Morning Bells (28 Mar 13)

Hello Friends,

Today is expiry and unfortunately didnt get time to take a look on market news after tiredness of whole, day. Still viewing new and if find time then will post else today we will remain dry.

FaceBook - Be on board, will try to get some calls for the day.

Remember I dont enter market before 10.30, so you can get in touch at blog after 10.30.

SOME KEY POINTS TO TAKE CARE TODAY -

1. 
Its expiry day, market went under oversold zone, so a sharp bounce is expected (if not rolled out), also as told you many times, last 3 days will be buying zone for DII ahead of financial book closer, so if you look at calender today its 28, and 29 Friday, 30&31 is holiday, so these are only 2 days left to buy.

FII is not in buying zone, they are just waiting to finish buying by DII, and then will be interesting to see who starts selling first.

2.
In a major achievement for India in its campaign for reforming the international financial architecture, BRICS nations on Wednesday decided to establish a new development bank to finance infrastructure and to create a USD 100 billion Contingency Reserve Arrangement to tackle any financial crisis in the emerging economies.

The decision was taken at the BRICS Summit here which also launched a Business Council to encourage investment and trade in member countries and to expand business cooperation. Leaders of the inter-continental grouping including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, met here this morning for an extended session and accepted the report of their finance ministers saying "we are satisfied that the establishment of a New Development Bank is feasible and viable". 

3.
Private sector lender Yes Bank has constituted a 100% subsidiary company Yes Securities India Ltd to kick start its brokerage business by August-September, 2013. According to Jaideep Iyer, senior president financial management, the lender is also considering the acquisition of a small broking firm. The exercise is seen as a part of building customers base before it finally launches home loan products. 


===== FaceBook Request ====
Friends - as told, please ensure to also send a message "I am blog reader/follower" along with your friendship request (to ensure you are from market fraternity), as I have restricted entries to FB only for blog members/readers and dont want any unknown person to take advantage from it.

Also its difficult to check blog list for every individual during market hours.

Morning Bells (26 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

God has planned happiness for each of us on at the right time, the only things is that  he does not share his calendar with us. Good Morning.

Aha, so its not holding, as informed 5700 is physiological level. As discussed short covering will lead Nifty to higher and 1-2 days will be good for bulls but all of sudden rumours spread in market that SP can also withdraw support from UPA.

If you all remember, I had informed you when DMK withdrawn their support that – Govt. is not under crisis right now but the major change has come that – now govt. wont be able to take bold steps to reduce fiscal deficit or in other words wont be able to give advantages to corporate.

So on rumours participant choose to put some profit off the table. I had also informed when TMC had withdrawn their support that SP can play big game as Mr. Mulayam Sigh is in touch of many leaders and he can give an attempt for a PM post like what Mr. Chandrashekhar did, i.e. for very short term, either for 26 Jan or for 15 Aug., but SP will take its step only when he will be sure, but its unfortunate that now only 1 year to go for gen. election and if congress get any clue about it, it will go for early election rather than to give a chance to SP.

So this was the only case market went down from a good gap up. World markets had just got breather by heaving a sigh of relief following the developments in Cyprus (country sealed a US$13bn deal with troika which includes the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund averting financial crisis.) but the Indian equity market ended in the red reversing all its early gains on Monday after media reports stated that Samajwadi Party may pull the plug on the UPA government.

Gainers –

RIL, TCS, Tata Power, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy’s Lab, HDFC, NTPC, ONGC and Sun Pharma were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

Infosys, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite Inds, Gail India, Coal India, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, SBI, M&M and ITC were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral Gainer/Losers –

Oil & Gas stocks were among the top gainers on Monday after Indian Oil Corp, raised diesel prices by about 1% from Saturday in line with the flexibility given by the government. The S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up 0.5%

The Realty stocks were in limelight after Minister of Housing and Urban poverty Alleviation, Ajay Maken declared that the real estate regulator bill was expected to be bought up for consideration of the cabinet soon. He also said that the government wants to set up a tough regulator for the realty sector with provisions for jail term for developers for putting up misleading advertisements.

The S&P BSE Realty index gained 0.7%. DLF up 5%, HDIL edged higher by 0.3%, Godrej Properties gained by 1.54% and Unitech Ltd was up 1.8%.

Domestic Front –

Single window for clearance for Real Estate Projects -

Ajay Maken, Union Minister for Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation informed that the Government had sanctioned projects worth Rs 41723 crores for building of 15,69,000 houses/dwelling units for Economically Weaker/Lower Income Group sections under the Ministry’s flagship JnNURM (BSUP and ISHDP) programmes.

Maken said this while addressing the National Editors’ Conference here today, of these approximately 10 lakh houses were either ready or under various stages of completion. Similarly under the Pilot phase of Rajiv Awas Yojana (RAY), in the 195 identified beneficiaries cities Rs 100 crores had been released for undertaking the finalisation of slum free city plans. 40 Projects worth Rs 1769 crores for construction of 32517 dwelling units in 33 cities had been sanctioned till the 10th March 2013, Shri Maken informed.

Global Front –

Cyrpus Cause -

Cyprus sealed a US$13bn deal with troika which includes the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund averting financial crisis.

The messy deal to bail out Cyprus has averted the latest threat to the break-up of the euro but at the cost of raising new questions about the single currency's long-term viability.

Savers in other euro zone banks appear so far to be taking the freezing of balances over 100,000 euros in Cyprus's two biggest lenders in their stride. Perhaps they judge that events in a tiny, far-away island with outsize banks and a reliance on deposits from Russian oligarchs hold little relevance for them.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

In the current series 5600 Put indicates a strong support for the market. Renewed buying has started coupled with short covering. Heavy shorts are seen in the market. One can take the case of PSU banking, cement, automobile and more specially the two wheelers.

Market remain supportive this week and will be in favour of bulls only exception about Cyprus issue which is slated for Thursday. Technically its showing 5550 before any upmove further.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 5.28% and ended at 16.36 against previous close of 15.54.

FNO PCR is 0.96 against previous close 0.88.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 16 paisa and was trading at 54.18 against its previous close of 54.34.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1552.28 down 4.61 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5787 – 5752 – 5693 and Support – 5599 – 5564 – 5505 (Pivot 5658)

Weekly Resistance – 5787 – 5752 – 5693 and Supports – 5599 – 5564 - 5505

Opening – Seems a bit negative and under pressure, a sudden spike is not rules out, but be cautious market may remain choppy.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

GAIL –

Gail India declined 2% after Tamil Nadu (TN) stopped the pipeline project in 7 districts of Tamil Nadu. GAIL planned to connect Kerala to Karnataka via TN. TN government will not allow Gail to set up pies on agricultural land.

Adani Power –

Adani Power marginally gained by 0.8% after the company declared that the Board of Directors on Saturday approved preferential issue of equity shares to the promoter and promoter group of the company up to 47,86,50,000 shares through Resolution by circulation.

Dr. Reddy –

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories was up marginally by 0.3% after the company announced that it settled a pending case against Nordion Inc.  A Canada-based company paid $22.5mn to Dr. Reddy’s to settle a case filed by the former in a United States Court, New Jersey. The settlement was concluded on 20 March 2013, with the receipt of the settlement funds by Dr. Reddy's.

Suzlon Energy –

The wind turbine maker Suzlon has launched a five-year USD 650 million dollar bond to repay dollar loans taken from Indian banks. Sources tell CNBC-TV18 that Suzlon’s dollar bond has been oversubscribed, pricing for which will be finalized later in the evening.

These bonds have been guaranteed by SBI with letter of credit from 11 Banks including Yes Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank, BOI, BOB etc.

Currently the company has to repay dollar loans in two tranches . It has to repay loans worth USD 300 million to banks due for maturity on March 31. The loan was taken to refinance FCCBs in July 2012.

TCS –

Tata Consultancy Services ( TCS ) and global outsourcing services firm Capgemini have been awarded contracts worth USD 43 million (about Rs 233 crore) each from Norway Post to operate and manage its applications.

The 6-year deal encompasses delivery of a wide range of services across Norway Post's core portfolio of 55 applications. It delivers over 36 million packages and 2.2 billion letters annually.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +13,450

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar= 41,650

Today’s MG Mantra –

After repeated request finally I am giving a try to Face Book, but I have restricted that a bit, people who want’ to join me on FB need to request here.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Morning Bells (25 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

In life don’t trust people who change their feelings with time, instead trust those people whose feelings  remain the same even when the time change.

So once again we are in expiry week. Week which is again the truncated week of three days may see some volatility but remain in the favour of bulls expect some pressure ahead of Cyprus issue around Thursday.

Domestic Front –

Single Regulator for Financial Sector -

The turf war between regulators could be a thing of the past if the proposals of the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) headed by Justice (retd) BN Srikrishna. The panel has proposed a single regulator or unified regulator for all financial sector laws which include markets, insurance, commodities and pension. 

In other words SEBI, the Forward Markets Commission, the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority and PFRDA could be converted into a new unified regulatory agency.

Banks can breathe easy as banking has been kept out of the purview. According to reports, Srikrishna said ‘the report does recommend that in the long run even the RBI should be brought within the ambit of the unified regulatory agency.’

The report was handed over to Finance Minister P Chidambaram today and the FM is expected to discuss the report with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday.

Cash Settlement in F&O –

Effective April 26, 2013, trading on all existing single stock futures & options contracts (including all monthly and weekly expiry contracts) expiring on or after April 26, 2013 will be settled in cash (settlement by payment of difference). 

All single stock futures & options contracts i.e monthly and weekly expiry contacts expiring till April 25, 2013 will continue to have delivery based settlement. There will be no change in other contract specifications like contract size, strike intervals, number of strikes for options, expiry day, and calculation of settlement price. 

The BSE has decided to change settlement mechanism from delivery based settlement to cash settlement in Stock Futures & Options Contracts in BSE’s Equity Derivatives segment. 

Effective April 26, 2013, trading on all existing single stock futures & options contracts (including all monthly and weekly expiry contracts) expiring on or after April 26, 2013 will be settled in cash (settlement by payment of difference). 

All single stock futures & options contracts i.e monthly and weekly expiry contacts expiring till April 25, 2013 will continue to have delivery based settlement. There will be no change in other contract specifications like contract size, strike intervals, number of strikes for options, expiry day, and calculation of settlement price. 

Current Account Deficit –

In an effort to bridge the widening current account deficit, finance minister P Chidambaram has said that limits for FII investment in corporate bonds and long-term infrastructure bonds will be merged effective from April 1.

The key decisions announced by the FM are that the limits on FII fungibility for securities is going to be USD 25 billion and the limits for long-term securities as well as old securities will be merged. On corporate and long-term infrastructure bonds, the three different limits that are currently in use will now be merged into one limit of USD 51 billion.

Global Front –

Cyrpus Cause -

Cyprus is preparing for total financial collapse as the European Central Bank turns its back on the island after its parliament rejected a scheme to make Cypriot citizens pay a levy on savings deposits in return for a share in potential gas futures to fund a bailout.

On Wednesday, the Greek-Cypriot government voted against asking its citizens to bank on the future of gas exports by paying a 3-15% levy on bank deposits in return for a stake in potential gas sales. The scheme would have partly funded a $13 billion EU bailout.

It would have been a major gamble that had Cypriots asking how much gas the island actually has and whether it will prove commercially viable any time soon.

In the end, not even the parliament was willing to take the gamble, forcing Cypriots to look elsewhere for cash, hitting up Russia in desperate talks this week, but to no avail.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

In the current series 5600 Put indicates a strong support for the market. Renewed buying has started coupled with short covering. Heavy shorts are seen in the market. One can take the case of PSU banking, cement, automobile and more specially the two wheelers.

Market remain supportive this week and will be in favour of bulls only exception about Cyprus issue which is slated for Thursday. Technically its showing 5550 before any upmove further.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and ended at 16.51 against previous close of 16.66.

FNO PCR is 0.88 against previous close 0.92.

Indian Rupee – Rupee remained flat and was trading at 54.33 against its previous close of 54.28.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1554.65 up 8.85 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5744 – 5717 – 5684 and Support – 5624 – 5600 – 5565 (Pivot 5658)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6144 – 6057 – 5965 and Supports – 5785 – 5698 - 5606

Opening – Seems small positive but remain choppy.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Book profit in your 50% holdings and keep balance with SL 119, on 18 Mar 13)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +13,450

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar= 41,650

Today’s MG Mantra –

After repeated request finally I am giving a try to Face Book, but I have restricted that a bit, people who want’ to join me on FB need to request here.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.