Morning Bells (26 Jun 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Earlier I had selected another line for today’s MB but just got this wonderful line and best fitted in today’s scenario when market is falling because Rupee is falling, so have a thought on such a nice lines.

Rupeeya chahe kitna bhi gir jaaye, magar… itna kabhi nahi gir paayega, jitna…. Rupeeye ke liye insaan gir chuke hai.

As told repeatedly, nothing has changed fundamentally and that’s sentiment remains same, that is what just happened y’day. Global markets were positive, even Shanghai to given breather and market rallied almost 90+ points but finally indices closed almost flat and pared the gains amid huge volatility.

Market opened flat, bounced back, but failed to sustain thrice. However, a strong opening in Europe and a recovery in China boosted sentiment. It was enough to power the Sensex 315.01 points and Nifty 96 points during the day. But profit booking at higher levels resulted in the indices ending flat.

Oil and gas, capital goods, FMCG, auto and realty stocks led the post noon upswing. On the other hand, power, pharma and metals stocks lagged. What's worrying is there are no signs of the selling pressure in mid-cap and small-cap stocks abating.

Gainers –

Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, Reliance Infrastructure, M&M, BPCL, Bank of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Hindalco were among the major gainers.

Losers -

Tata Power, Cairn India, Power Grid, Lupin, NTPC, SBI, NMDC, ICICI Bank and Coal India lost out steam.

Sectoral –

Domestic Front –

SEBI approves overhaul of foreign investment rules –

The SEBI Board met in Mumbai and took the following main decisions:

Amendments to SEBI (Buy Back of Securities) Regulations, 1998 governing buy-back through open market purchase

As part of SEBI's constant endeavour to align regulatory requirements with the changing market realities as well as to enhance efficiency of the buy-back process

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Rally seen Y’day in the market should not be misunderstood as an uptrend, market recovered just on the back of short covering and recovery in China. Trend is down and its intact till today, may market can go range bound till expiry, but downward journey seems continue till next few more sessions.

The Nifty is trading close to its crucial psychological level of 5600 on account of foreign institutional selling and concerns over Chinese growth. From its peak of 6229 hit on May 20, the Nifty has fallen 10.65%.

 Given the huge volatility in markets, it is not surprising that investors are rushing to the comfort provided by fixed income options. But given that India's long-term story is intact, the moot question is whether investors use the fall as a buying opportunity.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 0.62% and ended at 21.14 against previous close of 21.01.

FNO PCR was 0.94 against previous close 0.92.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained by 02 paisa and was trading at 59.66 against its previous close of 59.68.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1591.23 up 18.14 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

The market is likely to remain volatile in the near ahead of the June series F&O expiry this week.

Investors should stick around at 5540-5600 levels for some more time and wait for markets to stabilise. A confirmation of reversal comes above 5835-5870. Many investors believe current fall will calm down around 5477 and it would be hold. My view is if its broken then 5200 is on card.

Opening – Seems positive and some more short covering can take place ahead of expiry.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM -

Rupee signalling a small bounce, so TM is also expect a bounce, chances to touch 292 levels are high.

Pharma Sector-

The Ranbaxy scrip was in action today after sliding over 7% in early trades. It set a new 52-week low today. However, the stock staged a sharp recovery after the Supreme Court dismissed a PIL seeking a probe against the company for alleged manufacture and sale of substandard medicines. The plea was dismissed for lack of evidence against the company.

In related news, media reports suggest the Central Bureau of Investigation is conducting search operations at Aurobindo Pharmaceutical in relation to the Jagan Mohan Reddy case.

Crompton Greaves –

Crompton Greaves surged 10.49% to Rs 82.15 at 15:26 IST on BSE after the company said its board will meet on Friday, 28 June 2013, to consider a proposal to buyback shares.

The stock hit a high of Rs 84.35 and a low of Rs 71.70 so far during the day. The stock had hit a 52-week high of Rs 141.70 on 8 October 2012. The stock had hit a 52-week low of Rs 73.10 on 24 June 2013.

Crompton Greaves' consolidated net profit declined 74.8% to Rs 25.27 crore on 10.1% growth in net sales to Rs 3387.30 crore in Q4 March 2013 over Q4 March 2012.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

HDFC 820CE – @6.5 TG 10+ Updated SL 5 (Max 2 lots)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to April 13 (Total 58,800)

June 2013 = -13,500 – 1000 = -14,500

(Booked HDFC @9, profit 2500, booked loss in TM 290CE = -2000 (2 lots) booked loss in L&T 1340PE bought @9 SL hit @6 = -1500)

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to May 13 (Total 1,22,200)

June 2013 = +9,900 – 8500 = +1400 + 1500 = +2900

(L&T Fut. Shorted @1380 booked @1366 = +3500, TM 290CE, booked loss 2000)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Current correction seen in the Indian equity market is not due to domestic reasons but widespread negative sentiment globally, more pain can be seen in coming days so its better to sit on cash, or enter for small trade only and that too for intraday.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.