Morning Bells (15 Oct 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Good people change themselves according to situation, but only the smart people change the situation according to them.

So as expected Nifty seen some pressure y’day and now today it may enjoy RIL Q2 NO.s but soon US senate voting fire will catch up. Overall it could be a volatile day or a day like y’day. So let see how market pan out today.

Positive news for market is that participant ignored higher inflation kept Nifty above 6000 mark, September wholesale price inflation (WPI) hitting an eight-month high.

WPI for the month of September 2013 came in at of 6.46%; it was at 6.1% in August and 5.85% in July. Here one should learn that a massive increase in food prices was a major driver of wholesale price inflation.

Today is also day of industry heavyweights TCS and HDFC Bank and from both good Q2 nos. are expected.

RBI Monetary Policy –

After weak WPI & CPI no.s now many experts start talking about a possibility of 25 bps repo rate hike in the forthcoming monetary policy.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Today could be a day of cheers as TCS and HDFC Bank both are expected to come with good nos. But tomorrow is holiday and next day is the day for which global market is waiting since past 2 weeks and till now no further development seen. US debt ceiling resolution voting on 17^th. Many other heavyweights will announce their Q2 nos. during the week –Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, HCL Technology, L&T, Ultratech, Bajaj Auto are few of them.

I see some pressure at higher levels and cautious approach ahead of important data and Q2 earnings.

Be cautious at levels 6100-6115 / 6200-6235 and nothing harm in taking precautions, max to max you will lose few rupee earning but any mishap can prevent you from big loss.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6194 – 6140/45 – 6230

S – 5840 – 5762 - 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

15 Oct – HDFC Bank, TCS

16 Oct – Bajaj Auto

17 Oct – US senate voting decision, Result HCL Tech.

21 Oct – Result – KTK Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

RIL

RIL second quarter (July-September) net profit grew 2.6 percent quarter-on-quarter (up 1.5 percent on yearly basis) to Rs 5,490 crore, supported by strengths in its petrochemical and refining businesses.

Net sales of the company rose 18.4 percent to Rs 1,03,758 crore in the September quarter, compared to Rs 87,645 crore in June quarter.

However, oil & gas EBIT grew marginally to Rs 356 crore from Rs 352 crore Q-o-Q, which was far lower than analysts’ expectations of Rs 390 crore.

So lets see whether market cheer up RIL Q2 nos or give a sell call on poor earning on Oil & Gas.

IOC –

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd has announced on Monday that subsequent to the invitation of financial bid for disinvestment of 39.99% equity shares of Haldia Petrochemicals Limited (HPL) held by West Bengal Industrial Development Corporation Limited (“WBIDC”) and 100% preference shares of Haldia Petrochemicals Limited held by WBIDC, West Bengal Industrial Infrastructure Development Corporation Limited (“WBIIDC”) and West Bengal Industrial Development Finance Corporation Limited (“WBIDFC”) being disinvested by Government of West Bengal (“GoWB”), Indian Oil Corporation Limited has been announced by the GoWB, as the selected bidder, in line with the process laid in the Request for Proposal.

ONGC –

ONGC Videsh today said that it has signed definitive agreements to acquire 12% participating interest (PI) in Block BC-10, Campos Basin, Deep Offshore Brazil as part of the sale of 35% share made by Petrobras.
ONGC Videsh had earlier acquired 15% PI in the block in 2006. The other partners in the block were Shell, Operator with 50% PI and Petrobras with 35% PI. In August 2013, Petrobras entered into a Sales Transaction with Sinochem for disposal of their 35% PI in BC-10 for USD 1543 million. This agreement was subject to Pre-emption rights of the partners Shell and ONGC Videsh. A pre-emption notice was served on 17th September 2013 by Shell and ONGC Videsh to jointly acquire 35%, in which 12% PI corresponds to ONGC Videsh.

TCS –

India's largest software services exporter Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) will declare its July-September quarter (Q2FY14) results on Tuesday evening. A CNBC-TV18 poll shows analysts on an average expecting profit after tax to rise 19.25 percent sequentially to Rs 4,527 crore in second quarter.

HDFC –

HDFC Bank will announce its July-September quarter (Q2FY14) results on Tuesday. Analysts on an average expect profit after tax to rise 26 percent on yearly basis to Rs 1,963 crore in the quarter gone by.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000 + 250 = -750 – 1250 = -2K

Open Call –

Ashokley 17.5CE @0.7 SL 0.45 TG- 18.5 in Cash

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