Morning Bells (7 Sept 12) -
Good Morning Friends,

Finally the fear has gone, Mario Draghi kept his words “we will do whatever will be needed to save EU” in his previous statement. The European Central Bank agreed a new bond-buying programme on Thursday to lower struggling euro zone countries' borrowing costs which would serve as a "fully effective backstop", ECB President Mario Draghi said in his statement on Thursday.

Mainly addressed issues by Dragi are –

1.      EU Central Bank kept Interest rate unchanged to 0.75 (lowest level )

2.      He’s told - a very gradual economic recovery

3.      Revised down its forecast for GDP of this year between 0.6% and 0.2%.

4.      Agreed on new Bond Buying program to lower the EU countries borrowing cost.

Dragi kept his statement around facts & reality and that was the reason as Dragi started his conference and announced No interest rate cut mkt started sliding but when he announced bond buying program and accepted that we will recover gradually mkt found it realistic and then not only recovered but healthy gains.

On home ground - Petrol price hike is imminent and could be announced in 2-3 days.

Finance Ministry is also taking note to boost the economy, today its announced in Rajya Sabha that as part of its action plan to revive the economy, it is going to fast-track investment in large projects in sectors such as coal, mining, power and roads.

Well I have nothing much to say, as right its time to cheers.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Approx 10 lac shares added to 4900 put y’day, I guess it was with the hope of disappointment from ECB, now this will favour bulls in coming sessions if mkt trend remain up. There was mixed reaction on EU bond program in previous 2 attempts, So now it would be interesting to see how Indian mkt reacts on ECB outcome. Next 2-3 session will finalize the mkt direction.

Still sell on rise is suggested till 5335 is not broken out. Second half would watched carefully, as it will have EU response and need to see whether people go for profit booking or to remain invested.

NIFTY –

Y’day Nifty attempted to break its resistance 5260-65 range. So now support comes to 5190 while resistance is 5285 & 5335. If Nifty breaks 5285 then it will favour to bulls in short term.

My view will remain same – breakout of 5290 or 5335 on closing basis will give clear indication for mkt direction.

I am expecting a gap-up opening with 30+ points.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Banks – Since past few days I am saying banks are on my RADAR, now this good time for banks and I see good upmove. My pick was in Banking sector is – SBI (for short term TG 1900) and Bank of India (short term TG 375)

TM- Surprised & tricky, it hit the SL of most of traders on both side i.e. longs & shorts. Was saying about 239 breakout since couple of days, seems today can be that day. Watch for 239 if yes then see 246 shortly. Keep SL 231 once it crosses 236.

Keep eye on – IRB, GMR, IDFC, Kalyani Steels (Keep eye mean watch its movement for first hour and then make position accordingly on intraday basis for small gains) I guess these stock will be on move in second half of Sept.

OPEN CALLS –

Apollo Tyre – (bought @94 and @92) hold stock for updated TG 98+ with SL 86.

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) its below its good support 129, will wait for mkt and then will think to average our buying levels.

FDC (Bought at 88) hold for TG 94+, SL 78

Bank of India (bought 358) TG 375+ SL 352

Jain Irrigation – Y’day we made exit at 61.35 as stock was not performing as per expectations.

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at MudraGuru.blogspot.in (easy approach, evey time you will find it on single click) & at G+ as “Mudra Guru”. One can also find live calls during market hours here.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Cheers! Enjoy the ride but with slightly cautious approach.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

Morning Bells (6 Sept 12) - Good Morning Friends.

Well, D-Street opted wait and watch y’day and slightly cautious approach ahead of ECB meet (ECB meet today after mkt hours). I was also warning since past 2 days to lighten up your portfolio if you are in need of liquidity.

The Oil Ministry has already conveyed that it has no money left for fuel subsidy, so according to media reports the petrol prices could be revised by Rs. 4 a litre, diesel by Rs. 5 and LPG by Rs. 50 a cylinder. So it would be good news for some indices and bad for fuel sensitive indices.

Nothing much to say as globally investors have opted for wait & watch policy. I would also prefer it.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Market seem directionless, if we have look on FNO data Nifty showing broad range i.e. 4800-5000-5200-5400-5600, Fresh short have seen below 5000 mark which is not good sign for market, if something goes wrong on global platform (specially with EU) then we can head for 5000 or even below.

So sell on rise is suggested.

NIFTY –

As suggested during market hours that First Nifty will visit 5240 mark and then can make attempt to 5220, mkt reacted same as was expected, it back to some extend from 5240 and then broken it and visited 5220.

As told, 5200-5220 is the range where bears can think to book profit, so it would be interesting to see what’s going today, whether bears are going to book profit and will try to push Nifty below 5200 mark. Now 5180 & 5160 will act as support for current Nifty range while Nifty will face resistance at 5235-5265-5300.

My view will remain same – breakout of 5290 or 5335 on closing basis will give clear indication for mkt direction. As told y’day as per current data Nifty seems in the range of 5150 – 5335.

Nifty was down by 46 pts and OI increased is showing people has started building fresh shorts.

Since ECB meet will take place after mkt hours mkt will remain volatile.

Openings seem in hand of Bears and mkt will remain volatile. It could be a good day for swing traders. Since US & EU ended mixed mkt may try to recover in late trade if EU supports.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Banks – Instead of good move bank stock fell down y’day as country’s largest bank SBI announced a cut of up to 1% in interest rate for fixed deposits across maturities, a development which may prompt other banks to follow suit. "The new rates would be effective from September 7," country's largest bank cleared in a statement. The negative effect would be short lived.

Banks will remain on RADAR as banks are expecting 100 basis points CRR cut on 17 Sept RBI policy meet. Banks are also expecting that due to festive season demand for home & car loans to pick up in the next 2 months.

My pick was in Banking sector is – SBI (for short term TG 1900) and Bank of India (bought 358 for TG 375+ SL 352)

TM- Watch TM for breakout of 239, above 239 there’re high chances to touch 246-251. SL 231

Keep eye on – IRB, GMR, IDFC, Kalyani Steels (Keep eye mean watch its movement for first hour and then make position accordingly on Intraday basis for small gains)

OPEN CALLS –

(Lighten your positions before Friday if you are in need of liquidity)

I am experiencing a bit difficulty to watch movement of more stocks simultaneously so I am going to opt slightly reserve policy in making calls.

Jain Irrigation – Some of you have taken position @63, and if not squared off then just keep SL 58, as I expect it to go around 66+ level and then it may back to below 60 but if market loses steam then it can go down further.

Apollo Tyre – Nothing to worry about it, few we made @94, and few made @92 y’day, I am bullish on this stock and it has power to touch 100 level if market supports, so just keep SL 86 and TG 97+

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) its below its good support 129, will wait for mkt and then will think to average our buying levels.

FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Showing good strength since last couple of days and hope it will achieve TG whenever mkt will rebound. Originally it was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at MudraGuru.blogspot.in & at G+ as “Mudra Guru”

Today’s MG Mantra –

Wait till ECB, don’t make fresh positions. Cash is the only way to be on sit in a Casino else you won’t have any option to back home, so don’t fall under temptation. WAIT IS FAR BETTER THAN TO LOSE.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision

Morning Bell (5 Sept 12) - Good Morning Friends,

Could be a good news for market lovers but I am not happy at all with in what direction current political situation is going on. Yes, why I am here, just to benefit poor and innocent traders but Govt. move on reservation, hike in fuel prices etc. all are not in favour for future of this country. Please don’t think wrong but my said points (Govt’s worst politics) won’t solve the main issue of this country which is Fundamental structure need (A begger was reading news paper headline on 15^th Aug 2012, headline was “we are going to celebrate 65^th independence day today” his immediate reaction was “kamal he 65 saal gujar gaye, pata hi nahi chala”), I often joking saying – bhagwan bharose hi chal raha he ye desh, jis din bhram tootega to zameen bhi nasib nahi hogi.

Well, if some of you would have remembered my wording about parliament deadlock and reform progress – I had said that time that Govt. is paralyzed till Monsoon session only not after that come true y’day. Finally Govt. got success to pass 3 bills and now indicated heavy fuel hike which won’t be easy to acceptable widely, specially middle class would be affected most, Mamta Banerjee again proved himself true as she had told that Govt. is just reducing 1 or 2 Rs. for Presidential election and will hike more after this election.

Well that was the big reason why market recovered in late hours (RIL recovery too) instead of week global cue and defeated bears force. But it doesn’t mean bulls are out of danger. Now we need more cautious approach as told many times this time big crocos will try to find new trick. One more thing I would like to highlight here, why I am sharing all this to you??? Just because new members and innocent trader need to understand market, how risky it is, how big crocos play tricky all the time, that’s it.

Once again RIL come as saviour for market in late hours, RIL recovered smartly. Remember, RIL has capacity to give direction, a day before some of you thinking RIL will go down further (as per HNS) but my sense was that it will recover around 20 pts which also proved me right today. Upmove was also supported by Realty, Oil&Gas, Power, Consumer Durables and Metals.

CBI move has also gave strength as it as has message that Govt. look forward to clear deadlock in parliament for rest of days and in hurry to pass some important reforms. CBI has filed an FIR against five companies which are - AMR Iron and Steel, JAS Infra Capital, JLD Yavatmal Energy, Navbharat Power and Vini Iron & Steel.

Moody’s Service downgraded the outlook on the Europe (Union) to negative and warned that the region could lose its “AAA” debt rating and most European stock indices fell today after Moody’s announcement.

So, now once again all eyes will be on ECB meet on Thursday (think why Mr. Dragi of EU avoide Jackson Hole meets). It seems ECB could cut rates, investors also eying for detail on a new bond-buying plan to ease the funding pressures on Spain and Italy. So now investors are on a 'wait-and-watch' mode ahead of crucial policy meet.

Well, here I would like to thank you all for your support, love and best wishes, finally I started my own blog (was happy here and can say it’s an early step) after repeated requests put me under pressure for doing so. Initial response seems good, more than 150+ visitors everyday (even most of my friends and followers are not aware about it at the moment) make me smile that I made right step and also very happy if its helping people to make profitable trade. One can visit my blog MudraGuru-blogspot-in or can find me at G+ with word “Mudra Guru”, space is required.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Oil ministry is preparing a Cabinet note on fuel price hike, an increase in petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene prices looks "imminent" after the Finance Ministry said it has no money to provide for fuel subsidy. The quantum of the hike will be left to the Cabinet. Official don't see the "coalgate" issue coming in way of Cabinet hiking prices. (Source CNBC TV)

Market still is in confused mode and as it saved 5250 mark smartly we can assume it a base for short term and that’s we have seen some short positions unwinding around 5260. Market seems in a tight range, say aprx 100 points (5220-5335). So better option is to sell on rise till 5335 is not broken and one can make intraday longs.

So sell on rise is suggested.

NIFTY –

Once again FII booked profit on their longs in Index and OI volume decreases which is giving sign of market weakness in coming days. So in short now one need to take positions according to support & resistance in Nifty. Nifty supports at 5240 - 5220 – 5200 and resistance 5288 – 5305 – 5335. Breakout of last range (5200 or 5335 on closing basis) of either side will confirm the direction either side.

Till Nifty remains in this range one need to make positions only on intraday basis. I also like to warn here especially to FNO traders as warned in the beginning of series that this series again seem very tricky, so few range bound sessions will reduced the premium and will be non-beneficial for hedge traders. So better to book profit Intraday to next sessions, Nothing wrong in selling on high levels and take same positions on lower levels.

As per current data Nifty seems in the range of 5150 – 5335. Fall below 5200 could exposes the index to further falls to 5100-5050 even there is high chances of huge gap down opening too. Nifty falls to 5050 mark then it would be good for market to make new high of 2012 in coming months.

Openings seem in hand of Bears as most of global market fell down after Moody’s announcement and weak global cues.

STOCK OUTLOOK

Deccan Chronicle Holdings – keep eye on it for Intraday to short term.

RelInfra – Y’day was not good for it as Metro pillar crashes in Mumbai. News can put RelInfra into trouble as its 3^rd incidence till date. Also, Anil Ambani has also declined the rumours of merger of RPower and RelInfra.

Banks – Banks seems good bet for next 2-3 sessions. SBI Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri’s statement boosted Bank Nifty, Mr. Chaudhuri expects 100 basis points cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut by the RBI on 17 Sept policy meet. He also expects demand for home loans to pick up in the next 2 months.

My pick was in Banking sector is – SBI (bought @1830 for TG 1890+ SL 1810, updated SL 1840) and Bank of India (bought 358 for TG 375+ SL 352)

TM- Watch TM for breakout of 239, above 239 there’re high chances to touch 246-251. SL 231

Keep eye on – IRB, GMR, IDFC, Kalyani Steels (Keep eye mean watch its movement for first hour and then make position accordingly on Intraday basis for small gains)

OPEN CALLS –

(Lighten your positions before Friday if you are in need of liquidity)

Jain Irrigation – We have booked profit y’day, bought 62.5 & sold 64.3. Again watch, if it remain stable then one can make position below y’day close for 2-3+ gains.

Apollo Tyre – For Longs (bought @94) can book profit above 97, SL 86

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) and FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Today’s MG Mantra – Lighten up your portfolio before Friday. Make positions on Intraday basis.

Oops! Took so much time… well, Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

Morning Bells (4 Sept. 12) - 
Good Morning Friends,

So finally that FEAR (parliament deadlock) has taken place y’day.

As pointed out in yesterday’s morning bells about parliament deadlock fear which had come true Y’day. So start of fresh series is seems completely lacklustre despite of positive global cues. As discussed all positive cues Y’day (GAAR, GDP,, Global cues), were in the favour of market and that’s market opened on positive note and extended gains, but in second half it gave up all the gains when congress announced to dismissed all the demands by BJP. Actually it was a super class googly which has only two results – either catch out or bold out for market.

Fed Chairman Bernanke left the door open in Jackson Hole for further stimulus if needed. Now all eyes on ECB meet on Thursday. It seems ECB could cut rates, investors also eying for detail on a new bond-buying plan to ease the funding pressures on Spain and Italy. (Report MoneyControl.com)

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Due to high end political drama there is hardly any visibility in on front of policy measures or any other announcement. In between Govt. succeeded to pass 3 bills between logjams in parliament and one of them is National Highway amendment and that’s IRB was one who closed up 2.48%.

Now all hopes with ECB which can give direction to lighten portfolio so next some stimulus from ECB because RBI meet on 17 would be a neutral event and seems there will be nothing much to cheer.

So sell on rise is suggested.

NIFTY -

Told many times and now would suggest keeping close eye on this levels and doing your trade accordingly. Watch Nifty range – on upside 5265 – 5300 – 5330 and on down side 5240-5220-5200. Till Nifty remains in this range one need to make positions only on intraday basis. I also like to warn here especially to FNO traders as warned in the beginning of series that this series again seem very tricky, so few range bound sessions will reduced the premium and will be non-beneficial for hedge traders. So better to book profit Intraday to 2-3 sessions, Nothing wrong in selling on high levels and take same positions on lower levels.

OI decreases and Nifty going down indicating FII have started profit booking in longs and taking short positions. As told in weekend as Nifty upside is shifting to 5400 from 5500 is seems true.

As per current data Nifty seems in the range of 5150 – 5330. Fall below 5200 could exposes the index to further falls to 5100-5050 even there is high chances of huge gap down opening too. Nifty falls to 5050 mark then it would be good for market to make new high of 2012 in coming months.

Openings seem in hand of Bears.

STOCK OUTLOOK

Keep eye on – HDFC Bank & SBI (On Intraday basis), Infra stocks related to National Highway like IRB, GMR.

TM- Day was not good for Tata group stocks, almost all Tata group stocks were under pressure. Seems tough time ahead for TM and Tata Steel. Today’s TM range is 226-231-237.

CAG Effect – Cos got breather as UPA II rejected the BJP demand but one should keep eye on 25 cos of which Govt. is set to take legal action just to prove their action on CAG.

Kalyani Steels will be in news after the Supreme Court lifted the ban on category A mines in Karnataka, stock rose 9%.

OPEN CALLS –

(Lighten your positions before Friday if you are in need of liquidity)

Apollo Tyre – For Longs (bought @94) can book profit above 97, SL 86

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) and FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Today’s MG Mantra – Lighten up your portfolio before Friday. Don’t forget to book part profit to safe your investment. Do not fall in temptation Medium to long term right now; one should wait for right Entry levels.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.