Morning Bells (31 Jan 14)

Morning Bells (30 Jan 14)

Good Morning Friends.

The trouble with the world is that… the stupid are full of confidence and the intelligent are full of doubts.

Royale Casino – was a perfect name for y’day. It did like that only, no would have thought that 6050CE would bounce from 1.5 to 24, TM 350CE would bounce from 0.8 to 14.

It was one of finest day for us as I was sure what’s going to happen today and it moved on expected lines. Very rare you get such opportunity when you remain confident about your trades and that was the reason we didn’t squared off CEs even they went down to almost 10% but it bounced back. Such trades called CONFIDENT TRADES, even levels were too perfect whether it was HCL Tech or TM or Nifty.

I didn’t find any call writer on board else I had so many trades on that counter.

Well, welcome to new expiry. Nothing to assure here, just have a look to some key fact which will decide further course of market direction.

Federal Reserve’s Ben Bernanke, in its last meeting as a chairman, reduced monthly bond purchases by another USD 10 billion to USD 65 billion while upgrading assessment of economy’s performance.

The market is worried because the inflow of foreign money may come down going forward as the Fed said the tapering will continue. The tapering may push foreign capital outflow from emerging markets, but that (tapering) is bullish for emerging markets, experts believe.

Some FIIs still says they are not worried about market reaction to Fed taper and emerging market slide. They expect healthy returns from emerging markets like India in 2014.

Another jolt for the market was China’s Markit/HSBC final manufacturing PMI for January that dipped to 49.5 from December's 50.5, the lowest in last six months. It highlighted that the business conditions for China's manufacturers worsened in January and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Meanwhile, the rupee closed at 62.56 against the US dollar, down 15 paise compared to previous day's closing value.

Foreign institutional investors have net sold Rs 430.20 crore worth of shares today while domestic institutional investors bought Rs 132 crore of shares, as per provisional data available on the NSE.

DAY IT WAS -

Traders and investors preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of the F&O expiry. The Fed’s also dampened the sentiment.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Now two views, as Nifty bounced from our level 6020 so we can expect Nifty to move some level of 6230 and or it may test levels 6020-5980-5940. So just take a look at market first and then decide your course of action.

But on broad basis it would remain sell on rally till it don’t turn into pre-election rally.

Till now we are in MG’s trading range -

Now resistances are 6235- 6330 – 6357 - 6415 and supports are 6235-6140/6110-6020/5980.

FINAL WORD -

As told I turned bearish on market with small trades till Nifty don’t come out of range. Also its suggesting that shorts can be taken at higher levels or say its sell on rise market. Keep SL 6141/6235 for shorts and for longs 6020/5980.

EVENT CALENDER –

27 Jan    – Q3 HUL

28 Jan    – RBI monetary review policy / Q3 – Maruti, SesaSter, JSPL, NTPC

29 Jan    - Q3 - BhartiAirtel, GAIL

30 Jan    - Q3 - HeroMoto

31 Jan    - Fiscal Deficit No. / Q3 - BHEL, IDFC, Lupin, PNB

TRADE IDEAS–

HeroMoto –

Hero Motocorop, which announced Q3 earnings after market hours, slipped 3.5 percent. The world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer reported 7.5 percent growth (year-on-year), less-than-expected, in net profit at Rs 524.6 crore in the quarter gone by, impacted by higher tax rate, raw material cost and advertisement spends.

AshokLey –

Commercial Vehicle maker Ashok Leyland on Thursday launched two new light commercial vehicles (LCVs) -- PARTNER truck and MiTR bus, an LCV bus, the latest offering from the Ashok Leyland-Nissan JV stable.

The company said it is taking efforts to expand exports and is looking to increase its footprint in the LCV segment. “The new launches will help fill the gap in product portfolio,” said V Sumantran, Vice-Chairman, Ashok Leyland.

BOI –

Public sector lender Bank of India disappointed street with the third quarter net profit falling 27 percent to Rs 586 crore on account of higher provisions. Net interest income grew 17.8 percent, slightly higher-than-expected, to Rs 2,719 crore in the quarter ended December 2013 as against Rs 2,308 crore in same quarter last year.

OPEN CALL -

Jai Hind.

Be on board. Have a profitable day.