Morning Bells (12 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Y’day my son Devansh had told me something very strange but later I realized it was very much True and is truth of life.

A man interviewed to GOD and asked what difference you find in old days wishes and today’s wishes, God replied quietly that – earlier people wanted health, now a days people asked first to grow quick as they don’t want bound to parents instruction, when they grown up and face life’s truth, they always wish – Mujhe Luta do Mere Bachpan Ke Din (please give me my old days). Later they lost their health to achieve wealth, and when they got wealth they lost wealth to gain their health.

So now it’s time to look ahead, major calendar days have gone off, Sky Rocket on Diwali funda has gone away and has given sleepless nights to few traders. I think I tried to convey this message repeatedly to sit on cash will be good, nothing wrong if we can wait and watch till clear indication.

Well market fell down 50 points on Friday as investors appeared to be worried about how Obama will deal with or avoid the ‘fiscal cliff.’ Interest rates were left unchanged by ECB and Mario Draghi sounded that economic activity in the eurozone would remain weak in the near term.

Remember its very short trading week, and we have festive season Diwali ahead. Well market seems to remain volatile on this festive season, with the release of industrial output data and inflation figures in the truncated week amid tepid global sentiments. Also we all need to keep eye on how the US government is going to tackle the tax issues.

There would be a special trading session - "Muhurat", would be conducted between 15.45 hrs and 17.00 hrs.

Overall sentiment could be a bit better ahead of Deepawali but global financial woes and "fiscal-cliff" of the US issues is likely to dominate sentiments. Well now its time for market to look forward to Parliament’s winter sessions and to wait for further steps from Govt to boost the sentiment and steps to reduce fiscal deficit.

PM Mr. Singh has declared that Govt. will soon announce steps to stave off investors' fears ensuing from measures like anti-tax avoidance rule and retrospective amendments and hinted at a fast track mechanism to speed up clearance of infrastructure projects. He’s also pointed out that the Cabinet has approved changes in the banking and insurance laws and also a new pension law, with higher FDI limits, he’s told that "It will be our endeavour to have them passed by Parliament as soon as possible. They will make our financial system more able to support growth."

Two major companies DLF and Jaiprakash Associates will declare results on Monday.

Inflation figure is scheduled to announce on November 14, if it come a bit lower then it is going to be taken in a very positive note by the market but as most of expert are expecting that chances are very low and markets are likely to be under pressure.

Another interesting research report - Indian economy is set to expand at the world's fastest rate over the next 50 years to emerge as a major force globally, but it would still rank as the second worst in terms of prosperity of its citizens.

Over the 50-year period between 2011-2060, India will register an annual economic growth rate of 4.9 per cent, as per a latest report by Paris-based international grouping of the world's leading economies, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (MoneyControl.com)

Meaning is simple if one can understand – the corrupt system will be continue, it will bring prosperity for corporate and not for its citizens while India’s GPS is growth will be 7 fold in this period, according to research team. Strange but we need to believe that it could be happened.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As told market may remain volatile and in under pressure. So best strategy is to sit on cash if you are not feeling comfortable, or trade in select scrip.

Please watch for following levels - 5685 - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630. If 5580 breakdown, there're I think 4 Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 by filling the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash.

Above all just a word of caution - once Nifty makes new high, we should be careful with FII, as first they fueled our mkt with cash and then with a silly reason they go away with cash at least once in a year, so just keep this also in mind. I dont see it too early may be around March/April +/- 2 months or just right now.

I am talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, if and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 1% and end at 14.37 and F&O PCR is 0.80.

Opening could be surprising, may be a quick green move after a small dip.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 8 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	44299	1235.11	55615	1518.86	439783	11106.89	-283.75
INDEX OPTIONS	508683	14500.63	492888	14077.58	1868860	53150.32	423.05
STOCK FUTURES	40319	1130.94	55148	1503.50	1094747	29846.83	-372.56
STOCK OPTIONS	96167	2650.35	97309	2679.21	92949	2567.49	-28.86

OI in Index future decreased by 3012 contracts and FII sold 11,316 contracts in Index Future i.e. FII have taken short positions in Nifty & Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Seems ahead of Diwali bull are so bullish to see Nifty at 6000 this series. Well 6000CE has highest OI on cost of 3.5 then 5800CE & 5900CE have almost equal OI of 77 & 76 lacs. On short side 5600PE has highest OI of 73.87 lacs. Huge 13.91 fresh addition to 5800CE gives signal that bull will try to take Nifty around/above 5800 mark while 8.96 Lacs fresh addition to 5500PE sensing that bears are also gearing up to give bull big fight.

Resistance comes to 5732 - 5779 – 5806 and Supports comes to 5658 - 5631 – 5584. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625 & 5580, can lead to 5550-5500, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5779 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Nifty seems to open flat and then will take further move.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Infra Sector –

Lanco Infratech - has posted a net loss of Rs 136 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2012, while its revenues rose.

NCC - Consolidated profits after minority taxes of another infra major NCC Ltd declined by 62 per cent to Rs 11.35 crore for the quarter ended September 30, while its revenues increased.

GVK Power and Infrastructure - reported net loss of Rs 43.66 crore for period under review mainly due to interest burden and shortage of gas supply to the group's power projects.

GVK holds the unique distinction of managing and operating two of India's busiest airports, the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA) in Mumbai and the Bengaluru International Airport in Bangalore. 

Adding another feather to its cap, GVK has signed an operations and management contract with The Airports Authority of Indonesia, (Angkasa Pura Airports API), the Indonesian government airport operator to manage the non-aeronautical commercial operations at Indonesia's second busiest Bali (Denpasar) International Airport.

The scope includes both, the existing terminals and the new international terminal which is currently under construction and is expected to open in the third quarter of 2013 with a major make-over.

Tata Motors –

TM is also planning to launch 7-8 new products/variants on its highly successful Ace mini truck platform, Ravi Pisharody, ED - commercial vehicles, said on Thursday.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Note – Remember as told market may open lower today and we need to take advantage of that for good level entry into stocks.

Hindalco – CMP 117.7 TG - Not beyond 122 SL NA, R 119 – 120 – 122 S 116 – 114.5 – 113.5

(Result factor is already priced in and do not have potential for a good move right from here, it will strong resistance at 121 & 122, if it crosses 122 then 125-126 is the point from where it may have correction. So I would prefer to wait for right time to go short.)

Hindalco hit our last support which was the point to book profit in your shorts. Call closed now.

Dishman Pharma – CMP 98.7 TG seems - 108 SL 91, R 100 – 101.5 – 103 S 97 – 95 – 94

Today’s MG Mantra –

Ahead of festive session market can show strength for 2 days, so be careful with fresh longs, overall global sentiment are not good. Make small profits and sit on cash till inflation figure will be good idea.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.