Welcome to the World of MudraGuru: 2012-11-11

Saturday, 17 November 2012

Weekend Special (17-18 Nov 12)

Hi,

Instead of education on Trading Practice, this weekend we going to do something different and I hope this will us in a different way and will be helpful to make our trading strategy for next week.

========== MARKET & STOCK OUTLOOK DISCUSSION ==========

This weekend we are going to discuss market sentiment & stocks. I am putting my view and also requesting you all - also share your views on market as well as on stock, also share any stock info if you are aware.
Please avoid - Just a thought, mean you can put text but I also need why do you think so, so we all will be able to participate in that discussion.

==================== BIG EXPERTS ====================

Well, till last week all big experts were shouting for sky rocket rally - washed out.

All were talking about new high - most of you had read only headlines while they were talking about next year.

Now same experts are crying that global weakness & and parliament woes push market down.

So what to believe in big experts? First they are also in the same situation like we, they can't handle market alone and lastly before reaction of market they come to know much in advance and they are able to save their money or you can say they still earn through all.

So big lesson, never take their view for very short term because they are not trader.

==================== WORLD LEADER'S WORRY ====================

Friday's sharp fall was mainly ahead of US fiscal cliff worry. Keep eye on further development and keep informing us all here.

Well US stocks open lowered and then recovered from early declines after leaders of the Senate and House emerged from a meeting at the White House and indicated they would be flexible in efforts to settle fiscal policy differences.

Hope that US politicians would find common ground to steer clear of the "fiscal cliff" boosted stocks on Friday, though the gains were not enough to offset the week's losses.

==================== TATA TEA ====================

Starbucks joint venture, which sources coffee from Tata Coffee, started rolling out stores last month. The initial response has been very good and that also means better offtake for Tata Coffee.

Tata Coffee has also recently set up a new roastery in Coorg, Karnataka, from where it will initially supply to the Tata Starbucks outlets in India and then aim for gradually supplying Starbucks' outlets around the world.

Analysts say the association with Starbucks too got investors excited as the supply deal will definitely boost its volumes and earnings.

NOW COME AND JOIN HANDS.... SHARE WHAT'S IN YOUR MIND...

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.

Friday, 16 November 2012

Morning Bells (16 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Success is like a beautiful lover, it can leave us at any time but failure is like a mother, it teaches us important message of life at every failure attempt.

So market just reacted as per expected lines, had informed opening could be 30+ dip and then 20+/- range i.e. then Nifty will remain in this range and same has happened. We also hold our strong support 5630 on closing basis.

Today’s fall was mainly due to sharp overnight losses in the US markets amid worries of the U.S. “fiscal cliff” of potential tax hikes and spending cuts. Whole global market witnessed weakness today.

Well, Petrol prices have been cut by 95 paisa a litre effective midnight exclusive of taxes.

Reliance Industries got nod from Upstream Oil regulator DGH to drill a well as part of the USD 1.529 billion plan to develop four satellite gas fields around KG-D6 block.

Software giant Microsoft Corp has announced major change its leadership, according to reports. Reports stated that Windows chief Steven Sinofsky has resigned after launching the new Windows 8 operating system.

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October analysts expectation were of 7.96 percent.

Industrial production unexpectedly shrank an annual 0.4 percent in September, compared with a forecast of a rise of 2.8 percent of experts.

India's annual consumer price inflation rose in October to 9.75 percent, government data showed.

Now market will look for winter session of parliament and is eying on RBI to cut in interest rate in Jan 13, there are high chances that RBI can cut interest rate in Jan. and to my personal view Dec. can be a disappointing months in view of RBI Monitory policy.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now its time to keep eye on ongoing fiscal cliff, so next Nifty take is depend on further development. Remember market in trading range (yeah a bit weakened) till our strong support zones are not broken down. If Nifty breaks 5580 on closing basis or with good volume then it would time to create some short positions.

Please watch for following levels - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630. If 5580 breakdown, there're few Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 to fill the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash. I am talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, if and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4% and end at 15.53 and F&O PCR is 0.82.

Opening seems subdued & a bit under pressure and then I see Nifty will remain range bound till EU opening.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	39271	1067.70	87888	2329.03	368768	9166.01	-1261.33
INDEX OPTIONS	452365	12744.19	452716	12797.48	1861747	52458.34	-53.29
STOCK FUTURES	46834	1357.25	61412	1679.14	1095626	29877.65	-321.89
STOCK OPTIONS	50530	1377.84	49462	1359.45	93347	2566.04	18.39

FII data is not very exciting now and showing weakness may be they have preferred to sit on cash ahead of Fiscal Cliff development. We can clearly see huge fall in OI in Index future which is decreased by 60,905 contracts and while they sold 48,617 contracts in Index Future.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty seems to developing trading range of 5500-5600-5900, Huge unwinding seen in Nifty Puts and Calls except good addition to 5700CE fresh addition of 16.89 lac & 5800CE fresh addition of 9.19Lacs. 5800CE has highest OI while on short side 5600PE has highest OI of 77.65 Lacs.

If you study (even can do on blog, refer old posts) its just a reverse case of Oct. series, in Oct. there were huge addition we had seen to 5400PE, 5500PE and 5600PE, just reverse we can see to 5800CE, 5900CE & 6000CE, it’s a method of ceiling i.e. to cap upside or downside, to now it would be interesting to see how Nifty is going to take these actions.

Resistance comes to 5653 - 5676 – 5702 and Supports comes to 5605 - 5580 – 5558. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5730 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625 & 5580, can lead to 5550-5500, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5779 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening seems subdued and under pressure. Nifty may remain range bound till EU opening.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Media Sector –

Digitization fuelled media sector, y’day we have witnessed good move in media stock, they will be on run for time being.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Dishman Pharma – Bought 98.7 TG short term booked profit at 108 SL 91, mid-term TG is 130 (Call was initiated by Venkata)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Intraday is best suitable or wait for EU cue is good. Don’t try your luck against market sentiment.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Morning Bells (15 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

I am not handsome but my thoughts & my hand are more than sufficient to make things beautiful because beauty lies in heart and not on face. – Written by MG

Oh!!so Deepawali jushna is over and we just saved our cash positions a day before y’day. So no firework on Diwali at D-Street. If you would have remember it was one and half month back statement about US election and EU crises, now both are trying to weaken the global economy. I have remembered a great Quwali of great Aziz Naza – “Pine Walon Ko Pine ka Bahana Chahiye” the same is happening currently. We are in same circumstances and in situation earlier to US Election infact a bit in better condition but as was told long ago if Obama come to power we will see weakness in the market, and now one can see what’s going on.

Well as told now market seems a bit more volatile than last series but still we are in a range. Well overall all the data which came is past 3 days are against market expectation and that’s market will see some pressure.

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday. Analysts on average had expected an annual WPI rise of 7.96 percent.

Industrial production unexpectedly shrank an annual 0.4 percent in September, compared with a forecast of a rise of 2.8 percent of experts.

India's annual consumer price inflation rose in October to 9.75 percent, government data showed. IIP for Sept was -0.4 v/s 2.7 mom.

There’re lot headlines on various webs filled with big experts advises saying “Worst is over and market is going to make new highs”, please read those articles carefully, its not short term view, they are expresses their view in one year perspective.

Rupee is falling more aggressively and I guess now its time for RBI to activate and this will help our market atleast to hold else we will lose what we have gained in past 6 months.

Another interesting research report - Indian economy is set to expand at the world's fastest rate over the next 50 years to emerge as a major force globally, but it would still rank as the second worst in terms of prosperity of its citizens.

Over the 50-year period between 2011-2060, India will register an annual economic growth rate of 4.9 per cent, as per a latest report by Paris-based international grouping of the world's leading economies, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (MoneyControl.com)

Meaning is simple if one can understand – the corrupt system will be continue, it will bring prosperity for corporate and not for its citizens while India’s GPS is growth will be 7 fold in this period, according to research team. Strange but we need to believe that it could be happened.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Since outcome of Industrial product, Inflation were not upto the expectation I had informed our readers that its better time to sit on cash as domestic as well as global market showing weakness time being. Remember it still not a bear market till our strong support zones are not broken down.

Please watch for following levels - 5685 - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630. If 5580 breakdown, there're I think 4 Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 by filling the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash.

Above all just a word of caution - once Nifty makes new high, we should be careful with FII, as first they fueled our mkt with cash and then with a silly reason they go away with cash at least once in a year, so just keep this also in mind. I dont see it too early may be around March/April +/- 2 months or just right now.

I am talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, if and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 3.5% and end at 14.86 and F&O PCR is 0.89.

Opening is seems gap down of around 30+ points, and then most probably market may remain in right range of +/- 20 points.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	8409	238.17	6711	177.24	429673	10773.47	60.93
INDEX OPTIONS	46933	1328.74	31014	882.84	1852526	52522.77	445.90
STOCK FUTURES	2163	57.22	1531	38.50	1087528	29700.55	18.72
STOCK OPTIONS	4249	121.90	5342	152.54	92919	2560.28	-30.64

OI in Index future decreased by 10,110 contracts and FII bought 1698 contracts in Index Future.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

As suggested Nifty seems in the range of 5500-5600-5900 is coming true, we have noticed unwinding in 6000CE & in 5900CE. If you study (even can do on blog, refer old posts) its just a reverse case of Oct. series, in Oct. there were huge addition we had seen to 5400PE, 5500PE and 5600PE, just reverse we can see to 5800CE, 5900CE & 6000CE, it’s a method of ceiling i.e. to cap upside or downside, to now it would be interesting to see how Nifty is going to take these actions.

Resistance comes to 5713 - 5742 – 5766 and Supports comes to 5660 - 5635 – 5606- 5584. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625 & 5580, can lead to 5550-5500, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5779 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening is seems gap down of around 30+ points, and then most probably market may remain in right range of +/- 20 points.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Infra Sector –

Lanco Infratech - has posted a net loss of Rs 136 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2012, while its revenues rose.

NCC - Consolidated profits after minority taxes of another infra major NCC Ltd declined by 62 per cent to Rs 11.35 crore for the quarter ended September 30, while its revenues increased.

GVK Power and Infrastructure - reported net loss of Rs 43.66 crore for period under review mainly due to interest burden and shortage of gas supply to the group's power projects.

GVK holds the unique distinction of managing and operating two of India's busiest airports, the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA) in Mumbai and the Bengaluru International Airport in Bangalore.

Adding another feather to its cap, GVK has signed an operations and management contract with The Airports Authority of Indonesia, (Angkasa Pura Airports API), the Indonesian government airport operator to manage the non-aeronautical commercial operations at Indonesia's second busiest Bali (Denpasar) International Airport.

The scope includes both, the existing terminals and the new international terminal which is currently under construction and is expected to open in the third quarter of 2013 with a major make-over.

Tata Motors –

TM is also planning to launch 7-8 new products/variants on its highly successful Ace mini truck platform, Ravi Pisharody, ED - commercial vehicles, said on last Thursday.