Friday 31 January 2014

Morning Bells (31 Jan 14)



Morning Bells (30 Jan 14)
Good Morning Friends.

The trouble with the world is that… the stupid are full of confidence and the intelligent are full of doubts.

Royale Casino – was a perfect name for y’day. It did like that only, no would have thought that 6050CE would bounce from 1.5 to 24, TM 350CE would bounce from 0.8 to 14.

It was one of finest day for us as I was sure what’s going to happen today and it moved on expected lines. Very rare you get such opportunity when you remain confident about your trades and that was the reason we didn’t squared off CEs even they went down to almost 10% but it bounced back. Such trades called CONFIDENT TRADES, even levels were too perfect whether it was HCL Tech or TM or Nifty.

I didn’t find any call writer on board else I had so many trades on that counter.

Well, welcome to new expiry. Nothing to assure here, just have a look to some key fact which will decide further course of market direction.

Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke, in its last meeting as a chairman, reduced monthly bond purchases by another USD 10 billion to USD 65 billion while upgrading assessment of economy’s performance.
The market is worried because the inflow of foreign money may come down going forward as the Fed said the tapering will continue. The tapering may push foreign capital outflow from emerging markets, but that (tapering) is bullish for emerging markets, experts believe.
Some FIIs still says they are not worried about market reaction to Fed taper and emerging market slide. They expect healthy returns from emerging markets like India in 2014.
Another jolt for the market was China’s Markit/HSBC final manufacturing PMI for January that dipped to 49.5 from December's 50.5, the lowest in last six months. It highlighted that the business conditions for China's manufacturers worsened in January and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
Meanwhile, the rupee closed at 62.56 against the US dollar, down 15 paise compared to previous day's closing value.
Foreign institutional investors have net sold Rs 430.20 crore worth of shares today while domestic institutional investors bought Rs 132 crore of shares, as per provisional data available on the NSE.
DAY IT WAS -
Traders and investors preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of the F&O expiry. The Fed’s also dampened the sentiment.

MARKET OUTLOOK -
Now two views, as Nifty bounced from our level 6020 so we can expect Nifty to move some level of 6230 and or it may test levels 6020-5980-5940. So just take a look at market first and then decide your course of action.

But on broad basis it would remain sell on rally till it don’t turn into pre-election rally.

Till now we are in MG’s trading range -
Now resistances are 6235- 6330 – 6357 - 6415 and supports are 6235-6140/6110-6020/5980.

FINAL WORD -
As told I turned bearish on market with small trades till Nifty don’t come out of range. Also its suggesting that shorts can be taken at higher levels or say its sell on rise market. Keep SL 6141/6235 for shorts and for longs 6020/5980.

EVENT CALENDER –
27 Jan    – Q3 HUL
28 Jan    – RBI monetary review policy / Q3 – Maruti, SesaSter, JSPL, NTPC
29 Jan    - Q3 - BhartiAirtel, GAIL
30 Jan    - Q3 - HeroMoto
31 Jan    - Fiscal Deficit No. / Q3 - BHEL, IDFC, Lupin, PNB

TRADE IDEAS–
HeroMoto –
Hero Motocorop, which announced Q3 earnings after market hours, slipped 3.5 percent. The world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer reported 7.5 percent growth (year-on-year), less-than-expected, in net profit at Rs 524.6 crore in the quarter gone by, impacted by higher tax rate, raw material cost and advertisement spends.

AshokLey –
Commercial Vehicle maker Ashok Leyland on Thursday launched two new light commercial vehicles (LCVs) -- PARTNER truck and MiTR bus, an LCV bus, the latest offering from the Ashok Leyland-Nissan JV stable.

The company said it is taking efforts to expand exports and is looking to increase its footprint in the LCV segment. “The new launches will help fill the gap in product portfolio,” said V Sumantran, Vice-Chairman, Ashok Leyland.

BOI –
Public sector lender Bank of India disappointed street with the third quarter net profit falling 27 percent to Rs 586 crore on account of higher provisions. Net interest income grew 17.8 percent, slightly higher-than-expected, to Rs 2,719 crore in the quarter ended December 2013 as against Rs 2,308 crore in same quarter last year.

OPEN CALL -

Jai Hind.
Be on board. Have a profitable day.

Sunday 19 January 2014

Morning Bells (20 Jan 14)



Morning Bells (20 Jan 14)
Good Morning Friends.

Each moment in life is like a picture which you have never seen before & which you will never see again. So enjoy & live it king size, make each moment of your life beautiful.

Fact file - Markets will do what they want to do. Our task as traders is to follow the market, and understand that sometimes, the markets give us nothing!

Once again Nifty is giving confused signals, if see Nifty attempted 6330 and failed to give any breakout, mean failed to sustain (remember that’s I had told you it need to close for 2 successive days above the level to take fresh longs), same way its failed to give us breakdown i.e. bouncing from our level 6220. Which itself telling us clearly that participant are confused and that’s Nifty is repeatedly coming to trading range. So its in a small range of 6200-6350. And now I guess you all know what to do it any clear direction.

Now since its back from false breakout of 6330 and Bankex turning bearish which means market to remains choppy and a bit under pressure. A sudden spike is not ruled out as I am expecting since long and we saw few spikes on both side.

We are also entered to last 2 weeks of expiry so there would be many ups & downs and choppiness, this best time for options traders (yes if trades click right else white wash is there).

Now resistances are 6330 & 6357 and supports are 6220-6140-5980.

FINAL WORD -
Most of things are depend on OPENING. Here my trade strategy is simple, which is to follow trend, I wont go against trend, will also try to take some small risks. For option trader it’s a word of wisdom – either keep tight SL or a deep one mean don’t keep midway SL it would hurt you and you will lose only.

Also Nifty premium went down from +10 to Zero, open interest in both index CE & PE reduced. So OI activities giving view of range bound sessions and need to watch 6220-6200 closely.

RESULT CALENDER –
20 Jan – China GDP
22 Jan    – LT
23 Jan    – Cairn India, Global - US Jobless Claims, China PMI
24 Jan    – Sesa Sterlite

TRADE IDEAS–
Metal – JSW Steel & Sesa is expected to move up while Hindalco and TS will also see some strength. (Trend should be flat to positive)

OMCs – My first attempt went wrong in this, so lets hope if that is knocking the door now.

Reliance – Result are good and company have plant for further expansion, also Govt. also have good plan, so overall stock looks good. We had initiated 860CE around 10-12 but booked profit too early. And that’s again we initiated long straddle. We are also looking to bet on 880CE now, ofcourse if market supports else we would wait for dip in CE prices.

Bajaj Auto –
Looking good on chart as well as showing good strength, CMP 1933, it’s a good trade for active player, if it moves up from here i.e. 1936 onward we can expect 1965 & 2015. From below 1930 it may touch 1905 & 1860. So once you get good trading range one can always take risk and can make good money. Right now trend is on up side.

OPEN CALL -
Reliance – Long Straddle 920CE & 860PE @12 (combined premium) TG – Hold SL - NA

Be on board. Have a profitable day.

Sunday 12 January 2014

Morning Bells (13 Jan 14)



Morning Bells (13 Jan 14)
Good Morning Friends.

If you fail to achieve your dreams then change your ways not principles. Tree changes leave not roots.

Nothing new to say here, now its confirmed that Nifty is failed to sustain at higher levels, earlier it failed to save 6357 and now 6230. So it means Nifty finding support near 6140 and declining near 6230. Its also indication that its sinking to lower levels and preparing good base for futuristic bull run around election time. I have already suggested you that currently Nifty is in correction mode and its really difficult to trade in correction but one can always make small profit.

I would strongly suggest to take long position around 6150 and then just keep tight SL of 6100 while short which we have already holding can be carry with SL 6230 (short term) and 6270 (swinger), bull run will start only after 6330.

FINAL WORD -
This is kind of market where one need to trade both side and this opportunity is really rare and swinger can get benefit most.

So be with market breadth, I have already told you y’day that when Nifty will give attempt towards 6230 exit your risky longs as trend is still down i.e. market is in correction phase and there’s lot of strong resistance in between 6230-6270-6330-6357 while on downside only 2 support zones are there 6120 and then 6020.

TODAY’S HOT STUFF –
Metals (TS, JSW Steel, SesaSter, Hindalco) -
In TS (S 360-345) and Sesa (S 189), both moving around support so trend could be buy on dips in metal sector while JSW and Hindalco can find support near 109-105.

ITC –
Instead of disappointed and some exit form FMCG, on Friday some buying interest seen in FMCG. For low risk takers its good bet with SL 305. It’s a slow moving stock and wont hurt you much in either case, you just need to keep SL. And for investors its like a fearless bet. Just need to keep Nifty SL 5950 either to exit and re-enter or to average more.

JACKPOT –
UPL-
People who have patience I am betting on few stocks like UPL, its making new 52 week high every week and I guess it would make new high soon. Its also remember here, stock which move up continuously need a small correction in between to provide good base in long run. Most probably it wont break 195 or max 186.

TataComm –
Its really a good bet for people who can afford some time. For me its good bet with short term SL 293 and good buy around 262.

Few more stocks which will give you handsome profit according to market sentiment and are – Arvind, AuroPharma, TataGlobal on long side. LT & IDFC is just opportunity on news base and can really turned into big jackpot. AT for small gains say it may hit 118-120 levels in short term.

FOR THIS WEEK – HCL and Wipro and TCS are just looks attractive.

Banks – remain subdued (selecting), Can bank looks weak. I am out of banks since few months but if there’s any opportunity I will make profit intraday or STBT max, I wont carry it for long.

MY STATUS – I may be IN/OUT for next 2-3 days say from Monday to Wednesday.

Be on board. Have a profitable day.

WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT (New members must read)

WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT (New members must read)

This text is dedicated to all new friends who have joined me recently as my old fellows knew it very well.

Yes, lets decide what's more important for you, I mean to say what's more important for you PROFIT or TRADE?

In one word everybody will say "profit" but I have experienced that there's only one kind of people i.e. traders, though everybody will say profit is more important but then they dont follow rules to make profit.

SIMPLE RULES -

1. On first day of your trade set your honest TG, i.e. if you are investing 50K there then how much return you are expecting. (Do it honestly i.e. if big TG then you should have have alternate, I mean to say if you say I am expecting 50K return on 50K investment in one month then if I come to you and say I am giving you 50K please give me 80K after a month and 20K you can keep as your profit, certainly you will refuse, then why to expect it from market?) So dont gamble.

2. After setting up your TG, start reading good text, follow someone whom you believe, or just follow your researches. I mean to say you should have proper info about your trades, dont start trades if stock moving up or down. (Great Ex. y'day - when JPA was up 2%, I was short on it, it went down to 2.5%, so specific moves doesn't mean you will always make profit)

3. Wait for right time and right opportunity - Its most important which people never follow, they prove themselves as ADDICTED TO TRADE. They feel suffocation if they dont trade. (Such people can unfollow me). Because I always look for opportunity, till I dont find any good bet I dont trade, so waiting could be long but it doesn't mean to do anything just to try our luck every time, you could be lucky 2-3 times but I am sure YOU WOULD BE VERY UNLUCKY ONLY FOR ONE TIME - would be good enough to kick you out of market.

4. Have Patience - Once you achieve your daily/weekly/ monthly TG, just get out of it and enjoy with family.

5. Market need highly disciplined player - before entering trade you should set your SL, dont make false hopes once your trades start making loss, some times it bounce back but only 1-2 good incident will wash out your all profit and can put you into loss. Same way dont forget to book profit when it reaches to your TG. (Great ex. FRL - we had buy rating from 74 for TG 88-89, it went to 91 people start thinking it will move up more and more, just check CMP)

IN SHORT PATIENCE IS THE ONLY KEY - AND DONT HABITAT TO TRADE INSTEAD WAIT FOR RIGHT OPPORTUNITY.

GOOD LUCK... HAVE A PROFITABLE DAY

Friday 10 January 2014

YOUR LUCK V/S STOCK MARKET (Believe it or not)

Morning Bells (10 Jan 14)
Good Morning Friends,

Written at the reception of a corporate company – ‘We don’t pay you for having “Brains”, we only reward “you” for using them intelligently.

Today there's no MB but today's MB is important and must read by everyone who are in stock market. And subject is -

YOUR LUCK V/S STOCK MARKET (Believe it or not)

In recent I have come to so many experience which gave me above subject line. Whether you believe it or not but its true that -

1. Stock market fascinate lot of people, most of them find it as shortcut to make quick money in overnight.

2. Most of them also think that its easy and just need lot of money to multiple till they dont meet deep loss.

3. They always attract towards FNO as it require less money and returns are really handsome.

But what I experienced and seen that market is really a shortcut to make money if you have luck in gambling and in lottery, believe it or not. Let me explain here -

You all know before Dec. series I had come up with CHALLENGE 50K under Mini Billionaire Club with penny fee, it was one of the rare opportunity as during Oct & Nov series I found that Nifty is behaving exactly on my line and if it continues then I have lot of opportunity till April 2014.

Well it started and few people joined this MCB. Now where luck is -

1. I had T&C to trade on every call - more than 50% made choice. Today when I was having look to my call log, I see total profit of 62K (if one would have followed all calls) but its not case, many people remain offline more than 50% time, many avoided few calls as they were risky but finally those calls turned to jackpot. By all your blessing nobody is in loss in MCB but I am disappointed that people didn take advantage of golden opportunity. LUCK MATTERS.

There was another true incident y'day and confirmed that why luck is must in stock market, First I asked someone whether he's ready to take risk or not, he replied me yes, then I gave him call to buy FRL 90CE @3.7, even asked to buy more lots (max 3) then for next 5 min I didnt get reply from him. MEAN HE'D LOST OPPORTUNITY. Later he told me he was driving.

My 2 members follow my calls blindly and execute trades within 1 min., I typed message for him for same call but after 1 min I got to know that I have messaged to wrong person till then that CE was 4.5, I asked him to buy around 4.25, he placed order even CE price came down till 4.2 but his order didn't execute and then there's no stop for it and made 7.15 as high which means even at 4.5 there was 11K profit and for 3 lots it was 33K within 15 min. LUCK MATTERS.

So its really game of luck, I would strongly suggest - If you believe in Astro or any science then check before any big investment.

I also have another trick to know about it -

1. Just keep watch - whenever you enter to any trade, how long it take to make profit and how less it takes to make loss.

2. Which sector gives you most profit and most loss (repeat few times)

3. How many times you just ready to buy but somehow you didnt and then see that was golden opportunity.

4. How many times you loses patience and exit in panic and then those trades turned into profit.

5. How many times you want to follow someone's call but you miss it under fear.

6. How many times you are about to buy but your heart says NO and then you see your heart was right.

7. Last and important - what's your PL till today in % and whether its deep loss or small OR handsome profit or small profit.

RESULT -
Point 7 tells all story in short.

So believe it or not but check you luck before you enter to stock market. If luck is not supporting I would request them to leave trading immediately else life would be hell after 2-3 years. Instead they can message me, I would draft their port folio (free of cost) and they just need to see it as 5-7 year FD in Stock Market Bank.

Why I am suggesting to exit market -
Last year one boy from Pune contacted me saying "you are the only person who can save me now", he told me that he attracted to stock market and invested 1L, initially he made profit and it turned to 1.5L, then he lost all money during a big fall last year. He thought to recover losses as well as to make big money, he took loan against his all credit cards and put 5L into FNO, in 3 months he lost all. Now banks interest was there and he was unable to pay it, he's left with 50K only and asking me if he can recover losses in less time. THINK WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED WITH HIM.

I offered him help but told him that it will take time as its not rocket science. I gave him few calls but later he disappear as he's no time to meet his repayment.