Morning Bells (02 Dec 13)

Morning Bells (02 Dec 13)

Good Morning Friends.

A wise person knows not only what to LOOK but also knows what to OVERLOOK.

Dec series started with hefty gains, it’s a good sign as Nifty broke trading range. However experts are divided in two parts, one believes that market may fall and some expecting new high and few are also there who believes Nifty to gain 10% from here. So lets see what store in future.

I would suggest – market is holding its levels or can say its protecting its downside levels very well, but this week will be more important as now full of Dec have lot of important data and events. I am discussing few of them here, mainly what can affect our market.

It was a Black Friday when Nifty closed above 6150 mark and sensex reached near 21000 marks. Traders and investors were in high spirits as they got some idea about slightly better than expected GDP and fiscal deficit data for Apr-Oct which was scheduled to be released later in the day.

Many important economic data are coming out this week which includes the November manufacturing and Services PMI data and major port traffic data for the month April-November will be out. Auto numbers of November too will in focus at the start of the week.

The rally was broad based, largely led by stocks sensitive to interest rates and commodity stocks.

The rally was also helped by a decline in oil prices following the Iran nuclear deal and renewed buying by domestic investors helped reverse the bearish trend.

There was short covering and buying in anticipation of a BJP-win in at least three state elections out of five, also boosted sentiment.

GDP -

Gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 4.8% in the second quarter of current fiscal. GDP grew at 4.4% in first quarter of current fiscal. Central Statistical Organization released the official GDP estimates for second quarter.

Here you need to understand GDP, Gross Domestic Product or GDP represents the economic health of a country. It presents a sum of a country's production which consists of all purchases of goods and services produced by a country and services used by individuals, firms, foreigners and the governing bodies. 

GDP consists of consumer spending, Investment expenditure, government spending and net exports hence it portrays an all inclusive picture of an economy because of which it provides an insight to investors which highlights the trend of the economy by comparing GDP levels as an index.

India's economic performance has proved to be a major disappointment in recent times, with GDP growth decelerating from above 9 % in 2010 to as low as 4.4% in the April-June quarter.

Growth data for the July-September quarter show the economy grew at 4.8 percent, better than the 4.4 percent in the first quarter but slower than the 5.2 percent a year ago.

SO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT SHOWS INDIA’S ECONOMY IS TRYING TO COMING ON TRACK AND CAN BE CONSIDERED POSITIVE FOR MARKET TIME BEING BUT FOCUS WILL REMAIN POLL RESUTLS ONLY.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

December F&O series started on strong note on signs that domestic institutions are buying once again. Metals, banks and power companies have been leading, but bouts of profit-booking is evident at peaks. Anticipation of positive news relating to opinion polls and extremely favourable global cues is boosting the market sentiment.

Here one can have a look to midcap stocks for great earnings as I don’t see good profit in large caps. One can also turn more bullish on the market if Nifty manages to breach 6,215 today for target above 6300 with small hurdle somewhere around 6250. The Nifty is now trading very close to the resistance of 6,200-6,210 and if previous stop is crossed one can expect approx 100 points upmove from here. Short-term traders can maintain a positive bias.

Most importantly remember - The best approach to trade this market has to take a day-to-day view.

OPENING – Can be flat.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6230 – 6290 – 6350

S – 6020 – 5980- 5935 (Trend Changer level 5950 for Bears and 6350 for Bulls)

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

03 Dec 13 – Power Grid OFS

04 Dec 13 – Delhi assembly election, PMI

05 Dec 13 – Beginning of Parliament’s winter session, US GDP, Nov. Auto sales No.

08 Dec 13 – State Assembly Result

17 Dec 13 – Fed meeting on 17 & 18 Dec.

18 Dec 13 – RBI Monetary Policy review, Nov Inflations, Oct Industrial output data,

Fed – Most probably it has postponed to March 14.

Santa Rally – Is on card.

OI Activity –

Buying by foreign institutional investors continued as they bought more than Rs 1,300 crore worth of shares.

Though domestic institutional investors were net sellers for the week with nearly Rs 1,000 crore of shares selling, they did buying (over Rs 300 crore) on Thursday for the first time since October 1.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

Banking Segment –

If further momentum continues then from Pvt. Banking segment Yes Bank and Axis bank to give good returns.

Power Grid –

The company aims to raise around Rs 6,690-7,083 crore at a price band of Rs 85-90 apiece through this issue that comprises of fresh issue by company and offer for sale by government of India.

MBC PL –

Nov PL = +1500 (1500 Loss in M&M, 2500 gain in IDFC) = +1500

Open Call –