Morning Bells (20 Sept 12)

Good Morning Friends,

Man asked GOD – “Give me everything to enjoy the life”, GOD relied- “I have given you life to enjoy everything!”

Finally it took place, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee on Tuesday withdraw its part support from UPA, then on further blame game she is sticking to her decision to pull out from the UPA government and on Wednesday said a section of channels were spreading "misinformation" and "trying to create confusion". She has also post on facebook that "If I have something new to say, then I will let you know directly. I will reiterate that we have taken a decision, which is ‘of the people, for the people and by the people’ and also pro-people. We stand by it," So now it seems there’s no scope for coalition.

Well, but seems market is ready to discount Mamta’s exit. Though I don’t see any rally as investors will adopt slightly cautious approach ahead of political uncertainty. I had strong note on further political development (on MCB & Blog on Friday) when Mamta Banerjee had started threatening to pull off support. Just reminding you key points - M3+S Pawar is the strength of UPA2, to step down Govt. it need to go out at least any 3 of them as UPA has 323 Nos in his account. Secondly Monsoon session has just finished then to bring vote of confidence call for parliament session can be in Oct. end or in Nov. only, opposition can go to President but do you think Mr. President will accept the demand to call for parliament too soon. So Govt. has enough time to bargain and bring support and that’s I had told they have played game very carefully. Starting today Govt. has thrown many Ads on news channels of their achievement in various welfare programs.

Though personally I am not convenience with Govt.’s any move on reforms & welfare programs, I think for common man and not for corporate & politician for whom these programs are big source of **** u know it very well. I had expressed my view when Govt. hiked fuel prices and FDI that market may be cheer it but I hate Govt. just an ex. Of various thought - I don’t need wallmart, why? Becoz if I will be able to save from my expenditure then only will be able to visit wallmart else how can I afford to visit a mall for shopping. Not necessary to agree with me here, but it’s my very personal thought.

So market will remain subdued and cautious and will keep keen eye on further political development.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing much to say as its clear to most of you and I do not see any good move either side yet. Well on Tuesday Market ended with marginal losses for the first time in eight trading sessions retreating from 14 month high and seem to have taken a breather after participants preferred to book some profits at the 5650 levels.

So to my view market may remain subdued today and volatile tomorrow, fresh outlook seems from Monday. So keep eye on 5550 – 5530 on down side, this is the range where market will find good support and give strength to current momentum & rally. As told on Tuesday bull will give tough fight to save 5600 mark now they can try to close Nifty above this mark.

One more sense I am feeling – market will get strength by FII as they were the only ppl who were betting on market with hope of reforms and they wont leave the battle in between and will definitely provide strong support to sustain current momentum. So either before or later market will have uptrend.

NIFTY –

Now Nifty will find resistance at 5600 & 5621 while support comes to 5555 & 5530. And as told on Tuesday close below 5550 will favour bulls next trading session.

PCR rose to 1.08 and Vix 17.83. Watch Resistance 5585 - 5600- 5621 – 5650 and Supports has come 5550 – 5530 - 5490. So close below 5550 will favour bears in next few sessions.

Market is set for a gap down opening. Around 5565, its very close to support level 5550 & resistance 5585, its possible may be it will remain in this range for today.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

FDI in Aviation –

Already expressed my view on this, keep eye on KFA, Jet & Spice.

FDI in Retail -

Sector would remain in worry as already told one of the main reasons above and that’s retail stocks off their day’s high on Moody’s comment on FDI in Retain in India - "Therefore, the credit benefit of the announcement can only be recognized when a major multi-brand retailer actually receives all regulatory approvals to invest," said in a note on Monday. (source MoneyControl.com)

Coal Blocks –

IMG has y’day again recommended for de-allocation of 3 more blocks.

Banks – I had strongly recommended SBI when it was around 1820 mark 2 weeks back. Many of you were not convenience with my view 2200 mark that time as was a big TG but its almost achieved and upmove is still intact with a bit profit booking at such a high level in 2 weeks. Well, A day after the RBI mid quarter (July-September) monetary policy announcement, India’s largest lender SBI on Tuesday slashed its base rate, by 25 basis points to 9.75%.

One can also keep eye on ICICI bank.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- Reports are not in favour of TM, either diesel or about new M&HCV's. So seems under pressure. Now Res 280 – 283 while Sup – 268 – 265. My view was to find TM somewhere around 260 lvl so lets see what hapns.

OPEN CALLS –

Cox&Kings - TG 148, SL 121 (R 133 – 139 S 129 - 127)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market is expected for correction so trade with strict SL is suggested and don’t set big TGs.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.