Weekend Special

I hope this weekend is good for all of you as you all would have earned good profit. I am feeling happy as you are gaining.

I specially thanks to all of you who have given me this wonderful opportunity to interact with you all and for respect and love too.

So Mulayam indicated to support and market drive from 90 to 150 pts and I missed this rally due to limited resources and that's I always tell if some of you (who have TV facility) can share news would be great for all of us to gain more. 

1. So now big question is will upmove remain intact? 

2. Will Nifty move further? 

3. or after seeing market on new high of 14 months people will go for profit booking?

Please share your views as well as related news you found somewhere this will really help me and all board members too.

Have a great weekend. For me there is no weekend, I need to start work on Sunday else no M Bells will be there. See you on Monday.

-MG

Morning Bells (21 Sept 12)

Good Morning Friends,

Coins always make sound, but the currency notes are always silent. So when your value increases, keep yourself calm and silent. Think it for Stock Market.

So finally congress made it smartly. But you all were combing head for further, well nothing to worry at the moment, meaning next three months or so. In this instability SP may have a reason to sort of want early polls because of their recent win in UP but Mayawati doesn’t have any such reasons. And I have already cleared you after first M, second M can make match interesting but it wont affect any harm to Govt. soon, atleast till Nov. as told y’day, yes 3^rd M will be a match lose or win affect.

The numbers as they stack up, show that with support of Mayawati the government could stay in place for a further period of time that is point one. So now possibility come to only somewhere in 2013 as Govt. can still remain in power for next 6 months even after minority.

Well now seems Govt. is all set to embark on ambitious reforms agenda despite severe political opposition.  Despite facing the heat over the hike in diesel prices and reforms now it seems govt. has decided to go ahead with some more reforms, according to FM PC’s statement. So after losing the support of TMC over the tough economic measures has decided to fast-track the disinvestment process.

Sources revealed that Govt. is likely to go ahead with insurance reforms next week and is expected that the FDI cap on insurance will be raised from 26 per cent to 49 per cent. Meanwhile, all FDI reforms announced earlier by the government have come into effect from Thursday.

PM is likely to make a statement on the diesel price hike and the reforms by the Govt. on Friday. Govt. has already cleared FDI in multi-brand retail, single-brand retail, and aviation, broadcasting and power exchanges last Friday.

Take a look on some of key reforms which Cabinet has approved last Friday - The Cabinet has allowed 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail, and permitted FDI, up to 100 per cent, in single-brand retail trading, subject to specified conditions.

Another major decision had approved FDI in aviation, allowing up to 49 per cent investment. The decision means that foreign airlines will now be allowed to invest as much as 49 per cent in the Indian carriers. However, this won't be automatic as the companies will have to get clearance from the ministry and FIPB.

But now I dont see Govt. can have courage to move forward with any further reforms after losing an ally on first attempt.

Market to remain choppy and market will remain pick-and-choose market.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market was about to recover but first EU opened lower that stopped traders from risk trade ahead of Friday and secondly news about Mulayam Singh has came out that he’s finding third front possibility and left has supported him, market extended its loss. Market recovered 15 points after closing on pending orders. (One more tool to understand here, how fast system it was which executed orders within seconds)

I personally feels there is no threat to the Govt. at the moment and therefore sentiment is likely to be positive for the market.

NIFTY –

PCR rose to 1.17 and Vix 18.62. Now resistance has come to Resistance 5585 - 5600- 5621 – 5650 and Supports has come 5550 – 5520 - 5490. So close below 5550 will favour bears in next few sessions.

Trend remain buy on dips till 5450 is not broken, it will be signal of trend changer

Opening seems flat and could be range bound till EU, so act as per momentum as its Friday, though some profit booking and unwinding has already taken place y’day but still would suggest to go for cautious approach.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

FDI in Aviation –

Company looking for FDI need get clearance from the ministry and FIPB for it. Keep eye on KFA, Jet & Spice.

FDI in Retail -

Sentiment can boost after PM’s speak today.

Infra - Finance Minister P Chidambaram has proposed single window clearance under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for infrastructure projects. Infra sector will remain in news for next few days.

Coal Blocks –

Coal India valuation seems attractive.

Banks – I see banks will perform good in near future ahead of CRR cut, drop in interest rate and festive season. One can keep eyes on SBI & ICICI bank.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- Is very uncertain for me today. R 277 – 283 while S 266 – 261 – 256, if somehow TM falls to 256 will be good for further upswing else will remain in the range of 261-290.

Suzlon Energy - Company is into severe cash crunch, interest cost this company has not good, it paid around Rs 5 crore in the first quarter, operations have been pretty bad and there are no hopes of the operations being revived in the near future. - Rajesh Agarwal, Eastern Financiers, told CNBC TV18

OPEN CALLS –

Cox&Kings - TG 148, SL 121 (R 133 – 139 S 129 - 127)

Nifty 5700CE – bought at 10 TG – will announce SL – For risk takers,

Happy Moment – Happy to got msgs from friends that they are earning well through various cues from M Bells. Y’day people earned in SBI call & Tata Steel Call. Cheers! Keep it up.

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at MudraGuru.blogspot.in (every time to find it on single click rather than to scroll here) One can also find live calls during market hours here.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Just remember my opening quotation, mean is simple, if you have gained in market then need to have patience for next good position. Today’s gain could convert in to loss tomorrow.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

Morning Bells (20 Sept 12)

Good Morning Friends,

Man asked GOD – “Give me everything to enjoy the life”, GOD relied- “I have given you life to enjoy everything!”

Finally it took place, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee on Tuesday withdraw its part support from UPA, then on further blame game she is sticking to her decision to pull out from the UPA government and on Wednesday said a section of channels were spreading "misinformation" and "trying to create confusion". She has also post on facebook that "If I have something new to say, then I will let you know directly. I will reiterate that we have taken a decision, which is ‘of the people, for the people and by the people’ and also pro-people. We stand by it," So now it seems there’s no scope for coalition.

Well, but seems market is ready to discount Mamta’s exit. Though I don’t see any rally as investors will adopt slightly cautious approach ahead of political uncertainty. I had strong note on further political development (on MCB & Blog on Friday) when Mamta Banerjee had started threatening to pull off support. Just reminding you key points - M3+S Pawar is the strength of UPA2, to step down Govt. it need to go out at least any 3 of them as UPA has 323 Nos in his account. Secondly Monsoon session has just finished then to bring vote of confidence call for parliament session can be in Oct. end or in Nov. only, opposition can go to President but do you think Mr. President will accept the demand to call for parliament too soon. So Govt. has enough time to bargain and bring support and that’s I had told they have played game very carefully. Starting today Govt. has thrown many Ads on news channels of their achievement in various welfare programs.

Though personally I am not convenience with Govt.’s any move on reforms & welfare programs, I think for common man and not for corporate & politician for whom these programs are big source of **** u know it very well. I had expressed my view when Govt. hiked fuel prices and FDI that market may be cheer it but I hate Govt. just an ex. Of various thought - I don’t need wallmart, why? Becoz if I will be able to save from my expenditure then only will be able to visit wallmart else how can I afford to visit a mall for shopping. Not necessary to agree with me here, but it’s my very personal thought.

So market will remain subdued and cautious and will keep keen eye on further political development.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing much to say as its clear to most of you and I do not see any good move either side yet. Well on Tuesday Market ended with marginal losses for the first time in eight trading sessions retreating from 14 month high and seem to have taken a breather after participants preferred to book some profits at the 5650 levels.

So to my view market may remain subdued today and volatile tomorrow, fresh outlook seems from Monday. So keep eye on 5550 – 5530 on down side, this is the range where market will find good support and give strength to current momentum & rally. As told on Tuesday bull will give tough fight to save 5600 mark now they can try to close Nifty above this mark.

One more sense I am feeling – market will get strength by FII as they were the only ppl who were betting on market with hope of reforms and they wont leave the battle in between and will definitely provide strong support to sustain current momentum. So either before or later market will have uptrend.

NIFTY –

Now Nifty will find resistance at 5600 & 5621 while support comes to 5555 & 5530. And as told on Tuesday close below 5550 will favour bulls next trading session.

PCR rose to 1.08 and Vix 17.83. Watch Resistance 5585 - 5600- 5621 – 5650 and Supports has come 5550 – 5530 - 5490. So close below 5550 will favour bears in next few sessions.

Market is set for a gap down opening. Around 5565, its very close to support level 5550 & resistance 5585, its possible may be it will remain in this range for today.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

FDI in Aviation –

Already expressed my view on this, keep eye on KFA, Jet & Spice.

FDI in Retail -

Sector would remain in worry as already told one of the main reasons above and that’s retail stocks off their day’s high on Moody’s comment on FDI in Retain in India - "Therefore, the credit benefit of the announcement can only be recognized when a major multi-brand retailer actually receives all regulatory approvals to invest," said in a note on Monday. (source MoneyControl.com)

Coal Blocks –

IMG has y’day again recommended for de-allocation of 3 more blocks.

Banks – I had strongly recommended SBI when it was around 1820 mark 2 weeks back. Many of you were not convenience with my view 2200 mark that time as was a big TG but its almost achieved and upmove is still intact with a bit profit booking at such a high level in 2 weeks. Well, A day after the RBI mid quarter (July-September) monetary policy announcement, India’s largest lender SBI on Tuesday slashed its base rate, by 25 basis points to 9.75%.

One can also keep eye on ICICI bank.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- Reports are not in favour of TM, either diesel or about new M&HCV's. So seems under pressure. Now Res 280 – 283 while Sup – 268 – 265. My view was to find TM somewhere around 260 lvl so lets see what hapns.

OPEN CALLS –

Cox&Kings - TG 148, SL 121 (R 133 – 139 S 129 - 127)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market is expected for correction so trade with strict SL is suggested and don’t set big TGs.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.

Ganapati Bappa Morya

Today we have holiday on the auspicious occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi. Its Maharashtra's biggest festival. Among lot of Ganesh Pandals two are famous internationally.

1. Mumbai - Lal Bagh Ka Raja - It's believed they fullfill all your wish and that's he's popular in devotees as Mannat Ganesha. To have darashan of Lal Bagh Ka Raja one need to go through Q of 12+ hours.

2. Pune - Dagadu Sheth Halwai Ganapati Temple - Is one the most famous name worldwide. On first day of Ganesh Chaturthi, 10,000+ women recite Ganesh Atharva. They make big decoration like fort and most of days nationalist celebrity perform here.

I pray lord Ganesha shower his blessing to all of you, you all get the money you have in mind in Rs., Lord convert it in $s. 

============================================================
Well Come to Market, now match at interesting point, its like match ball decision, I have three options -

(a) As game of Congress seems changed, Mulayam have taken U turn, so if Govt. goes to fall
Result - Market will fall, we all know, but how much - may be below 5000 mark. A huge gap down.

(b) If congress rollback diesel & LPG decision, M2 can support, Mamta may not, Govt. will safe
Result -Market will fall below 5400 as it will give message to FII that govt. is not reliable. And even FDI get stuck. Market will open lower and will remain under pressure.

(c) If somehow they get success to magic no.
Result -Market will cheers and can cross even 5800 mark - A huge gap up

So keep eye on further development, and will be thankful if someone can also share the same here on board as I will remain busy today and will not get time to track the news.

Even all friends can go for debate or views, as already told many times, its not my personal blog, all is our property.

Had already suggested to dont go long till Friday, so I hope you have booked profit and have not created fresh longs today.

Thanks.

Morning Bells (18 Sept. 12)

Good Morning Friends,

“Do not expect the circumstances to be always in your favor, because this world has not been created for you alone!”

Well, the day will remain on the name of M3 – Mamta, Mulayam & Maya. TMC holding meeting today and will take decision on support to UPA Govt. So Market seems highly volatile and under pressure.

Amid uncertainty of political development on various front FM told that decisions taken will not be rollback, PM too clarified his stand on this conveying strong message to Mamta to consider all this (we have options) before making any hard decision.

The RBI did not cut interest rates and it did not surprise the market as this was already priced in. Indices closed firm but off day's highs.

Govt. raises diesel prices to reduce widening fiscal deficit and to boost investor sentiment, but it seems a bit difficult when we try to have a look on it. On Monday FM P Chidambaram also discussed on GDP and fiscal deficit, he told India would be lucky if it manages to hold country's fiscal deficit at 5.1% of the GDP. However, several economists do not agree with the Govt.’s fiscal deficit projection of 5.1% and predict that it could reach 6% or more.

There is a also a fear that some roll back may happen and most probably Govt. can increase the number of LPG cylinder supply to ten from six in a year.

On FDI part, decision will not boost investment sentiment aggressively as there’s some uncertainty. Investor will keep a slightly modest approach as without a change in the mindset about the State’s role in the economy it seems difficult. In other hand key cities like Banglore, Chennai, Ahmedabad and Kolkatta are out of the ambit of FDI in retail because of opposition from the respective state governments. FDI in aviation too may be a non-starter because of the structural problems facing the industry, and lack of majority stake for the foreign players.

So overall, now its watch for inning for balling team i.e. all who were trying to attack the Govt.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Well as told y’day that we will see consolidation whenever Nifty will reach in the range of 5650-5685 same has happened but finally bull got success to close above 5600.

As discussed, market cheered the FDI decision but on ground part it has miles to go and that’s after a spike in FDI affected stock we have noticed some cool off in those equities.

Market is expected for correction or for consolidation, it may take place today. So its not right time to initiate fresh longs except few select stocks.

NIFTY –

FII have initiated fresh longs in Nifty & Bank Nifty, bought Index Futures aprx 1122crores. So bulls will try to defend 5600 which seems difficult for them as we also have holiday on Wednesday to welcome Bappa, so profit booking can take place, also global market ended lowered that will too discourage the boosted sentiment.

PCR has reduced to 1.03 and Vix 17.78. Now Resistance has come up to 5620 - 5650 – 5685 and Supports has come to 5585 & 5550. So close below 5550 will favour bears in next few sessions.

Opening seems subdued and market may go volatile & under pressure after opening.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

FDI in Aviation –

FDI in Aviation has different meaning for individuals, have look –

Kingfisher Airlines- rose 20%, sharpest among all its listed peers on hopes that the company will be able to rope in a strategic investor, some media report says they are already in talks with a foreign carrier who will pick up stakes in the carrier.

Jet- has aprx 13,000 crore debt on its books, and they needs Rs 1500- 2000 crore for working capital and is in talks with banks to raise funds.

Spice – Stock rose 15%. As I had already told you earlier, to my view it will be one of the top pick if FDI get through. My view was on the basis - company could be best pick for foreign investor - comfortable debt levels, improving market share, operational efficiencies. Also Mr. SL Narayanan, Group CFO and promoter of the company has told to CNBC TV18 that the airline may close an FDI deal by the year end thereby lifting investor confidence.

FDI in Retail -

Sector would remain in worry as already told one of the main reasons above and that’s retail stocks off their day’s high. Moody has commented on FDI in Retain in India - "Therefore, the credit benefit of the announcement can only be recognized when a major multi-brand retailer actually receives all regulatory approvals to invest," said in a note on Monday. (source MoneyControl.com)

Coal Blocks –

Reports stated that IMG has recommended forfeiting of the bank guarantees of the two companies. JSW Steel is likely to lose its mining licence for a coal block held jointly with Himachal EMTA, according to reports, there are also reports that IMG, however, did not recommend any action against the coal blocks owned by Tata Steel and Reliance Power. Source MoneyControl.com.

Banks – SBI will remain volatile and will rebound after consolidation.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- Global sales increased 13% in August to 97,225 units and as tradition it may remain under pressure, Resistance 286-295-300 while it will get support 266-257. Stock may also hover for long between 271-280

OPEN CALLS –

Cox&Kings - Bought 138 & 127, TG 148, SL 121

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market is expected for correction so trade with strict SL is suggested and don’t set big TGs.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.