Hello,
Surprised by heading?? Yes its true, why I am here and why I am enjoying this blog, reason is simple - Every week I get many mails regarding problems due to stock market in their life, I get many comments here that I am increasing their morals and confidence here.
All TRUE - Life is what, "Moh Maya Se Man Ghabaraya", whenever I see happiness in your life, believe it or not, I get tears in my eyes, neither in professional way nor in any other way I am connect with you all here. I am just here to save, to bring happiness in most of life.
Yes sometimes I get irritate due to lot of PM for personal advice, but now people have reduced it, please remember I dont hate if you need personal advice, you can always ask but if its stock related then share it on board so others will to get benefit from it. We are here like a 1K (our daily visitor figure) family and somehow I have considered here as an elder member.
Always feel free to share personal info or calls or any other info (what I had told - no one can play your role in this world better than you), I am sure that way we will definitely learn something from you, no one is perfect in this world neither Bill Gates nor Ambanis (of course even not me), but they are successful because they just followed their dreams without putting their present in turmoil for few mistakes, they learned from their mistakes and they came with more force in next attempt.
So here I am sharing (summery) past few mails (please excuse me who have sent this to me, as it would be a great help for others) I got for seeking moral support as well as some counseling.
MESSAGE VIA MAIL -
MY REPLY TO ALL -
Yes we all have some dreams and its quite normal, as its human nature as well as key of success in life, without dream life is like a desert and no one can grow without dream. So everyone dream to grow but important is what he's done for his dream?
OK, to his view he's done a lot for his dream, then where was the problem? Problem was IMPATIENCE or you can say Fast Track. Do you think Bill Gates or Ambanis grown in a single series of market? Money multiplication with current money i.e. if you have 10K to invest it can be 20-30K but not 200-300K.
I congratulate this messenger that he's consider slow and steady growth as his target. But I want to highlight you all here most important side which I learned in my past.
After 2 unsuccessful attempt into market (say around 2L), then collect energy and come-up with 4L, it was Dec/jan and had set my TG for next 10 months, I wanted to buy Honda Jazz (newly launched, 8L) around Diwali time, i.e. I wanted to turn my 4L into 8L in next 11 Months. I calculated it as - 32K per month, 1500 per trading session, that was the calculation which could give me Honda Jazz.
Then I started trading with TG of 1500 per day (trading day, apprx 22 days in a month), first day I get 2800/- then 200, 600 etc, at weekend I check I was below 2500 of my TG. On Monday I set TG for 4K and taken big risk, made loss of 3K, then next day pressure was to earn 7K, then 15, then so on. Mean then I remain following for bigger TGs and finally I came up to Bike and then deep loss. :) Smile.
Remember above all is not story - all is experience which come after repeated mistakes and why I am spending so much time and wasting my weekends - just because like what we get from history books - i.e. how to grow and more importantly not to repeat mistakes which historian did in past. So whatever mistakes I did in my past in stock market, I assume that you wont repeat and will learn from those mistake (though its too difficult, LOL) so you would find yourself a step ahead in stock market.
Well coming to the point - what mistake I did in this case - first we are not doing job we are in business which do not have equal days, secondly its not a sales show room or you are not Sales Executive who need to settle no. of sales at the end of month. Meaning is simple - by chasing my sales no.s I lost even what I had (70%+ cases in stock market) then? One evening I was under deep thought I got this idea - what if I hadn't loosed those investment, I could be happy this moment because I hadn't had any pressure, I hadn't had any tension to recover.
YES, this was the idea which clicked and somehow I started trading again - now my mission was not to recover those huge losses but was to save my investment. I started avoiding many trading sessions and did some small trades. End of month I found that atleast I got more than interest rate what popular lending individuals are charging i.e. around 4-5%.
So I started slowly-slowly, initially I gain with slow pace and then started taking risk, since I had earned some amount so I hadn't had fear to loose, I started taking risk for what I had earned. Some trades went wrong and some of them were good, finally I started making a respectable amount and more importantly I got success to save my investment.
What we can learn from this -
1. Never chase your losses, instead look for what you can gain today.
2. If not feeling comfortable just sit finger crossed and do paper trading. Yes I know in most of cases your trades go up because we are tension less whether its going up or not. But yes we feel sorry - we hadn't traded for that.
3. In trading in FNO - Time, Entry at correct level and Patience & Stop Loss are the key word for grand success.
(A) Time - I remember I was watching Bank of Baroda since long and had thought that if it breakdown 774 then it will go down to 756 and wanted to short Fut. Oct. 12 series (recent case and shared this to few of BC members) I was sitting quite, BOB was hovering exactly at 774, one of them asked what to do, I said just wait if it goes to 772. Oops!! it touched just for a second at 772 and then went back to 780, I saved myself because after that it went to 800+. So time give you best result - Moral - dont hurry, why I enter to trade only after 10.00 because in most of cases say in 70%+ cases market is not what we see at the opening (see even today's case, mkt turn from RED to GREEN) but what happened in later part we all know.
(B) Entry at Correct Level - When we look for entry at correct level mean More Profit and Less Loss. Like last week I was looking to enter DLF (for TG 207), it was hovering around 200, I visited DLF board on MCB everybody was telling it will close 205, I felt that first it will have dip, I posted message that today its going down to 195, many laugh there, I was quietly watching DLF it went to 202 (in this case few of us definitely had entered by seeing its moving up) but my policy is if we miss the bus its OK. Then after 2.30 it reaches to 196, I entered, next day I exited 205. So made more profit then who entered at 200-202.
Y'day I wanted to enter Dish TV Future as deal seems cleared, I set TG 79 and entry level 76-76.3, it started moving up to around 76.8 but I get chance to execute it 76.3 (Less 2K), after 2PM market went down and dish went to 75.5 and finally closed at 76. In this situation my Loss ratio is less then what people would have entered above 76.5.
What I want to say in this case by entering to correct level reduce your losses as we all dont know where stock can go further and if it move up then this would be my profit.
(C) Stop Loss - SL comes as life savior in equal cases, sometimes all of sudden news or sector development create wild swing in stock like what happened y'day with RIL and Dabur when IAC announced some allegation. Dabur was 130 good SL was 128, it went to 124, this even small fall, specially in small to mid cap this fall could be circuit like what is happening in KFA since long, what has happned in DLF.
People who dont use SL end their trading experience with deep pain at the end of series or end of quarter or at the end of their trading life. In some cases stock gain again but its fully depend on quality of stock. Like what happened with ZEEL, around Oct. series expiry it was around 200 then it went to 196 SL was 189, we entered then it fell down due to Jindal case to 174 but today its again 196, some people didnt use SL but luckily get chance to exit at cost.
But what my thought in this case is - if I had exited the position at 189 I could have entered again around 179 and today I could have made great profit as stock had good support above 177 level.
This is great lesson - rather than to wait to come at to buying level, exit with SL, but it at lower level and make profit in same range.
(D) Patience - Well its almost related to SL, some stock maintain good support at a bit lower levels, like Dabur at 122.4, Cairn India at 323. So when we enter to such sctock and if it goes down then we should have patience stock will move up.
What I have noticed - people have great patience (I had too, but not now in this situation) when stock goes in reverse direction i.e. in loss because this time HOPES provide them moral support that scrip will come in profit one day, and they remain waiting for upside which not happened specially in small-mid caps, and even in blue chips if market sentiment not support.
But when time come to wait for good profit - they just book small profit, I have many experienced of this situation specially with BC members, even if all have remembers what has happened with us for Axis call & SBI call, small impatience took away our profit of 15K (and I had mentioned that time this is Diwali Bonus) but I too got under pressure by repeated questioning and impatience behavior and suggested to exit. If SL is shared (or if modified) then there is no need to ask repeated and no need to show impatience in between, this definitely reduces our profitability.
Remember - no once is master, yes my trades too go wrong but I believe in final result at the end of expiry, and it shouldn't be loss is my priority, no matter if I have missed the bus and made little profit, but I remain happy as I am gaining. As told many times I can too make those fours & sixes, but they always come up with risk of catch out, bold out, stumped. So if people feel comfortable we can do like that too, but it need is to follow every strategy, but sometime they avoid some calls, so on selective basis its not possible.
So this all which I wanted to share with you all.
MY TAKE -
Don't get nervous, ups & downs are part of stock market. As told many time just give me your 5 years, I want to assure you (though cant gurantee because its stock market, LOL) after 5 years you will be happy by whatever you will achieve. We will definitely achieve at least 10 millionaire. We all could have Millionaire/Billionaire if we stick to Trade System i.e. away from emotions, uses of TG & SL and above all trust for suggested trades.
Heart patient & low risk takers always keep themselves away from FNO as this is main cause of loss, FNO require great patience and also have tendency to bear loss if trade goes in wrong direction.
Cash is always suggested, slow and steady gain is always keep peace of mind.
Remove this thought from your mind - that one can be a millionaire in stock market in overnight. People who are making 50K to 1L or above in stock market, just ask them about their investment figure, definitely it would be around 5L+ while most of us are playing below 1L, then how you can look for that returns.
Look for long term and not for short term else you will end your trade experience with deep loss and lot of pain.
SHAPATH (OATH) - WE WILL FOLLOW TRADE SYSTEM & WILL KEEP EMOTIONS ASIDE IN STOCK MARKET. DEFINITELY ONE DAY WE WILL BE AT LEAST MILLIONAIRE. :)
I also hope some of you would be helping us in smart way to bring more facilities for you (told last week), as now time has come to tell you about good news on Diwali day.
Good Luck & Have Profitable Day.
================ Market outlook ==================
My reply to one of my friend, just sharing with you all
I am just watching following levels - 5685 - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630, for me trend is still buy on dips, yes we will gain with slow pace.
Few points to take care and included in view -
1. As told Obama is positive for EMs and specially for India. On broad basis if you see, nothing has changed globally, we are in same situation, instead good news are there like - Obama is sure for 2nd term, Greece got breather, next is Spain.
2. Home ground - Reforms already announced, now looking for physical viability i.e. it will be when foreign investment come to projects related to reforms, meaning more money is coming to India.
3. Repeatedly expressed - commodity are going out of bull phase and will go down, which will benefit most to India, oil prices coming down, which is quite positive for India.
So overall it was just a reaction of big corporates to Obama in US as he seems real politician and going to benefit common man. (had posted a good report before FDI announcement on MCB, i.e. why those reforms announced in hurry and what will be its impact in long run, had posted on PNR board)
So if above all reason go wrong then I dont find any reason for sustainability and as we know its all liquidity driven rally, and Nifty is here more due to small-mid caps and not due to large caps, so first if 5580 breakdown, there're I think 4 Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 by filling the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash.
Bull market will be in deep pain as then here onward (if breakdown that levels) we dont have any good calender to move further, growth will be slow down (i.e. new high funda will be washed out) as in a year's time we have election, and now dont have any new announcement which can boost the market, as we dont react to global market that much in both situation UP & Down.
Above all just a word of caution - once Nifty makes new high, we should be careful with FII, as first they fueled our mkt with cash and then with a silly reason they go away with cash at least once in a year, so just keep this also in mind. I dont see it too early may be around March/April +/- 2 months or just right now.
Regarding your 300 points - I was talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.
Surprised by heading?? Yes its true, why I am here and why I am enjoying this blog, reason is simple - Every week I get many mails regarding problems due to stock market in their life, I get many comments here that I am increasing their morals and confidence here.
All TRUE - Life is what, "Moh Maya Se Man Ghabaraya", whenever I see happiness in your life, believe it or not, I get tears in my eyes, neither in professional way nor in any other way I am connect with you all here. I am just here to save, to bring happiness in most of life.
Yes sometimes I get irritate due to lot of PM for personal advice, but now people have reduced it, please remember I dont hate if you need personal advice, you can always ask but if its stock related then share it on board so others will to get benefit from it. We are here like a 1K (our daily visitor figure) family and somehow I have considered here as an elder member.
Always feel free to share personal info or calls or any other info (what I had told - no one can play your role in this world better than you), I am sure that way we will definitely learn something from you, no one is perfect in this world neither Bill Gates nor Ambanis (of course even not me), but they are successful because they just followed their dreams without putting their present in turmoil for few mistakes, they learned from their mistakes and they came with more force in next attempt.
So here I am sharing (summery) past few mails (please excuse me who have sent this to me, as it would be a great help for others) I got for seeking moral support as well as some counseling.
MESSAGE VIA MAIL -
Thank you MG sir for sharing this,
Sorry for sharing my emotion again, i know it will eat your some
time but still sharing. Now a days i'm bit confused and nurvous too due
to some 2-3 blunder made by me (not related to your call) in october
and september series. So i'm trying to regain my confidence and not to
reiterate same mistakes again. Today i revisited my Total Losses in
Share market till Now 1.5 Lakh ( F&O). Last year cash market losses
are covered. So keeping this in mind and then i'm targeting may be slow
& steady win the race.
If i target this diwali to next diwali to cover then i need 15K per
month, with your suggetion, i think can be covered. Only i need to
avoid random transactions, transaction with given thought is OK even
though end up with loss.
I may keep 2 Lakh aside for this purpose to gain 15k per month.
What i need probably till then i regain my confidence, you can push me
that go for this transaction. I know this is not possible in share
market as we can just predict can't gurantee.
What happening with me when i get 2K in trade i get excited and
try to luck again without given proper thought. Also, i know when i
tried to put transaction with cautious note then probably i get my 1-2 K
per trade easily. Yes there are many time when we can't guess properly
there risk is envlove or can avoid traiding that time. Till now i feel
comfortable witMh taking 2K profit with per trade (if + ve). so for me
it's OK if get small gain per trade, i know some time we can get good
trade which will increase profitability.
Thanks, please counsel me this weekend :) .
MY REPLY TO ALL -
Yes we all have some dreams and its quite normal, as its human nature as well as key of success in life, without dream life is like a desert and no one can grow without dream. So everyone dream to grow but important is what he's done for his dream?
OK, to his view he's done a lot for his dream, then where was the problem? Problem was IMPATIENCE or you can say Fast Track. Do you think Bill Gates or Ambanis grown in a single series of market? Money multiplication with current money i.e. if you have 10K to invest it can be 20-30K but not 200-300K.
I congratulate this messenger that he's consider slow and steady growth as his target. But I want to highlight you all here most important side which I learned in my past.
After 2 unsuccessful attempt into market (say around 2L), then collect energy and come-up with 4L, it was Dec/jan and had set my TG for next 10 months, I wanted to buy Honda Jazz (newly launched, 8L) around Diwali time, i.e. I wanted to turn my 4L into 8L in next 11 Months. I calculated it as - 32K per month, 1500 per trading session, that was the calculation which could give me Honda Jazz.
Then I started trading with TG of 1500 per day (trading day, apprx 22 days in a month), first day I get 2800/- then 200, 600 etc, at weekend I check I was below 2500 of my TG. On Monday I set TG for 4K and taken big risk, made loss of 3K, then next day pressure was to earn 7K, then 15, then so on. Mean then I remain following for bigger TGs and finally I came up to Bike and then deep loss. :) Smile.
Remember above all is not story - all is experience which come after repeated mistakes and why I am spending so much time and wasting my weekends - just because like what we get from history books - i.e. how to grow and more importantly not to repeat mistakes which historian did in past. So whatever mistakes I did in my past in stock market, I assume that you wont repeat and will learn from those mistake (though its too difficult, LOL) so you would find yourself a step ahead in stock market.
Well coming to the point - what mistake I did in this case - first we are not doing job we are in business which do not have equal days, secondly its not a sales show room or you are not Sales Executive who need to settle no. of sales at the end of month. Meaning is simple - by chasing my sales no.s I lost even what I had (70%+ cases in stock market) then? One evening I was under deep thought I got this idea - what if I hadn't loosed those investment, I could be happy this moment because I hadn't had any pressure, I hadn't had any tension to recover.
YES, this was the idea which clicked and somehow I started trading again - now my mission was not to recover those huge losses but was to save my investment. I started avoiding many trading sessions and did some small trades. End of month I found that atleast I got more than interest rate what popular lending individuals are charging i.e. around 4-5%.
So I started slowly-slowly, initially I gain with slow pace and then started taking risk, since I had earned some amount so I hadn't had fear to loose, I started taking risk for what I had earned. Some trades went wrong and some of them were good, finally I started making a respectable amount and more importantly I got success to save my investment.
What we can learn from this -
1. Never chase your losses, instead look for what you can gain today.
2. If not feeling comfortable just sit finger crossed and do paper trading. Yes I know in most of cases your trades go up because we are tension less whether its going up or not. But yes we feel sorry - we hadn't traded for that.
3. In trading in FNO - Time, Entry at correct level and Patience & Stop Loss are the key word for grand success.
(A) Time - I remember I was watching Bank of Baroda since long and had thought that if it breakdown 774 then it will go down to 756 and wanted to short Fut. Oct. 12 series (recent case and shared this to few of BC members) I was sitting quite, BOB was hovering exactly at 774, one of them asked what to do, I said just wait if it goes to 772. Oops!! it touched just for a second at 772 and then went back to 780, I saved myself because after that it went to 800+. So time give you best result - Moral - dont hurry, why I enter to trade only after 10.00 because in most of cases say in 70%+ cases market is not what we see at the opening (see even today's case, mkt turn from RED to GREEN) but what happened in later part we all know.
(B) Entry at Correct Level - When we look for entry at correct level mean More Profit and Less Loss. Like last week I was looking to enter DLF (for TG 207), it was hovering around 200, I visited DLF board on MCB everybody was telling it will close 205, I felt that first it will have dip, I posted message that today its going down to 195, many laugh there, I was quietly watching DLF it went to 202 (in this case few of us definitely had entered by seeing its moving up) but my policy is if we miss the bus its OK. Then after 2.30 it reaches to 196, I entered, next day I exited 205. So made more profit then who entered at 200-202.
Y'day I wanted to enter Dish TV Future as deal seems cleared, I set TG 79 and entry level 76-76.3, it started moving up to around 76.8 but I get chance to execute it 76.3 (Less 2K), after 2PM market went down and dish went to 75.5 and finally closed at 76. In this situation my Loss ratio is less then what people would have entered above 76.5.
What I want to say in this case by entering to correct level reduce your losses as we all dont know where stock can go further and if it move up then this would be my profit.
(C) Stop Loss - SL comes as life savior in equal cases, sometimes all of sudden news or sector development create wild swing in stock like what happened y'day with RIL and Dabur when IAC announced some allegation. Dabur was 130 good SL was 128, it went to 124, this even small fall, specially in small to mid cap this fall could be circuit like what is happening in KFA since long, what has happned in DLF.
People who dont use SL end their trading experience with deep pain at the end of series or end of quarter or at the end of their trading life. In some cases stock gain again but its fully depend on quality of stock. Like what happened with ZEEL, around Oct. series expiry it was around 200 then it went to 196 SL was 189, we entered then it fell down due to Jindal case to 174 but today its again 196, some people didnt use SL but luckily get chance to exit at cost.
But what my thought in this case is - if I had exited the position at 189 I could have entered again around 179 and today I could have made great profit as stock had good support above 177 level.
This is great lesson - rather than to wait to come at to buying level, exit with SL, but it at lower level and make profit in same range.
(D) Patience - Well its almost related to SL, some stock maintain good support at a bit lower levels, like Dabur at 122.4, Cairn India at 323. So when we enter to such sctock and if it goes down then we should have patience stock will move up.
What I have noticed - people have great patience (I had too, but not now in this situation) when stock goes in reverse direction i.e. in loss because this time HOPES provide them moral support that scrip will come in profit one day, and they remain waiting for upside which not happened specially in small-mid caps, and even in blue chips if market sentiment not support.
But when time come to wait for good profit - they just book small profit, I have many experienced of this situation specially with BC members, even if all have remembers what has happened with us for Axis call & SBI call, small impatience took away our profit of 15K (and I had mentioned that time this is Diwali Bonus) but I too got under pressure by repeated questioning and impatience behavior and suggested to exit. If SL is shared (or if modified) then there is no need to ask repeated and no need to show impatience in between, this definitely reduces our profitability.
Remember - no once is master, yes my trades too go wrong but I believe in final result at the end of expiry, and it shouldn't be loss is my priority, no matter if I have missed the bus and made little profit, but I remain happy as I am gaining. As told many times I can too make those fours & sixes, but they always come up with risk of catch out, bold out, stumped. So if people feel comfortable we can do like that too, but it need is to follow every strategy, but sometime they avoid some calls, so on selective basis its not possible.
So this all which I wanted to share with you all.
MY TAKE -
Don't get nervous, ups & downs are part of stock market. As told many time just give me your 5 years, I want to assure you (though cant gurantee because its stock market, LOL) after 5 years you will be happy by whatever you will achieve. We will definitely achieve at least 10 millionaire. We all could have Millionaire/Billionaire if we stick to Trade System i.e. away from emotions, uses of TG & SL and above all trust for suggested trades.
Heart patient & low risk takers always keep themselves away from FNO as this is main cause of loss, FNO require great patience and also have tendency to bear loss if trade goes in wrong direction.
Cash is always suggested, slow and steady gain is always keep peace of mind.
Remove this thought from your mind - that one can be a millionaire in stock market in overnight. People who are making 50K to 1L or above in stock market, just ask them about their investment figure, definitely it would be around 5L+ while most of us are playing below 1L, then how you can look for that returns.
Look for long term and not for short term else you will end your trade experience with deep loss and lot of pain.
SHAPATH (OATH) - WE WILL FOLLOW TRADE SYSTEM & WILL KEEP EMOTIONS ASIDE IN STOCK MARKET. DEFINITELY ONE DAY WE WILL BE AT LEAST MILLIONAIRE. :)
I also hope some of you would be helping us in smart way to bring more facilities for you (told last week), as now time has come to tell you about good news on Diwali day.
Good Luck & Have Profitable Day.
================ Market outlook ==================
My reply to one of my friend, just sharing with you all
I am just watching following levels - 5685 - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630, for me trend is still buy on dips, yes we will gain with slow pace.
Few points to take care and included in view -
1. As told Obama is positive for EMs and specially for India. On broad basis if you see, nothing has changed globally, we are in same situation, instead good news are there like - Obama is sure for 2nd term, Greece got breather, next is Spain.
2. Home ground - Reforms already announced, now looking for physical viability i.e. it will be when foreign investment come to projects related to reforms, meaning more money is coming to India.
3. Repeatedly expressed - commodity are going out of bull phase and will go down, which will benefit most to India, oil prices coming down, which is quite positive for India.
So overall it was just a reaction of big corporates to Obama in US as he seems real politician and going to benefit common man. (had posted a good report before FDI announcement on MCB, i.e. why those reforms announced in hurry and what will be its impact in long run, had posted on PNR board)
So if above all reason go wrong then I dont find any reason for sustainability and as we know its all liquidity driven rally, and Nifty is here more due to small-mid caps and not due to large caps, so first if 5580 breakdown, there're I think 4 Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 by filling the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash.
Bull market will be in deep pain as then here onward (if breakdown that levels) we dont have any good calender to move further, growth will be slow down (i.e. new high funda will be washed out) as in a year's time we have election, and now dont have any new announcement which can boost the market, as we dont react to global market that much in both situation UP & Down.
Above all just a word of caution - once Nifty makes new high, we should be careful with FII, as first they fueled our mkt with cash and then with a silly reason they go away with cash at least once in a year, so just keep this also in mind. I dont see it too early may be around March/April +/- 2 months or just right now.
Regarding your 300 points - I was talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.
