Morning Bells (26 Sept 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Very true for market – Race can not be won by accelerating on Top Gear but it can be won only by changing gear on right time.

Sept. series EXPIRY-

Indian market ended with marginal losses ahead of F&O expiry amid late recovery witnessed in the scrips across the board. The rebound was on the back of long rollovers seen in the telecom, metals and the capital goods stocks. Among the other major contributors to y’day’s recovery were the power, healthcare and select IT stocks.

The recovery was so strong that the Nifty recouped almost 75 points while the Bank Nifty recovered nearly 175 points from day’s low. 

Currency –

Rupee has weakened for the fourth straight day and was trading at 62.80/$ as compared with previous close of Rs 62.77 per dollar.

The Reserve Bank of India  allowed all companies to avail trade credit in favor of overseas supplier from banks not exceeding $20 mn for upto a maximum period of five years for import of capital goods.

Election Drama continue -

What I can say about most of fool people of this country or selfish people of this country. Most of Govt. I remember my village days where politician do corruption for 55+ months and just for 2 months they distribute grains and desi made wine and they get permit for corruption for next 5 years. Very sad but we need to accept the facts.

If we look to current UPA, lot of corruption charges are there, big scams and in last 5 months we are getting no fuel hike, increment etc. And fool people will think for themselves only and will vote for greed. Strange!

Well, The Finance Minister P.Chidambaram in a statement said here today that the Prime Minister has approved the constitution of the Seventh Central Pay Commission.

The fourth, fifth and sixth Central Pay Commissions’ recommendations were implemented as follows:

4th CPC                       1.1.1986
5th CPC                       1.1.1996
6th CPC                       1.1.2006
 

The average time taken by a Pay Commission to submit its recommendations has been about two years.  Accordingly, allowing about two years for the 7th CPC to submit its report, the recommendations are likely to be implemented with effect from 1.1.2016.

The names of the Chairperson and members as well as the terms of reference (ToR) of the 7th Pay Commission will be finalised and announced shortly after consultation with major stakeholders.

Global Fears & Facts (Must read) -

Before reading and writing about it, I just text to Rahul Singh to transform some news into trade decision and found it.

USTreasury Secretary Jack Lew warned Congress on Wednesday that the United States would exhaust its borrowing capacity no later than Oct 17, at which point it would have only about USD 30 billion in cash on hand.

The fresh estimate adds another layer of pressure on lawmakers to raise the USD 16.7 trillion debt limit and comes as Congress struggles to pass a spending bill to keep the government funded beyond Oct 1, when the new fiscal year starts.

The fate of the debt ceiling is up in the air with Democratic and Republican lawmakers once again deeply divided over how to extend the Treasury's borrowing authority.

MG’s view – report says we are still not out of wounds and any rumours can make a knee jerk to whole global market. So we need to play for small range only till Oct. 17.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

We are round the corner of expiry and Nifty is closed below 5930. Interesting to see now how Nifty will behave over next couple of sessions. For me I will trade only intraday with right SL. On down side my SL would be 5870 and on upside its 5990. Range is narrow.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 5990 - 6030 - 6145 - 6180 - 6230

S - 5870 – 5850 - 5780 - 5700

Nifty moving band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Banking (Must read)-

PSU banks are expected to report substantial MTM losses on their non-SLR AFS investments in the current quarter as yields across maturities have hardened materially. We estimate our PSU Banks universe to deliver a near zero earnings CAGR over FY13-15. Don’t see any relent in the multiple headwinds bogging PSU Banks. Valuation to remain under pressure; so no case to BUY. Top Sells are SBI, BOB, Allahabad Bank and Andhra Bank in next series.

Telecom (Good to know)–

Telecom regulator TRAI today recommended that mobile number portability (MNP) be fully implemented across the country within six months to allow subscribers to retain their numbers even when they shift from one service area to another. Presently, Mobile Number Portability is available only within the subscribers' service area. When MNP is implemented fully, subscribers in Andhra Pradesh, for example, will be able to port their numbers to Karnataka, Maharashtra, Haryana and so on.

OMCs -

As discussed y’day - Shares of state-owned oil marketing companies – BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil ended lower by ~4% after petroleum minister Veerappa Moily ruled out an increase in diesel and LPG prices for now.

KFA –

Another UC for stock, discussed y’day - Shares of Kingfisher Airlines was locked at 10% upper circuit on reports that the group is in talks with a foreign investor for potential stake sale.

L&T –

L&T is reportedly planning to sell 26% stake in the Hyderabad Metro project and 50% stake in Dhamra Port project is close to Rs 4,200 crore.

The company is planning to list L&T IDPL in tSingapore stock exchange via the trust route to raise another Rs 4,000 crore, says report.

Media report said that Of the sale proceeds, L&T will deploy Rs 6,200 crore in the existing projects.

The company is also plans to sell  assets to raise close to Rs 8,200 crore.

Maruti -

Maruti Suzuki is planning to increase the prices of range of models by up to Rs 10,000 from October first week, according to reports.

Report said that the quantum of price increase will vary according to different models and fuel specifications.

The quantum of price increase will vary according to different models and fuel specifications, and will be effective from the first week of October, he added.

"The amount of price hike will vary between Rs 3,000 and Rs 10,000,"Maruti  Suzuki India (MSI) Chief Operating Officer (Marketing and Sales) Mayank Pareek reportedly said.

The prices of Maruti Suzuki vehicles start from Rs 2.35 lakh and goes up to Rs 10.21 lakh.

RIL –

Reliance Industries has challenged the oil ministry that if it thinks there is more gas in the declining fields, it should direct ONGC to drill additional wells, according to reports.

Last month, Oil ministry prepared a proposal to deny higher prices to RIL for gas produced from D1 and D3 fields of the KG-D6 block.

Moily reportedly said the ministry had not sent its earlier proposal to the Cabinet.

"There are a lot of legal implications, contractual implications," he said.

Based on DGH's view, oil ministry under Reddy imposed a penalty of $1 billion on the company.

CALL LOG –

Keep eye on – HDIL, Maruti & L&T (expecting to move up)

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