Morning Bells (10 Oct 13)

Good Morning Friends.

All the relations are like an insurance policy, we should pay the premiums of feelings, love & care regularly to maintain the relations.

It was a great recovery on D street and Nifty managed to close above physiological level of 6000 but still its closed in critical range of 5990-6020. Above 6020 there are few strong resistance in narrow range, so even if Nifty showing strong momentum it would not be easy climb upside. Only a case if it can give a try like y’day then short covering will help to break further levels at once.

Well the main reason was the trade deficit which narrowed and this data will also help in CAD & to Rupee which was indeed a positive sign for market which was witnessing pressure since currency fall.

The complete story is - market shot up by 1.5% on Wednesday as trade deficit surprisingly narrowed to a two-and-a-half-year low in September. The deficit stood at US$6.7bn, the lowest level since March 2011, compared with US$10.9bn in August.

Another highlight was - Merchandise exports rose by 11.15% year-on-year in September to US$27.68bn posting a third straight month of annual growth, while, Imports fell 18.1% year-on-year to US$34.44bn.

And feather of the news was - In addition, the gross direct tax collections rose only 10.66% to Rs. 3.01 lakh crore during the April-September period of 2013-14 fiscal. The collections totalled Rs. 2.72 lakh crore in the same period of 2012-13 fiscal.

Barring the BSE consumer durables index, all the other major BSE sectoral indices ended with gains. The BSE realty index was the top gainer (up 4.2%) followed by BSE Healthcare index up 2%, BSE Bankex index up 2%, BSE capital goods up 1.8% and BSE power index up 1.5%.

Why infra sector is zooming now days?

Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI) will shortly enjoy the option to overrule meaningless objections of infrastructure related ministries that have been hindering execution of mega projects until now so that it is able to approve of stalled projects, disclosed,  Dr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission.

The UPA Government is going to empower the CCI on this front after it has been recommended by Cell in CCI on fast track projects, exceeding investments of Rs. 1000 crores which is headed by Anil Swarup, Additional Secretary, added Dr. Ahluwalia, while inaugurating “Infrastructure Conclave 2013” organized by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, here today on the subject of Fast Tracking Stalled Projects”.

Dr. Ahluwalia pointed out that CCI, which was set up to facilitate faster clearances for mega projects, hanging on fire due to various reasons, needs to be empowered with an option to overrule meaningless objections of infrastructure related ministries on one pretext or other which arise out of petty issues so that stalled fast track projects are cleared in one go.

(Source: IIFL)

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As discussed in opening para Nifty is closed in critical range, first it need to breach 6020 decisively then it need to take out 6135 and lastly 6200, we are going to make new high. But it all depends how their next week should pan out.

And next week is full of thrill, the world has never seen US defaulting in a direct manner, will that eventuality occur not occur, the market today is definitely not pricing that in. They are hoping that eventually things will settle down. So clearly, if the momentum is in favour of India but there are events which we need to watch out for.
So, one must also not forget the looming US debt crisis and its possible impact on world economies, so that too could be keeping the investors away and the confidence to go long in the market at higher level is missing.

So be cautious here at levels 6050 / 6100-6115 / 6200-6235 and nothing harm in taking precautions, max to max you will lose few rupee earning but any mishap can prevent you from big loss. That’s the MG’s tag line till levels not crossed.
MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6020 - 6194 – 6140/45 – 6230 (5990-6020 range can be act as crucial resistance and trend changer)

S – 5840 – 5762 - 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

DMA – 100DMA – 5806, 200DMA - 5840

Technical Trend changer supports – 5715 – 5580 – 5535 – 5250 - 5120

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

11 Oct – IIP & PMI data, Result – Infy

12 Oct – Dussera Holiday

14 Oct – WPI, Result Baja Corp, Indusind Bank, RIL

15 Oct – HDFC Bank, TCS

16 Oct – Bajaj Auto

17 Oct – US senate voting decision, Result HCL Tech.

21 Oct – Result – KTK Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Sesa-Ster

Sesa Sterlite said that its mined metal production increased by 16% in Q2 and 22% in H1 compared with the corresponding prior periods respectively, and we expect to deliver approximately 950kt of mined metal production during the year.

Tata Steel –

Tata Steel today said that its Hot Metal production stood at 2.46 million tonnes in Q2 (up by 19% y-o-y) and 4.93 million tonnes in H1 (up by 20% y-o-y).

Tata Communication –

Tata Communications today announced the extension of its low latency network in Asia with direct connections to the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), the Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx). The low latency network further extends the company's global financial trading connectivity network. As a result, it will support mission critical, real-time trading applications by seamlessly connecting the exchanges with major financial capitals in Asia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Tata Communications' low latency network is faster than traditional point-to-point systems. The pure Ethernet platform with native multipoint support enables financial trading businesses and other companies that require latency sensitive connectivity to respond faster in the dynamic Asian market. The global network integrates exchanges with market leading low latency connectivity to Europe and beyond, enabling firms to reach major financial centres, such as in Chicago and London in milliseconds, through a single network and single supplier model.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000 + 250 = -750 – 1250 = -2K

Exited Infy call spread with 10 point loss

Open Call –

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