Morning Bells (8 Jan 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Help is very expensive GIFT, so don’t expect it from everyone… and very few people are RICH by heart.

So it was a day just like y’day with a slight difference that today it fell down 28 points after a 20 point positive start. After a strong start to 2013, the equity markets are showing some signs of fatigue. Although the Nifty is trading above the breakout point of 5,930 and many experts believe it will touch 6100 mark very soon.

Now focus is likely to shift towards the Infosys earnings, which may continue to remain lackluster. Secondly same day we have IIP No.s so Thursday seems highly volatile and probably investor can opt cautious approach. But still Nifty is out of danger till 5930 is safe on closing basis.

Infosys, Wipro, Sun Pharma, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Steel, ONGC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindalco Inds, are among gainers while RIL,TCS, NTPC, BHEL, HDFC, SBI, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddys Lab, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Coal India, Tata Power, L&T, HUL, Gail India, Sterlite Inds,  are among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectorial - Oil and Gas, Auto, Healthcare, IT, Power, Consumer Durables, Metal, are the gainers while Realty, BANKEX, FMCG, Capital Goods, Power, PSU, Teck indices are the losers.

Stocks which hit 52-week high during the week were Ansal Prop, Reliance Cap, SBI, Essar Oil, Godrej Inds.

India had emerged as the world's largest rice exporter in 2012 beating its Asian counterpart Thailand with shipment of around 10 million tonnes, according to reports.

Interestingly still there are many nervous investors, sitting on the sidelines all this while, have started to dip their toes into the equity pound, hoping not to dive into a January trap.

Forex - A good way to judge market momentum is to look at the currency market. The dollar index currently is at the crucial 80-mark. The Asian sales desks have already started advising caution, citing the dollar index rise as an indication and some experts expecting a 10% correction.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

It seems market is under consolidation mode and can continue further for this week before going to attempt new high. As told earlier Q1 of 2013 seems better while Q2 & Q3 may go down and volatile, as political uncertainty will remain high in this period as election date will also be near.

So here onward I am expecting a range bound & cautious move till important data & RBI policy and market will react on corporate No.s, Govt. data announcement and finally on RBI policy announcement.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 0.74% and ended at 13.37 against 13.47 and FNO PCR is 0.91.

Indian rupee fell down one month low and closed at 55.23/27, weaker than its Friday close 55.07/55.08.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1457.75 down 8.72 at the time of writing M Bells.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is likely to witness further buying above 6,025 level and may trade within 6,080-5,950 range. Since Nifty is consolidating nicely, no surprise if we see 6100-6150 levels in coming days. But don’t expect any big move from here, trend is up but not on fundamental basis. Remember as told one need to lighten portfolio before RBI policy and to collect some cash before budget in March.

Now next trigger is IIP Nos and Infy Q3 earnings which is slated to announce on Friday 11 Jan 13.

Nifty is in range of 5835-5885-5990-6040-6090 for current & next week.

Resistance comes to 6027 – 6067 – 6092 and supports at 5962 – 5937 – 5897.

Opening seems flat to under pressure.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Power Grid Corporation –

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd has announced that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 03, 2013, have accorded Investment approval for 'Common Transmission Scheme associated with ISGS Projects in Nagapattinam / Cuddalore area of Tamil Nadu - Part-A1 (a)' at an estimated cost of Rs. 1.82bn, with commissioning schedule of 21 months from the date of investment approval.

IT Sector –

Slower growth in discretionary spending and delays in decision making of clients may continue to hurt Indian IT companies' revenue growth in the December quarter. Traditionally, the October-December quarter is a weak quarter for IT companies as the number of working days is lesser compared to other quarters due to the holiday season at the client locations.

Infy –

Infosys is planning to focus more on deals from corporations rather than government, which contributes about 90% to the company's revenue, according to reports.

Tata Motors –

Tata Motors has introduced an unbeatable four-year warranty on its entire range of heavy trucks with 25 tonnes and higher Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). With this, Tata Motors has become the first company in India to offer a standard 4-year warranty on heavy trucks, a clear reflection of the reliability and durability of Tata Motors trucks.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107 (CMP 116) – Stock was not performing and that book small profit @121.5

ICICI Jan 1200CE – @27 TG 40+ SL 21 (2 lot)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 341 (Gain +2%)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ (Active from 15 Dec 12) CMP – 108 (Gain +4%)

LakshmiVilas Bank – @105 TG 125+ SL 97 (Active from 27 Dec 12) CMP – 113 (Gain +5%)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ SL 41 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13) CMP – 48.45 (Gain +10%)

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stocks can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Keep eye on Wipro, Axis & Uco Bank. Will update call during market hours.

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

MG Blog –

Cash = 5250.00 (Old) + 2800 = 8050.00

On 7 Jan 13 – Sold Dishman @ 118 – booked profit @121.5 (3.5Rs x 200 Qty = 700)

On 7 Jan 13 – Sold (50%) LV Bank @ 107 – booked profit @126 (21Rs x 100 Qty = 2100)

FNO =  +13,500

Billionaire Club = +17,000 (Old) + 13.5K (On 4 Dec 13) = 30,500/-

Today’s MG Mantra –

Start lightening up your portfolio.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.