Morning
Bells (10 June 13)
Good Morning
Friends.
People say
that “No sorry” and “No Thanks” in the relationship but experience says that
these 2 words always save the relationship.
It was a highly
volatile trading session with the markets erasing 2013 gains. A sudden bout of
selling pressure in rate sensitive stocks put Nifty in RED. The benchmark
indices ended Friday with losses, closing the week with cuts of 1.5%.
The Nifty which soared past the 5,950 mark in early morning wiped out all its
gains to close in the red.
It declined almost 100 points
while the Bank Nifty fell around 235 points from the day’s high amid a sudden
bout of selling in interest rate sensitive stocks. Even mid and small-cap
stocks were not spared. The other major laggards included metals and capital
goods stocks.
IT sector rose on
Friday as strong rupee depreciation in the recent past is positive for Indian
IT players.
Overall HSBC May PMI, Reliance AGM, ECB’s no change
in interest rates and now weakened Rupee made Nifty to close 1.5% lower on
weekly basis.
Gainers –
Infosys,
TCS, Wipro, Tata Power, Dr Reddy'sLaboratories, Hero MotoCorp and Hindustan
Unilever were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.
Losers -
RIL, CoalIndia, BHEL, L&T, Bajaj Auto,
Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, SBI,ONGC, Tata Motors and Sun Pharmaceutical
were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.
Sectoral –
Domestic
Front –
Global
Front –
===================== MARKET OUTLOOK =====================
Now next big triggers CPI,
WPI Inflation on 12 and IIP on 14 or 15 and then RBI monetary policy review on
17th.
In short market is purely for short term traders where one can trade
only for intraday or for 1-2 days only.
The INDIA VIX on NSE was unchanged and
ended at 17.35 against previous close of 17.35.
FNO PCR was 0.94 against previous close 0.93.
Indian Rupee – Rupee declined further by 22 paisa and was trading at 57.06
against its previous close of 56.84.
S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1643.38 up 20.82 then its
previous close at the time of writing M Bells.
======================= NIFTY OUTLOOK
========================
As informed for fresh
longs Nifty need to close above 5940 last week itself which Nifty failed to
sustain the levels, now market moving towards weakness and may take small supports
at various levels 5880 / 5820-40 / 5785. Below 5785 which is 200 DMA it could
be a trend changer in short term.
But this week is
action packed so market can give some bounces which can be used to book profit
or exit i.e. we will see some good
rallies also but these rallies are likely to be short lived.
By that time I will
also reach to my old warning about Nifty outlook in which I had informed at the
beginning of June series that second half of series is not safe for longs and
rate sensitive stocks would be on sellers RADAR - “If weakness continue then
rate sensitive stocks will lead, specially banks will be on sellers radar.”
Opening – Seems flat or positive one with two reasons, first US
bounced back on its jobless data and secondly somehow Nifty just closed above
5880.
======================== STOCK OUTLOOK
======================
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)
TM
TM failed to sustain its range
306-312, this is second time when it went below 300 after breaking 312. Still
its closed above 300, so here I guess stock may struggle again. 281 is the
level for investors as SL. I again believe once market will stabilize it will
make new high else it will struggle.
MSX –SX -
Adding yet another
milestone to the recent and rapid spate of developments at MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX),
the Exchange launched its dedicated debt market segment. MCX-SX also announced
that the Equity and Equity derivatives segment turnover has crossed Rs. 1,000 crore and turnover of derivatives on its
flagship index ‘SX40’ has crossed Rs. 500 crore
mark.
RCom & Rel Jio -
Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. and Reliance Communications Ltd.
announced the signing of a definitive agreement for sharing of RCOM’s
nationwide telecom towers infrastructure.
Under the terms of the agreement, Reliance Jio Infocomm will
utilise upto 45,000 ground and rooftop based towers across RCOM’s nationwide
network for accelerated roll-out of its state-of-the-art 4G services.
The agreement provides for joint working arrangements to configure
the scope of additional towers to be built at new locations to ensure deep
penetration and seamless delivery of next generation services.
This agreement follows the inter-city optic fiber sharing
agreement already signed in April 2013 as part of a comprehensive framework of
business co-operation between Reliance Jio Infocomm and Reliance Communications
3rd Spectrum auction in Aug.13 –
Even as companies like Bharti Airtel , Vodafone and Reliance
Communication stayed away from spectrum auction held in March, the Department
of Telecom is gearing up for another round of spectrum auction in August.
Spectrum EGoM will be meeting by the end of this month to finalise the reserve
price for the third auction round, CNBC-TV18's Malvika Jain reports.
Telecom players like Bharti Airtel , Vodafone and Idea argue that
since they were given spectrum under an earlier regime, their licenses should
be extended along with spectrum. Their licenses are coming up for renewal in
2014 in some circles.
In March, none of the telcos participated in the
auction, especially for 900 Megahertz (Mhz) band spectrum, which is
considered to be more efficient spectrum band.
Banking sector - RBI May disappoint -
Reserve Bank of India today said food prices will
remain at a higher level despite average inflation in the country being
expected to moderate to around 5.5 per cent this fiscal. "We see food
prices continue to remain high, partly because income levels have gone up.
Increasing real informal wages has been a major drive of inflation," RBI
Executive Director Deepak Mohanty said here.
"We have higher inflation.
We are also a developing nation and so it's good to have some amount of
inflation," Mohanty said.
New Banking Licence -
The first committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does an
interim scrutiny by September-October.
On the new bank-licence clarifications announced by the RBI on
Monday and the stocks that might be impacted Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M)
& Tata Capital and L&T Finance .
On the PSU side - Power Finance Corporation (PFC) & Rural
Electrification Corporation (REC)
have a good chance of getting bank licences. However, since the
process is long-drawn it is not a very near-term trigger. But when the licences
are issued, it will be a big positive for those that do get the licences.
====================
OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t
shows strength.
Union
Bank – 230CE @4.75 TG 7+ SL 2 (Max 2 lots)
TS
310CE – @5.5 TG 10+ SL 288 in Cash (Max 1
lots)
HDFC 860CE
– @12 TG 20+ SL 9 (Max 2 lots)
===============
INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3
months to 1 year)
============
PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw
our attention)
MG
Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)
June 2013 = 00
Billionaire
Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)
June 2013 = +13,900 – 4000 = +9,900
(Booked loss in Rcom future = -2000, Booked
loss in Lupin Future = -2000)
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Action packed week, use rallies to
book profits.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer –
1. I
have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to
make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial
advisor.
2. Those
that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t
enter this market.
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