Morning Bells (21 Sept 12)

Good Morning Friends,

Coins always make sound, but the currency notes are always silent. So when your value increases, keep yourself calm and silent. Think it for Stock Market.

So finally congress made it smartly. But you all were combing head for further, well nothing to worry at the moment, meaning next three months or so. In this instability SP may have a reason to sort of want early polls because of their recent win in UP but Mayawati doesn’t have any such reasons. And I have already cleared you after first M, second M can make match interesting but it wont affect any harm to Govt. soon, atleast till Nov. as told y’day, yes 3^rd M will be a match lose or win affect.

The numbers as they stack up, show that with support of Mayawati the government could stay in place for a further period of time that is point one. So now possibility come to only somewhere in 2013 as Govt. can still remain in power for next 6 months even after minority.

Well now seems Govt. is all set to embark on ambitious reforms agenda despite severe political opposition.  Despite facing the heat over the hike in diesel prices and reforms now it seems govt. has decided to go ahead with some more reforms, according to FM PC’s statement. So after losing the support of TMC over the tough economic measures has decided to fast-track the disinvestment process.

Sources revealed that Govt. is likely to go ahead with insurance reforms next week and is expected that the FDI cap on insurance will be raised from 26 per cent to 49 per cent. Meanwhile, all FDI reforms announced earlier by the government have come into effect from Thursday.

PM is likely to make a statement on the diesel price hike and the reforms by the Govt. on Friday. Govt. has already cleared FDI in multi-brand retail, single-brand retail, and aviation, broadcasting and power exchanges last Friday.

Take a look on some of key reforms which Cabinet has approved last Friday - The Cabinet has allowed 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail, and permitted FDI, up to 100 per cent, in single-brand retail trading, subject to specified conditions.

Another major decision had approved FDI in aviation, allowing up to 49 per cent investment. The decision means that foreign airlines will now be allowed to invest as much as 49 per cent in the Indian carriers. However, this won't be automatic as the companies will have to get clearance from the ministry and FIPB.

But now I dont see Govt. can have courage to move forward with any further reforms after losing an ally on first attempt.

Market to remain choppy and market will remain pick-and-choose market.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market was about to recover but first EU opened lower that stopped traders from risk trade ahead of Friday and secondly news about Mulayam Singh has came out that he’s finding third front possibility and left has supported him, market extended its loss. Market recovered 15 points after closing on pending orders. (One more tool to understand here, how fast system it was which executed orders within seconds)

I personally feels there is no threat to the Govt. at the moment and therefore sentiment is likely to be positive for the market.

NIFTY –

PCR rose to 1.17 and Vix 18.62. Now resistance has come to Resistance 5585 - 5600- 5621 – 5650 and Supports has come 5550 – 5520 - 5490. So close below 5550 will favour bears in next few sessions.

Trend remain buy on dips till 5450 is not broken, it will be signal of trend changer

Opening seems flat and could be range bound till EU, so act as per momentum as its Friday, though some profit booking and unwinding has already taken place y’day but still would suggest to go for cautious approach.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

FDI in Aviation –

Company looking for FDI need get clearance from the ministry and FIPB for it. Keep eye on KFA, Jet & Spice.

FDI in Retail -

Sentiment can boost after PM’s speak today.

Infra - Finance Minister P Chidambaram has proposed single window clearance under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for infrastructure projects. Infra sector will remain in news for next few days.

Coal Blocks –

Coal India valuation seems attractive.

Banks – I see banks will perform good in near future ahead of CRR cut, drop in interest rate and festive season. One can keep eyes on SBI & ICICI bank.

DiD – Stock will remain in news & on buyers RADAR - Hindustan Copper, Oil India, Nalco, Neyveli Lignite, MMTC and Rail India Technical and Economical Services (RITES) due to IPO planning.

TM- Is very uncertain for me today. R 277 – 283 while S 266 – 261 – 256, if somehow TM falls to 256 will be good for further upswing else will remain in the range of 261-290.

Suzlon Energy - Company is into severe cash crunch, interest cost this company has not good, it paid around Rs 5 crore in the first quarter, operations have been pretty bad and there are no hopes of the operations being revived in the near future. - Rajesh Agarwal, Eastern Financiers, told CNBC TV18

OPEN CALLS –

Cox&Kings - TG 148, SL 121 (R 133 – 139 S 129 - 127)

Nifty 5700CE – bought at 10 TG – will announce SL – For risk takers,

Happy Moment – Happy to got msgs from friends that they are earning well through various cues from M Bells. Y’day people earned in SBI call & Tata Steel Call. Cheers! Keep it up.

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at MudraGuru.blogspot.in (every time to find it on single click rather than to scroll here) One can also find live calls during market hours here.

Today’s MG Mantra –

Just remember my opening quotation, mean is simple, if you have gained in market then need to have patience for next good position. Today’s gain could convert in to loss tomorrow.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.