Good Morning Friends.
My Friends Vivek’s
Quote from Bhagwat Geeta – Tu karata wo hi he jo tu chahata he, par hota wo hi
he jo mein chahata hoon… Isliye tu kar wo hi jo mein chahata hoon, fir hoga wo
hi jo mein chahata hoon. (My words specially for option traders.)
Markets ended with slim gains on
Monday, started the week on a slightly positive note despite slightly increased
inflation figures compared to last month. It was also slightly above the experts’
expectations and I think was already priced in and digested. But Investors remained
on the sidelines as they choose to stay sideline ahead of heavyweight RIL
result and Axis Bank result which was set to announce later in the session.
India WPI at 7.81% as against
the consensus estimate of 7.7%. It was at 7.55% for the previous month and
10.00% during the corresponding month of the previous year.
RIL has posted its fourth
consecutive YoY drop in its Sept quarter profit on declining natural gas output
from its KG-DG fields and poor petchem margins. Net profit fell 5.7
per cent to Rs 5376 crore,YoY. Sales were however up 15.4% to Rs 93265 crore,
YoY. Its slightly above the experts expectations, experts were expecting 6%
fall in net income.
India's third largest private
sector lender Axis Bank on Monday reported 22% YoY rise in its second
quarter (Jul-Sept) net profit to Rs 1,124 crore, boosted by growth in
loans and other income. Net NPA ratio too rose slighly from 0.31 to 0.33%
sequentially.
So now we can say its inline, so
now it would be interesting to see how market reacts today. To my view, since
its inline so it wont hit the market and secondly Axis bank has also posted 22%
rise in profit and that’s market may continue its y’day inning further to make
an attempt to 5725.
On Govt. front, Govt. is trying
best to boost the macro-economy. On Monday, Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia,
deputy chairman of planning commission said that India's economic growth
is expected to bottom out in about six months. Statement will also help in
boosting sentiment.
While the Govt. has
already cleared a bulk of the 52 Oil and gas blocks that were stuck for defence
and environmental clearances.
The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) is scheduled to be held on October 19, 2012 FIPB to consider 50 FDI proposals this week. While India allows FDI in most of the segments through automatic route, the FIPB clears those proposals which are related to sensitive sectors like defence and telecom. (Rreports MoneyControl.com)
Need
to keep eye on statement of IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, she said
in IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Tokyo, “Global economic growth is being
weighed down by uncertainty about whether policymakers will deliver on their
policy commitments”, “We need action to lift the veil of uncertainty. Many of
us have debated what actions are needed, many of us understand what needs to be
done, but it actually needs to happen,” she added.
On
world’s second largest economy China - Retail level inflation in China
increased by 1.9% last month, China’s inflation was close to the slowest pace
in two years in September.
Thursday will be a noticeable event as China’s third-quarter
gross domestic product will be released.
MARKET OUTLOOK –
Though participants are taking
small positions but on broad basis market participants are in a wait-and-watch
mode before the RBI's important policy meeting on October 30. This attitude
giving sense that Oct. series will remain in a narrow range.
Now all eye will be on EU event on 18th
while ITC and Tata Consultancy Services will announce results on Friday.
Still it’s a No Trade Zone in regards to fresh
position. But one can start making position on selective scrip with consideration
to buy on dips.
NIFTY –
As
per big experts the bottom for the market is seems around 5600-5620, so it it
made attempt to thsese levels and sustain then Nifty is heading towards 6000 before
new year.
Well,
volume seen small but FII have created fresh longs. OI stands 2.46Cr.
5800CE
has highest OI of 91 lac with addition of 1 lac & 5900CE OI is 88Lac with
fresh addition of 2 lac. On short side 5600PE has highest OI of 76 lacs with
fresh addition of 7 lacs & 5500PE has OI of 60 Lacs with unwinding of 4.39
lacs, 2 lac fresh share added to 5700 PE and OI stand at 57 Lac.
Vix
fell 3.5% to 15.90 and Nifty PCR is 0.94.
Resistance
comes to 5703 – 5719 – 5746 - 5815 and Supports comes to 5660 – 5635 - 5518.
Opening seems slightly on positive
note say above first resistance and then market can opt range bound session
till EU cue. So better watch for strength on Nifty and make position only on
intraday basis.
STOCK OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully
and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can
decide stock move either side.)
My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra
& Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.
Cement
Sector –
Brokerage
CLSA has upgraded the cement sector to overweight.
Realty
Sector -
DLF
- Hearing a public interest litigation (PIL) on the Robert Vadra
matter, the Allahabad High Court has asked the Centre to respond to charges
levelled against Vadra
Steel Sector –
India is the 4th largest steel producer in the world and will soon be the second largest, said Union Steel Minister, Beni Prasad Verma on addressing the 46th Annual Conference of World Steel Association here y’day. The capacity is all set to increase further as Steel plants in both public and private sectors have taken up expansion and modernization programs, added Mr. Verma.
Steel makers are likely to face margin pressure
in the near-term even as raw material have eased, believes that the near-term
margin outlook for Indian steel companies remains weak, notwithstanding some
moderation in raw material prices recently, As a result of the downward journey
of steel prices, the imports of steel surged in current year exerting
significant pressure on domestic steel prices, which may continue to remain
under check in the near-term.
Tata Steel – Has
achieved best ever quarterly saleable steel production at 1.87 million tonnes
(MT) in the July-September period, in Q2 of the last fiscal, it had achieved 1.71 MT
of the saleable steel output, official said in a report on Tuesday last week.
Power Sector –
Another sign of reform has given by PM Mr. Singh in his inaugural address at the International Seminar on Energy Access in New Delhi y’dday, Mr. Singh said Govt has to provide 24x7 Electricity to all in 5 years.
Banks
Sector –
Banking sector will remain on focus as y’da
FinMin PC said that now its turn for RBI to support Govt. initiative.
IT Sector –
Investors
are entering to mid-cap IT industries on expectation that it will outperform in
near future while large cap seen some pressure y’day while IT heavyweight seems
under pressure.
Infy
– After disappointing Q2 and exit of CFO, it seems it will pickup its steam
sooner or later.
Auto Sector –
TM - Global wholesales of all passenger vehicles were at 48,895 nos. in September 2012, lower by 11%. Cumulative wholesales for the fiscal are 295,491 nos. higher by 14%.
Insurance and Pharma – FII
now eying on further reforms in
sectors like insurance and pharma, so next big earnings can come into both
sector.
OPEN CALLS –
(Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength)
DB Realty -
@79 for TG 110 SL 74 (created 1 week back, fresh call made y’day)
Deccan Chronicle Holdings &
DCB - suggested to exit y’day, keep eye on both stock, once Nifty will
settle from its under pressure behaviour both will shine. If you are still
holding then no prob, keep it for Mid term bet.
DhanBank -
@55 for TG 70 SL 45
Jindal Photo -
@145 for TG 160+ SL 130
Market may cheer to RIL & Axis results.
Still Nifty is not showing strength, it may remain range bound, play only for
small profit is the MG Mantra for the day. Before making any conclusion have a
look to Nifty OI.
Have
a Profitable day – MG
