Morning Bells (1 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Smooth road can never make good drivers. A problem free life never makes a person strong. So never ask “Why Me?” instead challenge it and always say “Try Me!”.

So we are trying free hand from last 2 sessions as world leader in economy US was closed for 2 days. Now hopefully today it will open. Well y’day markets ended with modest gains and managed to close above the 5600 mark once again. As told in y’day M Bells traded in a tight range once again with a slightly negative bias.

Pharma stocks were the top gainers and gained 1.78%, rate sensitive stocks which beaten badly on Tuesday got bounce back i.e. Auto & Realty index gained 1.5% and 1.3% while Capital Goods and the Oil & Gas index marginally slipped.

Y’day Kejariwal had accused RIL, RIL has stated that the statements made by IAC in the press conference today are devoid of any truth or substance whatsoever and are denied. The deep water exploration project in the KG-D6 basin has deployed the best technical resources and has been recognized by the oil and gas industry as one of the very best in its class, added RIL in a media report.

In another media report The Union Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram said that debt of a country must be sustainable and should be within the limits. No country can live beyond its means. He further added that serious efforts would also be made to bridge the gap in the Current Account Deficit (CAD) which presently stood at US$ 70.3bn. He said there are mainly three major heads to do the same i.e. through FDI, FIIs and ECBs (External Commercial Borrowings).

The deadline for complete switchover to digitization in the four metros ends Y’day. The percentage of digitization in the four Metro cities - Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Kolkata - has reached 85 per cent and only 15 per cent is remaining, said the latest government data. Major player Dish TV is optimistic and has seen massive demand. "Our numbers have gone up 10 times in Delhi and 6-7 times in Mumbai." Salil Kapoor, COO, Dish TV said to media.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

On RBI decision market reacted sharply but today it rebound which is giving sense for some profit taking ground in coming days. I have already warned repeatedly that till 6 big participants will remain sideline, they will enter if needed i.e. to save their positions only. There’s also higher chances that market can go for profit booking before US Prez election.

The INDIA VIX on NSE down 5% to end at 14.40 and F&O PCR is 0.81.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 31-Oct-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	21795	600.03	27735	769.43	381716	9338.48	-169.39
INDEX OPTIONS	292594	8199.93	281418	7891.35	1626980	45719.92	308.58
STOCK FUTURES	40996	1139.90	34667	938.01	1051031	27838.24	201.90
STOCK OPTIONS	33635	908.90	34750	943.75	54945	1425.47	1515.70

We can clearly see fall in volume and that was the reason market rebounded y’day and closed in GREEN. Well FII shorted Index future and went long in stock futures which is indicating that buying in selective scrip will be preferred.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty Derivatives Statics (Key Facts)
Strike	OI	Change in OI	IV	Strike	OI	Change in OI	IV
Longs created				Shorts created
5700-CE	55,93,450	8,09,200	11.73	5600-PE	54,40,700	5,39,650	14.7
5800-CE	51,73,500	4,59,600	11.71	5500-PE	48,09,900	3,93,600	15.18
5900-CE	59,52,300	4,14,450	11.66	5400-PE	48,03,250	4,52,150	15.83
6000-CE	52,34,600	3,37,550	12.08	5300-PE	54,69,550	2,64,050	16.68

Data shows huge addition to 5700CE, it was first day in new series when we have seen most no. of addition to 5700CE else it was either to 5900 or 6000 call was to 5500 or 5400 PE.

Resistance comes to 5635 - 5650 – 5676 and Supports comes to 5593 – 5566 - 5552. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5580 & 5530. Sp if 5530 broken Nifty will go for gap filling and we will see Nifty below 5500 Mark.

Opening seems under pressure with slightly negative bias.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals (New call) - @110 for TG 118+ SL 95

ICICI 1150CE - @7.25 (Average price) for TG 20+ SL (NA – Hero to Zero)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Ahead of US Election its advisable that keep only intraday or very short term positions. Trend could be sell on rise till 5675 is not taken out on closing basis.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.