Morning Bells (21 Jun 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Time never stops for anyone, then why do we always wait for the right time? No time is wrong to do the right things.

Two things are very clear here what I had stated more in advance, first, global market would react sharply to Fed if it disappoint, and secondly after 100+ bounce last week from 5700 to 5800, clearly informed to exit longs in this rally else you would stuck. Both were on right spot.

I am also surprised by repeated demand of suggestion most of time when market falls drastically, I just want to say, don’t impatience, try to see where market is going on, else you will be in deep loss one day.

So once again nothing much is here to say as it was biggest fall of 2013, financial markets triggered by comments from the Federal Reserve overnight. The Fed said it would start scaling back its stimulus measures later this year if the economy is strong enough. There was nothing new in this statement but the huge built up of leveraged positions is what led to the cascading fall across asset classes.

The fall could be around 120 points but it was boosted by in later part by a sharp depreciation in the Indian currency against the dollar. The rupee hit an all-time low of 59.97 per dollar in the spot market while it struck 60.17 in the futures segment.

Still don’t think everything would be OK, Rupee is on RADAR with a simple reason, dollar has been strengthening against a basket of countries with high current account deficits on improving US economic data. With India having the second largest current account deficit in the world, in absolute terms, it faces the risk of further depreciation

Gainers –

Losers -

Sectoral –

The realty index was the top loser in trade today, down 5.1%. Hopes of an interest rate cut next month were dashed with no respite in the rupee weakening. Other major laggards were metals, banks, power and the oil and gas, which saw cuts of almost 3% each.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

This week is also important as near term direction will be determined by the Iranian elections.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4% and ended at 19.19 against previous close of 18.29.

FNO PCR was 0.83 against previous close 0.89.

Indian Rupee – Rupee ended all time low and was down by 1.14 Rs. and was trading at 59.85 against its previous close of 58.71.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1604.70 down 24.23 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Finally Nifty breached its strong support 5685, and now heading towards 5630, if it doesn’t hold on closing basis then we may see 5500 or precisely 5477 around level sooner or later. There onward 5200 is also on card.

Opening – Again seems down and under pressure because all global market ended deep RED and now Rupee will put pressure further on FII.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM

TM finding support around 289, and have good support at 278-281 zone. So probably if Nifty goes range bound to stable, TM would be on ride.

Companies declares dividend -

Despite choppy and volatile stock markets, shareholders of the 30 Sensex stocks are in for over Rs. 360 billion bonanza in terms of dividend payouts by these companies, according to a media report.

While promoters of these top blue-chip companies will get around Rs. 155 billion as their share in this dividend bonanza, the non-promoters, including retail investors and institutions, would also receive around Rs. 200 billion, the report added.

Among the companies include Dena Bank, Bank of India, Union Bank, NIIT Technologies, Hero MotoCorp, Bharti, Adani, DLF and Torrent that are opting to distribute a higher proportion of profits to shareholders rather than use the same in their businesses.

Over 70 stocks hit all time low -

It would be surprised but its true, our leaders are talking about good growth and corruption is at its high. They also claims everything is fine and these volatility is temporary but think about investors who have invested in below listed companies, they have hit all time low and now will take several year to come above the buy price or may be they can shut their shops.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-edge/carnagedalal-st-over-70-stocks-hit-all-time-low_902345.html#toptag

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

HDFC 860CE – @12 TG 20+ Today’s updated SL 5 after first hour trade (Max 2 lots)

(Booked loss @2)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

June 2013 = -8500-5000 = -13,500

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)

June 2013 = +9,900 – 8500 = +1400

Today’s MG Mantra –

Better to sit on cash, or enter for small trade only and that too for intraday.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.