Morning Bells (21 Nov 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Insan do wazah se badal jata he… pehla koi khaas oosaki zindagi me aa jaye, doosara – koi khaas oosaki zindagi se chala jaye.

It was again a day of profit booking, I was too sure about this move and had issues warning on FB that till your don’t see Nifty +5 don’t consider its turning into buying mode and suggested that we may see Nifty       -65/-70 and it really worked but bad thing is that I didn’t benefit from it as in meantime Nifty gave false signals of narrow range and my thought was that it will erode option premium else I was holding 3 lots of 6200PE which I exited on average of 70 while it made high of 99.

Well, after enjoying three-days of gains, market ended with losses on Wednesday amid some strong offloading witnessed in the last hour of the trading session.

The main reason for this offloading was - Traders and investors remained cautious ahead of the US economic data and minutes of the US Fed meeting held in October.

The banking stocks were among the major laggards, followed by auto, consumer durables, oil and gas and the capital goods stocks. Only the BSE metals and small-cap index ended with marginal gains.

Diesel to deregulate –

Diesel prices will be deregulated in six months with gradual price increases, Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily said today. "In six months, diesel sector will be deregulated," he said at the KPMG Energy Conclave here.

State-owned fuel retailers, who control 95 percent of the petrol pump sales, sell diesel at government-fixed rates, which are way lower than the cost of production.

The government had in January this year allowed them to increase the price by up to 50 paisa a litre every month as part of a plan to gradually remove the subsidies given on the fuel. "Under-recoveries (losses on diesel sales) had come down to Rs 2.50 because of monthly increases but they soared to Rs 14 as rupee depreciated sharply. Currently, under-recoveries on diesel are at about Rs 9.28 per litre," Moily later told reporters.

BSE/SEBI to shift scrips to restricted group –

As a part of Surveillance measures the Exchange transfers various scrips for settlement on a Trade-to-Trade basis.

The criteria for shifting scrip’s to/fro for settlement on trade to trade basis are decided jointly by the stock exchanges in consultation with SEBI and reviewed periodically. 

The detailed criteria of shifting scrip to/from Trade-to-Trade is available on website at http://www.bseindia.com/markets/equity/EQReports/sur_Price_monitoring.aspx?expandable=5.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

We have got indication about huge sell off when last week Nifty failed to break 6300/6250 mark as for short term it was a dead end for Nifty and we see heavy sell off then again due to some newsflow it rebound. Today again we seen that is happening. If you look at the picture, banks and metals were the only reason Nifty rebound from 6050 to 6200. From both banks were really giving false signal, if you remember I am not giving any view since past one month whenever one has asked for a view, my simple answer was “I am out of trade from banking segment” today both lost its steam and market turned into heavy sell off.

I had also warned day before y’day that when I had a look to 8 years chart, it shows Nifty to remain well below of Oct. high which is 6300.

But I also stated that buying in some cyclic stock can be seen regardless of what is happening in market and you can see that instead of 80 points fall in Nifty many stocks ended in green. You just need to find out cyclic stocks and beaten down stock and need to track them on daily basis, and any uncertain day you can see a rally in those stocks.

The only thing is in favour of our market is – brokerage firms are preferring India over China but CAD and Inflation is the only worry for them.

Well once again I will remind here my old and gold range, Nifty to find base in my critical suggested range 5980-6020 while to make new high or trend changer to bullish view Nifty needs to close above 6350 for 2 successive day.

OPENING – Opening seems flat to positive as there’s nothing to come out from what Market was really worrying about it.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S –6120 – 6080- 6020 – 5980 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

OI Activity –

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Sugar Cos –

Sugar stocks rallied between 5-12 percent on hopes of resolution of the sugar crisis in the informal meeting that was scheduled today. The Finance Minister says the cabinet will take a decision next week on the sugar issue. However agriculture minister says no decision has been made yet, as the government is not in the position to give any money.

The mill owners are willing to pay Rs 225 for a quintal of sugar. The state government has advised a price of Rs 280, difference of Rs 55, the sugar business feels can be met either by way of a direct subsidy by the UP government or through several other options.

Allowing sugar mills to sell molasses to liquor industry at market prices, allowing co-generation prices of the sugar industry to be hiked, are things that the UP government will have to mull carefully.

Next week some decision will be taken by the centre and as the crushing season proceeds, with political situation building up, the future of 35 lakh farmers is at stake.

TM –

Tata Motors is reportedly planning to launch two all-new products next year. The new products, a hatchback and compact sedan will be launched  in February.

“We have planned a portfolio where we will be bringing new vehicles every year up to 2020. Next year, we will launch completely new cars,” Ranjit Yadav, president (passenger vehicle business unit), Tata Motors reported.

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -7400 + 600 (1200 Loss in NMDC, 1600 gain in Nifty PEs) = -7000

Open Call –