Morning Bells (03 Jan 2014)

Morning Bells (03 Jan 14)

Good Morning Friends.

Life is a mixture of both Good & Bad. There’s “hell” in hello, “good” in goodbye, “lie” in believe, “over” in lover, “end” in friend, “ex” in next” and “if” in life.

After a long time it made me to write this MB because you all would be shocked with y’days sudden fall and would be thinking about now what next. So just help you all I am again writing MB today.

First you need to understand instead of recent good moves what went wrong all of sudden. If you remember I told you during the days that it could be rumour, yes, it was, look at past history, some bears are habitat to create rumours for gain in market. In second half there was some rumour political in nature and that’s market participants felt that some basket selling would have happened near the crucial 6350 levels for the Nifty. The selling was so intense that many stocks tanked more than 5% from positive.

Second reason was – if you remember I had warned you all that time being we have beard the shock of FOMC taper but Jan is the month when it will take place and that time we need to be cautious.

Experts feel that Profit booking, unwinding of long positions and build-up of shorts in major sectors like banks, capital goods, oil & gas and FMCG ahead of earnings season may have caused selling pressure.

But I feel that its also somewhere related to AAP’s victory. It doesn’t mean I am against AAP or anything I am just expressing thought that what else could have considered by big players,

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now what next? I feel if somehow Nifty get success to defend 6200 level and should close above 6230 only then market can go for range bound sessions, it is also a door knocking as Infy to kick Q3 no.s on Jan 10 and outcome could be subdued.

Nifty need to close above 6230 else it will find support around 6135 and then 6020 is last hope for bulls. On upside its proved quite a few times in recent 6330-6350 is really a crucial range.

Once again mind it, if Nifty goes below 6200 level then be a brave boy and accept your losses (in a case if you are still holding longs) and then try to manage those losses by taking some short positions. For fresh traders (who have closed all positions) can gain from shorts with SL 6230 and for TG 6135/6020.

SOME RELIEF COULD BE THERE (a very small hope)-

Today PM has press conference and some feel that he can announce some incentives to business, if yes, then market may bounce back.

OPENING –A small gap down, around 6200 mark.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 6280 – 6330 – 6357

S – 6220 - 6105 - 6020 – 5980- 5935