Good Morning Friends.
A real
truth of life – When any relation is new, people find excuses to meet you… but
as it becomes old, people find excuses
to avoid you.
Oops!! First of all sorry friends
as my prediction was bang on Nifty since past 8-10 days, even I had informed
you all that there wont be any rate cut repeatedly. But today one prediction
about reaction of market after RBI outcome went wrong. I was expecting a sharp
fall if RBI disappoint and it was but all of sudden parliament proceeding take
place and banking amendment bill was put on the table same time. Yes, timing
match and then market recover very smartly from decline to positive.
The Reserve bank of India (RBI) in its mid-quarter review of
monetary policy kept policy rates unchanged on Tuesday. RBI has been decided to
keep the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks unchanged at 4.25% of
their net demand and time liabilities; and keep the policy repo rate under the
liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 8.0 per cent.
Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain
unchanged at 7.0 per cent, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) and the
Bank Rate at 9.0 per cent.
Well, a highly volatile trading
session ended with smart gains on Tuesday with the NSE Nifty just closing below
the 5900 mark.
Today’s rally was seen on the
back of optimism that the Banking Amendment Bill, which was tabled in the
Parliament with hope that it will clear.
Markets did see a sharp sell off
in the first half after the RBI disappointed with its verdict on interest
rates. In addition, positive cues from the International equity markets also
acted as a sentiment booster for market participants.
nfosys, Wipro, TCS, SBI, ICICI
Bank, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, Hindalco, Wipro, NTPC,
Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, BHEL, HDFC were among gainers while RIL, Maruti
Suzuki, ONGC, Bajaj Auto, HDFC Bank were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.
But now its clear that hopes for a rate cut in January 2013 and it will give
sustainability to market and specially to rate sensitive stocks, yes that will
drive the debt and the equity market.. On going forward stocks which were in
the list for new banking licence will rally.
Shriram Group, L&T Finance,
M&M Financial Services, Bajaj Finserve, Aditya Birla Nuvo and Tata Capital
among the top contenders for banking licence and surprisingly Reliance Capital,
IDFC are not in top list of experts.
MARKET OUTLOOK –
Now its time to see whether
market move forward from here onward on the hopes of new banking amendment bill
or choose to book profit as US fiscal cliff matter is still uncertain and no
visible sign for a settlement between Democratic & Republican seen till
date.
The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 3.2%
and ended at 14.44 against 14.92 and FNO PCR
is 0.91.
The rupee declined further and ended at 54.85/86,
weaker than its previous close of 54.84/86.
S&P 500
(US) ended lower at 1440 up 10.29 points at the time of writing Morning Bells.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18 Dec 2012
|
|||||||
BUY
|
SELL
|
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
|
Difference
|
||||
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
||
INDEX
FUTURES
|
44184
|
1308.84
|
44682
|
1323.15
|
433781
|
12711.43
|
-14.31
|
INDEX
OPTIONS
|
787042
|
23255.23
|
797109
|
23558.60
|
1601323
|
47281.79
|
-303.37
|
STOCK
FUTURES
|
100153
|
2995.25
|
104763
|
3096.43
|
1194745
|
34895.30
|
-101.18
|
STOCK
OPTIONS
|
93107
|
2659.80
|
94926
|
2718.01
|
76483
|
2145.20
|
-58.21
|
FII sold 498 contracts worth Rs. 14.31 Cr. and
OI increased by 18,570 contracts signalling that FII have created fresh longs
in Nifty & Bank Nifty.
NIFTY
OUTLOOK –
In short y’day was the day to hit SLs & TGs as
within few seconds Nifty fell down 40 points and then recover and went up 30+
points.
Today would be interesting to see whether market
move up on the approval of banking amendment bill or not.
So
remember – upside seems capped (except RBI surprise) and there’s more room for
downside. As discussed earlier Nifty will face resistance in the range of
5950-5980 (more accurately around 5965) and downside it will have strong
support around 5835 & 5785. So it would be better to keep 5785 as SL for
longs in Cash and 5835 for FNO. Mid term trend is still buy on dips.
Resistance comes to 5927 - 5957 – 56010 and
Supports comes to 5844 – 5792 – 5762.
Opening seems flat to positive.
STOCK
OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)
Banks –
On
approval of banking amendment bill now rate sensitive stocks will show good
move in near terms i.e. till next RBI policy outcome which is scheduled on 29
Jan. 12.
Keep
eye on – Axis Bank, SBI, Yes Bank, ICICI & HDFC seems good bet.
Realty, Infra & Power –
Realty – Will show
some strength on hope of rate cut.
Infra – Will show
some strength as after parliament session Govt. may go for some concrete
announcement. Keep eye on Rel Infra and IDFC.
Metals –
Metals shine y’day and gave strength to market. Out suggested
stocks moved up.
Metal will shine in near term, recommended metal stocks to watch
closely are Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries and Steel Authority of
India (SAIL).
============
OPEN CALLS ============
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows
strength.
Dishman
- @118 for TG 130+ SL 107
DB
Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)
============
INVESTMENT BASKET ============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3
months to 1 year)
Mahindra
Holiday – @334 TG 375+
Satyam
Computer – @103 TG 130+
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Trend will clear after first half hour trade.
So just wait for clear indication and then decide your trade.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer –
1. I
have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to
make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial
advisor.
2. Those
that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t
enter this market.======== DLF HAD GIVEN EXCELLENT BREAKOUT =========
(Wanted to post y'day but due to RBI announcement I dropped that idea as, as per my expectation RBI had to disappoint)
