Morning Bells (12 Feb 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Never enjoy hurting the one who loves you a lot, they can bare the pain you give buy you cant bare if they reducd love for you… it’s a fact!.

Yes! Once again bang on, Nifty opened flat and remain range bound & struggle throughout the session for direction. Finally Nifty closed almost unchanged except closed below physiological level of 5900. Unfortunately 5900 mark don’t have any big support its just a physiological level like Bata Shoe @499.

Well the main reason for that is, participants chose to remain on the sidelines ahead of the IIP data to be released on Tuesday.

Gainers – RIL, Infosys, Bajaj Auto, Tata Power, SBI, Sun Pharma, HUL, Dr Reddys Lab, Hindalco, HDFC Bank, Cipla were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - TCS, Wipro, HDFC, Tata Steel, Hero MotoCorp, ONGC, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, BHEL were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral – Top losers, were BSE Capital Goods index was the top loser, down 1% followed by BSE Teck index down 0.54%, BSE IT slipped 0.5% and BSE Oil & Gas index edged lower 0.35%. Even the BSE Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap index edged lower by 0.16% and 0.33% respectively. And Gainers were BSE Realty index up 1%, BSE Healthcare index up 0.7% and BSE PSU index up 0.55%.

On Domestic Front –

Car sales in India declined by 12.45% to 1,73,420 units in January this year compared to 1,98,079 units in the same month of 2012, SIAM reportedly said.

Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) reported that motorcycle sales in last month grew by 7.45% to 8,86,527 units from 8,25,050 units in the same month previous year.

Total two-wheeler sales in January 2013 increased by 8.46% to 12,06,937 units from 11,12,767 units in the same period of previous year, says SIAM.

On Global front –

At the ongoing Edelweiss conference, investors feel the worst for the economy my be over. The foreign institution investors are more optimistic of India and Indian economy than their doemstic counterparts, according to Rashesh Shah of Edelweiss Financial Services .

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Today is the day of IIP No.s

Finally Nifty slipped and closed below just a physiological 5900 mark. Now there are many small supports for Nifty below 5900 mark. First it can find support around 5840, if broken then 5780-5800-5820 trio has some king of support from where Nifty can take a U-Turn. But again I would prefer to watch whether bulls & IIP NO.s manages to close Nifty above 5900 mark or not.

Though experts expecting disappointing IIP, but it comes worst than expected then market will react sharply, so one need to be cautious before IIP no.s. If there’s dip till 5840 mark then for cash segment this downside can be used to buy, people who have missed the rally in 2012 can join the party mean one can watch 2 levels, 5840 & 5780-5800-5820, these tri levels can be watched carefully and one can initiate fresh longs in this range, as all seems good support and hopefully market can bottom out from here. They can keep SL 5870 itself.

So, Benchmark indices may turn volatile in this week amid various economic data points to be announced. The IIP numbers will be announced next week. The other data points are WPI, Import-Export numbers for the month and CPI. A host of results will continue to flow in. But the market looks unlikely to stage any rally in the coming week.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 3.23% and ended at 15.65 against previous close of 15.16.

FNO PCR is 0.83 against previous close 0.90.

Indian Rupee fell 0.7% against USD by 35 paisa and was trading at 53.85 against its previous close 53.50. It’s a biggest drop since Jan. 4.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1516.45 down 1.48 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically, the Nifty violated critical support of 5940 on Friday. The near term support for the index is seen at the 5820 mark, which is also the 100 DMA. On the upside the 50 DMA could emerge as strong resistance zone near 5960 levels.

Keep eye on 5900 then on 5840 & 5780-5800, as market can not fall straight so there is possibilities of small rally which can be used to book profit and then again re-enter at lower levels.

Nifty is in range of 5780 – 5820 (100 DMA) - 5840 - 5900-5950-6040-6150-6190 for current series.

Resistance – 5966 – 5945 – 5921 and Support – 5876 – 5855 - 5831

Opening - seems flat and range bound ahead of IIP announcement.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

ONGC –

State-owned oil & gas producer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation 's (ONGC) net profit fell by 17.5 percent (lower than expected) year-on-year to Rs 5,562.7 crore in the third quarter of financial year 2012-13.

Net sales grew by 15.8 percent to Rs 20,987 crore from Rs 18,123 crore during the same period.

Analysts on an average were expecting net profit at Rs 5,340 crore on net sales of Rs 19,355 crore for the quarter.

NALCO-

The disinvestment of NALCO (The National Aluminium Company), which could fetch Rs 1,400 crore to the exchequer, is likely to hit the market during the first week of March after the Budget to ensure it is not impacted by volatility in the stock-markets.

The department of disinvestment (DoD) will start roadshows in Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, US and UK on February 19 for disinvestment of the state-run aluminium company. The roadshows would conclude on February 25, sources said.

Sun Pharma –

Sun Pharma ended almost unchanged on Monday. The company announced its demerger with Israeli drug maker Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd have agreed to terminate their merger agreement, announced in August 2012. The announcement made on Friday evening. The stock ended at Rs748 up by Rs.4. It touched a high of Rs.754 and a low of Rs. 745. Total traded quantity on the counter stood at over 0.25 lakh shares.

MCX -

MCX-SX, the newest bourse in town witnessed thin volumes in its maiden trade in equity shares on Monday. Total value of shares traded at MCX-SX stood at Rs.6.9mn. The new exchange is in direct competition for market share with the already established players such as NSE and BSE. Live trading in Equity and Equity Derivatives segment of MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) began from today.

Turnover (Rs. in Crs.) : 12.53 cr,

Trading Members enabled for trading: 198

Clearing Members enabled (Equity Segment): 198

Clearing Members enabled (F&0 Segment): 58

3 custodian clearing members were also active in today’s trade. They include ICICI Bank Ltd, HDFC Bank Ltd and Kotak Mahindra Bank ltd.

Hexaware Technology –

Hexaware Technologies gained by 3.3% after announcing fourth quarter results in-line with its previously revised forecast, and guided for a "double digit" revenue growth in 2013 with 150-200bps increase in the first quarter. The Group has posted a profit after tax of Rs. 5.66bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to Rs. 7.83bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011. Total Income has increased from Rs. 22.20bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 22.95bn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012. The stock ended at Rs. 84 up by Rs.2.75 in the day’s trade on BSE. It is currently trading at Rs. 84.10 up by Rs.2.60. It touched a high of Rs.88.60 and a low of Rs.81 Total traded quantity on the counter stood at over 11.83 lakh shares.

RCom-

Reliance Communications Limited, India’s fully integrated telecommunications service provider, today signed a eight-year full-scope managed services agreement with Ericsson for US$1 bn to operate and manage the wireline and wireless networks for Northern and Western states of India.

As per the contract, Ericsson will manage the day to day operations across wireline and wireless networks and will take over responsibility for field maintenance, network operations and operational planning of Reliance Communications 2G, CDMA and 3G mobile networks. This agreement is aimed to meet the fast evolving customer demand for communications applications and services in one of the world’s most dynamic telecom markets.

Tata Powr –

Tata Power Company Ltd has posted a net profit after tax, Minority Interest and Share of Profit / (loss) of Associates of Rs. (3289.20) mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 as compared to net profit of Rs. 2979.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 71156.90 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2011 to Rs. 90503.30 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2012.

Indian Hotels-

Luxury hotels operator Indian Hotels ' third quarter standalone net profit rose 28 percent year-on-year to Rs 65 crore, even as net sales grew at a slower 4 percent to Rs 545 crore.

Indian Hotels' finance costs declined to Rs 25 crore in Oct-Dec from Rs 31 crore in the year ago quarter. Also it had a lower exchange loss on long-term borrowings of Rs 1.50 crore compared with Rs 7 crore loss a year ago. In the year ago quarter, the company also had a exceptional loss of Rs 8 crore, which included shortfall towards a business interruption insurance claim.

The company also took some price hikes during the third quarter and feels it would be able to improve on that in the fourth quarter, which is typically a good quarter for the sector.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Axis Bank 1500CE – @19 TG 27+ Updated SL 12 (Active from 7 Feb 13)

Booked profit @25 y’day. Total gain +1500 per lot.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog (Jan+25,900) + Feb Ser. = +1500

(Axis bank 1500CE = +1500)

Billionaire Club (Jan +51,000) + Feb Ser. = +7500+5500 = +13000

(Axis bank Future bought 1463 Exit 1485 = +5500)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Don’t take fresh positions before IIP, one can take risk with shorts with strict SL 5940.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.