Morning Bells (16 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Success is like a beautiful lover, it can leave us at any time but failure is like a mother, it teaches us important message of life at every failure attempt.

So market just reacted as per expected lines, had informed opening could be 30+ dip and then 20+/- range i.e. then Nifty will remain in this range and same has happened. We also hold our strong support 5630 on closing basis.

Today’s fall was mainly due to sharp overnight losses in the US markets amid worries of the U.S. “fiscal cliff” of potential tax hikes and spending cuts. Whole global market witnessed weakness today.

Well, Petrol prices have been cut by 95 paisa a litre effective midnight exclusive of taxes.

Reliance Industries got nod from Upstream Oil regulator DGH to drill a well as part of the USD 1.529 billion plan to develop four satellite gas fields around KG-D6 block.

Software giant Microsoft Corp has announced major change its leadership, according to reports. Reports stated that Windows chief Steven Sinofsky has resigned after launching the new Windows 8 operating system.

India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a slower-than-expected 7.45 percent in October analysts expectation were of 7.96 percent.

Industrial production unexpectedly shrank an annual 0.4 percent in September, compared with a forecast of a rise of 2.8 percent of experts.

India's annual consumer price inflation rose in October to 9.75 percent, government data showed.

Now market will look for winter session of parliament and is eying on RBI to cut in interest rate in Jan 13, there are high chances that RBI can cut interest rate in Jan. and to my personal view Dec. can be a disappointing months in view of RBI Monitory policy.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Now its time to keep eye on ongoing fiscal cliff, so next Nifty take is depend on further development. Remember market in trading range (yeah a bit weakened) till our strong support zones are not broken down. If Nifty breaks 5580 on closing basis or with good volume then it would time to create some short positions.

Please watch for following levels - 5650 - 5630 - 5580 - 5450, so most probably we are holding 5650-5630. If 5580 breakdown, there're few Gaps are pending which can drag Nifty to 5450 to fill the gaps, and FII will prefer to sit on cash. I am talking in the sense 5580 to 5450, if and 5450 is broken then another 150+ points is quite possible or even more.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4% and end at 15.53 and F&O PCR is 0.82.

Opening seems subdued & a bit under pressure and then I see Nifty will remain range bound till EU opening.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	39271	1067.70	87888	2329.03	368768	9166.01	-1261.33
INDEX OPTIONS	452365	12744.19	452716	12797.48	1861747	52458.34	-53.29
STOCK FUTURES	46834	1357.25	61412	1679.14	1095626	29877.65	-321.89
STOCK OPTIONS	50530	1377.84	49462	1359.45	93347	2566.04	18.39

FII data is not very exciting now and showing weakness may be they have preferred to sit on cash ahead of Fiscal Cliff development. We can clearly see huge fall in OI in Index future which is decreased by 60,905 contracts and while they sold 48,617 contracts in Index Future.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty seems to developing trading range of 5500-5600-5900, Huge unwinding seen in Nifty Puts and Calls except good addition to 5700CE fresh addition of 16.89 lac & 5800CE fresh addition of 9.19Lacs. 5800CE has highest OI while on short side 5600PE has highest OI of 77.65 Lacs.

If you study (even can do on blog, refer old posts) its just a reverse case of Oct. series, in Oct. there were huge addition we had seen to 5400PE, 5500PE and 5600PE, just reverse we can see to 5800CE, 5900CE & 6000CE, it’s a method of ceiling i.e. to cap upside or downside, to now it would be interesting to see how Nifty is going to take these actions.

Resistance comes to 5653 - 5676 – 5702 and Supports comes to 5605 - 5580 – 5558. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5730 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625 & 5580, can lead to 5550-5500, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5779 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening seems subdued and under pressure. Nifty may remain range bound till EU opening.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Media Sector –

Digitization fuelled media sector, y’day we have witnessed good move in media stock, they will be on run for time being.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Dishman Pharma – Bought 98.7 TG short term booked profit at 108 SL 91, mid-term TG is 130 (Call was initiated by Venkata)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Intraday is best suitable or wait for EU cue is good. Don’t try your luck against market sentiment.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.