Morning Bells (26 Oct. 12)

Good Morning Friends.

“Do not expect the circumstances to be always in your favour, because this world has not been created for you alone!”

So finally October series expired without any magic but it has given much pain specially to option traders. Many range bound sessions reduced premium tremendously.

Well as Sun rises every day with rays of new hopes, we are in New & promising series. So lets start with fresh ideas.

As per SEBI data on city-wise distribution of turnover on cash segments of BSE and NSE (National Stock Exchange) Mumbai’s contribution to the total turnover on cash segment of BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) stood at 50.19% in August 2012 against 37.4% in the fiscal 2011-12, On NSE, Mumbai’s total turnover increased to 62% in August 2012 from 60.4% in FY11-12. (Report IIFL.com)

The cabinet has approved a proposal to sell 10% stake in state-run NMDC Ltd via a share sale, Heavy Industries Minister Praful Patel told reporters.

Adani Enterprises consolidated net profit fell by 42 percent year-on-year to Rs 320 crore in the second quarter of current financial year 2012-13 due to loss in its power business. Adani Enterprises has posted net profit after tax Rs. 3202.10 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 as compared to Rs. 5526.80 mn for the quarter ended September 30, 2011.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now we are in fresh series, all eye is on RBI policy review meet on 30 Oct., while market expecting buying momentum ahead of festive seasons.

So lets start with some small trades as its Friday, first day of new series and last day of week.

The INDIA VIX on NSE surges 5% to end at 13.52 and PCR is 1.04.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Oct-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	246759	6316.63	215650	5412.74	406068	10171.95	903.89
INDEX OPTIONS	622562	17616.94	606334	17218.01	1295008	36954.01	398.93
STOCK FUTURES	293591	8429.41	318211	9160.09	960142	27932.70	-730.68
STOCK OPTIONS	35807	1106.87	34181	1055.37	3411	105.83	51.50

FII data shows the situation like y’day. FII went long in Index future while they shorted stock futures. Y’da once again Nifty failed to breach 5725, so we are still in 5640-5725 range and still we need to watch for breakout of either side before making positions. But as data shows today bulls can give a try to break 5725 & 5745 mark, as told many times buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

In the fresh series on long side Nifty 5900CE has highest OI of 31.31 Lac with fresh addition of 9.49 Lac, 6000CE has second highest OI of 29.13 Lacs with addition of 4.67. Huge addition of over 8.5 lacs see to both 6100 & 6200 calls.

On short side Nifty 5600PE OI has highest OI of 39.19 Lacs with addition of 8 Lacs. So as told initially again we are in small range unless things changed.

Now Resistance comes to 5725 - 5737 – 5754 and Supports comes to 5687 – 5670 - 5654.

Now trend remain buy on dips till 5654 is not broken out.

Opening again seems slightly on positive bias. Vix is fell down so be cautious.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

My top pick for next 3 months are – Cement, Infra & Banks – yes not blindly to any stock, in select good stocks only.

Realty Sector –

Is set to move big after expiry ahead of festive season. It seems good bet. DB Realty & Oberoi Realty.

Steel Sector –

Steel seems under pressure. JSPL seems under pressure.

Infra Sector –

IRB and Reliance Infra will remain under pressure.

Power Sector –

For slow but steady gain is seen. Keep eye for Mid to Long term bet.

Banks Sector –

Bank will follow trend, and further show strength in later part.

IT Sector –

Remain under pressure.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Omkar Chemicals – Bought @102 for TG 115 SL 83

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

Today’s MG Mantra –

Its fresh series so just enjoy the first day. Vix is fell down which showing weakness as Nifty also seems in overbought zone. Watch for breakout of either 5654 or 5745.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those who don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.