Morning Bells (22 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life is not about the people who act true in front of you, its about the people who remain true behind you.

Oh, what a volatile day it was, went down 35 points, moved up 45 points and again went down 45 points. Many of you would have earned good chunk of money as many stocks also followed the wave and made a good up and down. I was in SunTV which made low of 392 from 418 then moved up 408 and then back to 382. Great!.

The whole day market was flowing with Govt.’s stand on Sri Lanka issue, finally Govt. went against Sri Lankan Govt. which wiped out DMK issue for withdrawing support from UPA, now again DMK stuck like Mamta Bannerjee who y’day made affirmative statement to support Govt.

So today market may see a good recovery and sharp bounce if DMK clears its stand on UPA support i.e. whether they will support Govt. from outside now or not. If yes then a good bounce can take place.

Again don’t get confuse with bounce, since market cracked, Cyprus fate is there on Monday, Italy also facing Govt. forming issue, so just use this bounce to exit your stuck positions or to take small risk PE options.

I was in the favour that this weakness actually forming a strong rally base which I am expecting in last 3 days of end of financial year. So lets see what is store in Nifty.

Well, coming to ground reality - Despite a positive start, the Indian equity market succumbed to intense selling towards the end recording its fifth straight dip. Earlier in the day, the Nifty had risen to the 5750 levels but came tumbling down as selling pressure resumed in Realty, Power, Capital Goods, Auto and Oil & gas stocks.

Gainers - Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Jindal Steel, Coal India, Gail India were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers - RIL, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Cipla, SBI, Mahindra & Mahindra, ITC, ONGC, BHEL were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Domestic Front –

5 Gas Blocks approved -

The Cabinet Committee on Investment in its meeting held on March 20, 2013, gave clearances for five Oil and Gas Exploration Blocks

Global Front –

Cyrpus Cause -

Until now people deposited money in banks for umpteen reasons like safety, savings, investments etc but Cyprus has changed all that!! The tiny island nation after being faced with a potential bust of its banks has turned to the savior European Union for bailout.

To be eligible for the 10 billion euro bailout proposed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, savers over 20,000 euro in the island nation would have to incur a levy of 6.5-10% on their deposits. But caving into protests from angry citizens, Cyprus’ Parliament rejected this proposal and has now turned to Russia for help.

Cyprus is a haven for billions of euro squirreled abroad by Russian businesses and individuals. Nearly one-third of total deposits are believed to be held by Russian customers.  This may have been a factor for the reluctance of Germany and other northern eurozone states in bailing it out without the contribution of bank depositors. EU and Germany argued that their taxpayers shouldn’t bailout a country when Russians would benefit from that.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Recall your memories  about 2 week back MBs, we had discussion about downside TG and support which was 5550 & 5650. Nifty exactly closed just above first strong support, either it will take a short term U turn from here or if broken then may test 5550 levels. Break of 5550 would be dangerous and would give a deeper knife pain. So if you are with low investment amount, be safe and play only intraday, even short time in intraday and try to book profit as quick as possible.

Y’day I went long in HDFC @798, exited 808, stock started moving up, was feeling sad, but after half an hour I was feeling great! Same you can say for our ICICI call when we booked profit @27 instead of 29, but see its closing price.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and ended at 16.51 against previous close of 16.66.

FNO PCR is 0.92 against previous close 0.95.

Indian Rupee – Rupee remained flat, gained 8 paisa and was trading at 54.28 against its previous close of 54.36.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1549.47 down 9.24 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5838 – 5797 – 5728 and Support – 5618 – 5578 – 5508 (Pivot 5688)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6144 – 6057 – 5965 and Supports – 5785 – 5698 - 5606

Opening – Seems flat and under pressure till parliament session development.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

L&T –

L&T Construction has won new orders valued over Rs20.80bn across various business segments in February and March 2013.

The Building & Factories Business has bagged new orders worth Rs1385 crores for the construction of residential towers in cities in North India

SAIL –

The offer for sale (OFS) price of steel major SAIL (Steel Authority of India), which will hit the market tomorrow, is reportedly fixed at Rs. 63, according to reports.

TM –

Tata Motors plunged 4% to close at ~Rs273 after reports stated that tough emission norms in China could potentially hit its luxury car maker unit Jaguar Land Rover.

BhartiAirtel -

Bharti Airtel surged by 6% to close at Rs297. The telecom giant launched its fourth generation (4G) mobile broadband services in Panchkula, Mohali and Chandigarh.

The stock fell over 5% in the previous session after a court summon was sent to promoter Sunil Mittal for his alleged role in the 2G scam case.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +12,200 + 1250 (ICICI CE profit) = +13,450

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +32,650 + 9,000 = 41,650

(Profit in shorting SunTV)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Wait for first half an hour, lets market to decide its trend, and exit around EU if market shows strength.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (21 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Life will become much easier when we finally understand  which hand is to shake and which is to hold.

Hi, I was about to reply to your query about market, but thought that this could be part of MB. Also I am giving more and more time to catch all possible new in MB but sometimes it gives me feeling that most of you are not reading it, so just thought that rather than to catch news, we will just discuss the market for today and lets see whether people like it or not.

Well, regarding market outlook - we need to understand the cause, global market doesn't affect our market that much but this time its dual attack, one DMK pull out support and secondly worry about Cyprus.

If you analyze - both are false i.e. neither Cyprus is going to out of EU nor UPA going to fall, then what's affecting most?

Recall Morning bells of Dec. second half and Jan. first half, I had warned you all repeatedly –

(A) Exit your longs 50% either end of the year or in the first week of Jan.

(B) Exit all your longs before RBI announcement in Jan. itself.

(C) Since Oct. 12 to till Jan 13 first half – EU worry is not over.

What all meant? Reason was simple, we all are in market to earn something, then what about big investors? Specially FIIs? They invested in our market throughout the year, market went to 6100 from 4700 (Nifty), nobody even can believing that time that Nifty will climb 1400 odd points in just 8 months. So what’s wrong when big investors came for profit booking.

The first clear signal was when small cap to mid cap index was butchered, DII was on selling counter since Dec. and since DII was on sell counter, planning for FII failed, they hold market for another 2 months and when they get a sign, they did for what they were waiting.

Now comes to sentiment and technical -

Companies which are connected to DMK either way are the targets, like today Mannapuram and HDIL. Secondly most important facts is that now govt. is weak, they need to think twice before making any bold decision, and this is the most important point which is hurting market.

Overall, as informed many times, trend is down, its sell on rise or rally. For March, it should hold 5710 / 5650 / 5550 (read 2 weeks back MBs, you will get all levels with warning bell) as book closer is near so just hope market wont fall much from here (don’t take it as it will rise, small bounces are always part of movement)

So, that’s all from my end.

Hope you all got my point.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.05% and ended at 16.66 against previous close of 16.71.

FNO PCR is 0.95 against previous close 1.18.

Indian Rupee – Rupee remained and was trading at 54.36 against its previous close of 54.37.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1556.97 up 8.63 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5970 – 5917 – 5831 and Support – 5692 – 5636 – 5553 (Pivot 5777)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6144 – 6057 – 5965 and Supports – 5785 – 5698 - 56006

Opening – Seems flat and market go range bound.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Banking Sector –

Banking sector or can say rate sensitive stocks can try to show some strength. Not all, keep eye on south best (DML influence) stock and avoid them for time being.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +12,200

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +32,650

(-2100, Loss in Hindalco CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market may seems range bound, go for cautious approach.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (20 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Beautiful fact about the World - Once they stop talking to you, they start talking about you..

Oops, another turbulent day in just 3 weeks, it was 3^rd day in past 3 weeks when market went down sharply. Nifty ended below the 5750 mark. While the RBI obliged to support the government’s growth agenda by cutting Repo rate by 25 basis points, the tone remained hawkish. The DMK drama took the market and Parliament by storm resulting in a market collapse which saw the Nifty ending near day’s low plunging over 100 points in intra-day trade.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), the state political party of Tamil Nadu on Tuesday announced that it has withdrawn its support to the UPA government and pulled out five of its Central ministers over the issue of alleged human rights violations of Tamils in Sri Lanka.

DMK chief, M Karunanidhi, however, kept a window open of returning to the alliance, saying it was ready to reconsider it if Parliament adopts a resolution before March 21 incorporating the two amendments he had suggested to be moved on the US-backed resolution at the UN Human Rights Commission.

RBI Monitory Policy -

With political developments, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting turned out to be a complete non-event as market participants completely ignored the reduction of key interest rates. The RBI in its mid-quarter monetary policy review on Tuesday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% for the second time since the start of the year. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was kept unchanged.

Welcome to Repo Cut -

The Reserve Bank of India in its mid-quarter policy review earlier today cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5%. It left the cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4%. It also guided limited headroom to ease rates due to persistently high inflation.

Reactions to the RBI policy move were muted as the cut was on expected lines but the guidance does not seem to have perturbed the industry too much.

More Room is there -

The RBI has obliged on the Government’s call to the Central Banker to support its growth agenda by cutting Repo rate by 25 basis points. An improvement in trade deficit, drop in core inflation, achievement of 5.2% fiscal deficit and slowing growth prompted RBI to act. These front ended cuts in 2013 (50 bps in Repo and 25bps in CRR) are a welcome step and will help bring down interest rates in the medium term. Having said that, immediate monetary transmission on account of the Repo cut is difficult due to liquidity tightness in the system. 

Reaction –

A cautious Reserve Bank of India has cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5% in its mid-quarter policy review. The move was in line with market expectations. It has also left the cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4%.

The repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends money to commercial banks. It is an instrument of monetary policy. Whenever banks have any shortage of funds they can borrow from the RBI. A reduction in the repo rate helps banks get money at a cheaper rate and vice versa.

What may not go down too well with the street is its guidance that rising inflation levels may constrict its headroom to ease rates further. It expects headline inflation in FY14 to be rangebound around current levels. “Even as the policy stance emphasises addressing the growth risks, the headroom for further monetary easing remains quite limited,” an RBI release said.

Food Security Bill –

The Union cabinet on Tuesday cleared the changes in the Food Security Bill which will provide food subsidy to the poor. The bill promises provides secutity under the Antodaya Anna Yogana by continuing supply of 35Kg of food grain per month per family. The new changes are based on the recommendations of the Parlaimentary Standing Committee.

The changes introduced to the existing bill include uniform allocation of 5 kg foodgrains (per person) at fixed rates to a third of country, scrapping the priority and general classifications of beneficiaries.

The cabinet has also deferred its decision on sugar de-control. The government was expected to discuss abolishing the levy-sugar mechanism, in which private mill owners are expected to sell a specified amount of sugar to the government at a regulated rate.

Gainers – Wipro, Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, Maruti Suzuki, Gail India and ITC were among top gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, Coal India, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Dr Reddy’s Lab, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever, HDFC Bank, Hero Motocorp, Cipla, SBI, L&T and HDFC were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – S&P BSE 0.7%, Consumer Durables index 0.3% and Healthcare index up 0.3%. were the gainers, Even the S&P BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap index was down 0.29% and 0.67% respectively.

On Domestic Front –

1.

DMK - DMK has pulled out of Congress-led UPA government , according to reports.

5 DMK ministers to resign shortly,  according to reports

"We are in complete support of the Tamils in Sri Lanka," DMK supremo reportedly said.

Earlier reports stated that DMK slammed the Centre for its "lukewarm" response on the Sri Lankan Tamils issue and said there will be no outside support to UPA.

DMK, an ally of UPA since 2004, has 18 members in the Lok Sabha with one Cabinet minister and four junior ministers. "

"DMK ministers to quit the government either today or tomorrow, M Karunanidhi said.

There are reports that DMK has also demanded the inclusion of the terms 'genocide' and 'credible independent international probe into the war crimes' in the US-sponsored resolution against Colombo at the ongoing UN Human Rights Council meet in Geneva.

Finally, BSE Sensex closed at 19,008, down 285 points over the previous close. It had earlier touched a day's high of 19378 and a day's low of 18939. It opened at 19345.

On Global front –

1.

European stock markets have extended losses in early trades on Tuesday ahead of the vote on the bailout measures which is scheduled for later today. But there have been rumors that the vote could be postponed to later this week.

Markets have declined sharply amid worries over the bailout plan for Cyprus, which includes a controversial levy on bank deposits continues to haunt the market.

Trading on the Cyprus Stock Exchange has been suspended for two days, the exchange said.

The FTSE index in UK was down 0.3%, the CAC index in France was down 0.54% and the DAX index in Germany was down 0.52%.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As told on Tuesday that PCR at 1.35 isn’t good signal for market, CPI also diluted hopes of rate cut and y’day we had seen the impact of that.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 5% and ended at 16.71 against previous close of 15.85.

FNO PCR is 1.18 against previous close 1.05.

Indian Rupee – Rupee weakened by 20 paisa and was trading at 54.37 against its previous close of 54.17.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1555.55 up 3.40 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically, Nifty extended its weakness and closed below its 100-DMA (5,857), confirming a breakdown in the index after last week’s recovery. The undertone remains cautious and there is no point to taking any risky bets ahead of the RBI policy meet next week

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5970 – 5917 – 5831 and Support – 5692 – 5636 – 5553 (Pivot 5777)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6144 – 6057 – 5965 and Supports – 5785 – 5698 - 56006

Opening – Seems flat and market go range bound. On upside major resistance 5910 / 5925 / 5950 whiles support comes to 5750.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

RIL –

Reliance Industries Ltd is planning to invest $1 mn a day with partner BP Plc to look for new reserves more than a mile below its biggest field, according to reports.

Reliance and BP plan to invest more than $5 billion in five years to develop discovered gas deposits in the KG-D6 block off India’s east coast.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +12,200

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +34,750 – 2100 (Loss in Hindalco CE) = +32,650

(-2100, Loss in Hindalco CE)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market may seems range bound, go for cautious approach.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.