Sunday, 9 June 2013

Morning Bells (10 June 2013)



Morning Bells (10 June 13)
Good Morning Friends.

People say that “No sorry” and “No Thanks” in the relationship but experience says that these 2 words always save the relationship.

It was a highly volatile trading session with the markets erasing 2013 gains. A sudden bout of selling pressure in rate sensitive stocks put Nifty in RED. The benchmark indices ended Friday with losses, closing the week with cuts of 1.5%. The Nifty which soared past the 5,950 mark in early morning wiped out all its gains to close in the red.

It declined almost 100 points while the Bank Nifty fell around 235 points from the day’s high amid a sudden bout of selling in interest rate sensitive stocks. Even mid and small-cap stocks were not spared. The other major laggards included metals and capital goods stocks.

IT sector rose on Friday as strong rupee depreciation in the recent past is positive for Indian IT players.

Overall HSBC May PMI, Reliance AGM, ECB’s no change in interest rates and now weakened Rupee made Nifty to close 1.5% lower on weekly basis.

Gainers –
Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Tata Power, Dr Reddy'sLaboratories, Hero MotoCorp and Hindustan Unilever were among the major gainers in Sensex & Nifty.

Losers -
RIL, CoalIndia, BHEL, L&T, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, SBI,ONGC, Tata Motors and Sun Pharmaceutical were among the major losers in Sensex & Nifty.

Sectoral –

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================
Now next big triggers CPI, WPI Inflation on 12 and IIP on 14 or 15 and then RBI monetary policy review on 17th.

In short market is purely for short term traders where one can trade only for intraday or for 1-2 days only.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was unchanged and ended at 17.35 against previous close of 17.35.

FNO PCR was 0.94 against previous close 0.93.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined further by 22 paisa and was trading at 57.06 against its previous close of 56.84.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1643.38 up 20.82 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================
As informed for fresh longs Nifty need to close above 5940 last week itself which Nifty failed to sustain the levels, now market moving towards weakness and may take small supports at various levels 5880 / 5820-40 / 5785. Below 5785 which is 200 DMA it could be a trend changer in short term.

But this week is action packed so market can give some bounces which can be used to book profit or exit i.e. we will see some good rallies also but these rallies are likely to be short lived.

By that time I will also reach to my old warning about Nifty outlook in which I had informed at the beginning of June series that second half of series is not safe for longs and rate sensitive stocks would be on sellers RADAR - “If weakness continue then rate sensitive stocks will lead, specially banks will be on sellers radar.”

Opening – Seems flat or positive one with two reasons, first US bounced back on its jobless data and secondly somehow Nifty just closed above 5880.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================
(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM
TM failed to sustain its range 306-312, this is second time when it went below 300 after breaking 312. Still its closed above 300, so here I guess stock may struggle again. 281 is the level for investors as SL. I again believe once market will stabilize it will make new high else it will struggle.

MSX –SX -
Adding yet another milestone to the recent and rapid spate of developments at MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX), the Exchange launched its dedicated debt market segment. MCX-SX also announced that the Equity and Equity derivatives segment turnover has crossed Rs. 1,000 crore and turnover of derivatives on its flagship index ‘SX40’ has crossed Rs. 500 crore mark.

RCom & Rel Jio -
Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. and Reliance Communications Ltd. announced the signing of a definitive agreement for sharing of RCOM’s nationwide telecom towers infrastructure.
Under the terms of the agreement, Reliance Jio Infocomm will utilise upto 45,000 ground and rooftop based towers across RCOM’s nationwide network for accelerated roll-out of its state-of-the-art 4G services.
The agreement provides for joint working arrangements to configure the scope of additional towers to be built at new locations to ensure deep penetration and seamless delivery of next generation services.
This agreement follows the inter-city optic fiber sharing agreement already signed in April 2013 as part of a comprehensive framework of business co-operation between Reliance Jio Infocomm and Reliance Communications

3rd Spectrum auction in Aug.13 –
Even as companies like Bharti Airtel , Vodafone and Reliance Communication stayed away from spectrum auction held in March, the Department of Telecom is gearing up for another round of spectrum auction in August. Spectrum EGoM will be meeting by the end of this month to finalise the reserve price for the third auction round, CNBC-TV18's Malvika Jain reports.

Telecom players like Bharti Airtel , Vodafone and Idea argue that since they were given spectrum under an earlier regime, their licenses should be extended along with spectrum. Their licenses are coming up for renewal in 2014 in some circles.

In March, none of the telcos participated in the auction, especially for 900 Megahertz (Mhz) band spectrum, which is considered to be more efficient spectrum band.

Banking sector - RBI May disappoint -
Reserve Bank of India today said food prices will remain at a higher level despite average inflation in the country being expected to moderate to around 5.5 per cent this fiscal. "We see food prices continue to remain high, partly because income levels have gone up. Increasing real informal wages has been a major drive of inflation," RBI Executive Director Deepak Mohanty said here.

"We have higher inflation. We are also a developing nation and so it's good to have some amount of inflation," Mohanty said.

New Banking Licence -
The first committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does an interim scrutiny by September-October.

On the new bank-licence clarifications announced by the RBI on Monday and the stocks that might be impacted Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) & Tata Capital and L&T Finance .

On the PSU side - Power Finance Corporation (PFC) & Rural Electrification Corporation (REC)

have a good chance of getting bank licences. However, since the process is long-drawn it is not a very near-term trigger. But when the licences are issued, it will be a big positive for those that do get the licences.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================
# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.
# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Union Bank – 230CE @4.75 TG 7+ SL 2 (Max 2 lots)

TS 310CE – @5.5 TG 10+ SL 288 in Cash (Max 1 lots)

HDFC 860CE – @12 TG 20+ SL 9 (Max 2 lots)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============
(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============
(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)
June 2013 = 00

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)
June 2013 = +13,900 – 4000 = +9,900
(Booked loss in Rcom future = -2000, Booked loss in Lupin Future = -2000)

Today’s MG Mantra
Action packed week, use rallies to book profits.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –
1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.
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