picture of an economy because of which it provides an insight to investors which highlights the trend of the economy by comparing GDP levels as an index.

India's economic performance has proved to be a major disappointment in recent times, with GDP growth decelerating from above 9 % in 2010 to as low as 4.4% in the April-June quarter.

Growth data for the July-September quarter show the economy grew at 4.8 percent, better than the 4.4 percent in the first quarter but slower than the 5.2 percent a year ago.

SO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT SHOWS INDIA’S ECONOMY IS TRYING TO COMING ON TRACK AND CAN BE CONSIDERED POSITIVE FOR MARKET TIME BEING BUT FOCUS WILL REMAIN POLL RESUTLS ONLY.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

December F&O series started on strong note on signs that domestic institutions are buying once again. Metals, banks and power companies have been leading, but bouts of profit-booking is evident at peaks. Anticipation of positive news relating to opinion polls and extremely favourable global cues is boosting the market sentiment.

Here one can have a look to midcap stocks for great earnings as I don’t see good profit in large caps. One can also turn more bullish on the market if Nifty manages to breach 6,215 today for target above 6300 with small hurdle somewhere around 6250. The Nifty is now trading very close to the resistance of 6,200-6,210 and if previous stop is crossed one can expect approx 100 points upmove from here. Short-term traders can maintain a positive bias.

Most importantly remember - The best approach to trade this market has to take a day-to-day view.

OPENING – Can be flat.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S – 6020 – 5980- 5935 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

04 Dec 13 – Delhi assembly election, PMI

05 Dec 13 – Beginning of Parliament’s winter session, US GDP, Nov. Auto sales No.

08 Dec 13 – State Assembly Result

17 Dec 13 – Fed meeting on 17 & 18 Dec.

18 Dec 13 – RBI Monetary Policy review, Nov Inflations, Oct Industrial output data,

Fed – Most probably it has postponed to March 14.

Santa Rally – Is on card.

OI Activity –

Buying by foreign institutional investors continued as they bought more than Rs 1,300 crore worth of shares.

Though domestic institutional investors were net sellers for the week with nearly Rs 1,000 crore of shares selling, they did buying (over Rs 300 crore) on Thursday for the first time since October 1.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Banking Segment –

If further momentum continues then from Pvt. Banking segment Yes Bank and Axis bank to give good returns.

Power Grid –

The company aims to raise around Rs 6,690-7,083 crore at a price band of Rs 85-90 apiece through this issue that comprises of fresh issue by company and offer for sale by government of India.

MBC PL –

Nov PL = +1500 (1500 Loss in M&M, 2500 gain in IDFC) = +1500

Open Call –

Morning Bells (25 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Thought of the day – Miss anything for your best life but don’t miss best life for anything.

So we are into expiry week, a year back I was an expiry expert and was making good money but since I turned to swing trading that thrill went out. Also when brokers come tricky your position stated making loss due to false panic signals. Well I strongly recommend that if you are not sure always stay away from market in expiry week (or make only few low value bets only) because this is true that in the expiry week either you are hero or zero.

Right now market and specially FIIs turning cautious ahead of state election which will give you a small picture of possibility for Gen. Election in May 2014 (A probability).

Well, The Indian equity market ended off day’s low on Friday with the NSE Nifty just managing to close above the 6000 mark. The benchmark indices which remained under constant pressure throughout the day saw a sudden bounce back amid late buying in the index heavyweights like L&T, Tata Steel, ONGC and Cairn India.

The sugar companies continued to remain in the limelight on hopes that government committee may decide to announce financial assistance for struggling sugar mills as well as an increase in import duties on raw sugar to halt cheaper imports and strengthen domestic prices.

GLOBAL FRONT – EMs V/S INDIA

On global front, the development is a bit disappointing for our country, The sweeping reforms in China along with political uncertainty in India will impact the FII flows into India as re-rating of China would attract more incremental flows into that country.

Also developed economies, especially Europe, are attracting lot of inflows and are on top of the radar of the global fund managers. Result reflected in Sebi’s FII flow data, some USD 633 million has flown into China last week while on a four week basis India has seen outflows of some USD 344 million.

US Index -

US index is making new record every week and its not showing any kind of weakness right now. Historically Dec. always seems a strong month for US economy.

Fed Tapering –

If we look to this statement then sentiment to remain subdued till March 14.

Investors are skeptical over the prospects for a December tapering of stimulus, preferring to focus on March as the starting point for a reduction in the flow of Treasuries and mortgage bonds bought by the Fed, said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

But for US Santa Claus rally is on card.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Ahead of State Assembly result which is due on Dec. 8 I do not see longs rollover, we all also know very well that during the expiry week fundamentals normally don’t works and are ignored by F&O dynamics.

So if you remember my old statement (later I got some confusion for a week’s time but now again seems I should stick to my old view) Nov. expiry seems below Oct’s high and FII outflow trend to continue till next 2-3 weeks starting beginning Dec. expiry.

So most probably FII flow to remain subdued as well as we may see some profit bookings by FIIs fund managers in Dec. to give a fresh start around Santa claus rally or say new year bash.

So probably no strong efforts seem for upmove and giving picture of range bound sessions ahead for few sessions.

Be cautious with 5970 & 5935, breaking of 5970 will wash out of bulls hopes while 5935 will intensify offloading and Nifty can test next stop 5755/5600 while on upside 6230 will again act as strong resistance.

I strongly believe (for high risk takers) that its time to sell OTM CEs and PEs, profit will be less but could be a sure bet. Like we can sell 62CE and 59PE.

OPENING – Can be uncertain mean flat and then market will look for cues to move further.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S – 6020 – 5980- 5935 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

08 Dec 13 – State Assembly Result

OI Activity –

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

If market supports then Telecom and OMCs are good bet. Also from Metal sectors TS is one I would like to play.

FRL –

Future Retail was down nearly 7% to Rs73.5 after report said that National Stock Exchange (NSE) decided to remove the stock from future and options (F&O) contract from January 31, 2014 onwards.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -7400 + 600 (1200 Loss in NMDC, 1600 gain in Nifty PEs) = -7000

Open Call –

Morning Bells (22 Nov 13)

Morning Bells (22 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Thought of the day – Miss anything  for your best life but don’t miss best life for anything.

It was completely unpredictable day for me, people are saying it fell down due Fed tapering indication, but it was already cleared in last Fed meeting that they will scale down in next few meetings then what made this fall so deep.

It was not just profit booking but its offloading which is very dangerous. Now experts are just hoping that like last time when Nifty will find support around current level.

The fall can also be attributing to weakness in rupee and rising government bond yields. Data from China showing slower growth in the manufacturing sector also hampered the investing mood.

The news also not in favour - Meanwhile, according to Fitch Ratings, India's narrowing current account deficit will not be enough to shield the country from pressures tied to Fed tapering, reports Reuters.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

So all of sudden it turned to negative, may be this statement help the bulls - "The taper will occur well after the first quarter in 2014," Christopher Palmer of Henderson Global said.

So no outlook at the moment just a wise advice, most probably Nifty to hold 5980 (on closing) and if it breaks 5950 decisively then we may see steep fall and next stop will be somewhere around 5600-5700 mean we will be there from where this fund flow rally was started.

OPENING – Can be uncertain mean flat and then market will look for cues to move further.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S – 6020 – 5980 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

OI Activity –

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

FRL –

Future Retail was down nearly 7% to Rs73.5 after report said that National Stock Exchange (NSE) decided to remove the stock from future and options (F&O) contract from January 31, 2014 onwards.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -7400 + 600 (1200 Loss in NMDC, 1600 gain in Nifty PEs) = -7000

Open Call –