Good Morning Friends.
People want to see
you doing well but not better than them.
Market fell down around 75 points on Friday in last
45 minutes, it was just scheduled, first market shown some resilience and once
again it turned worried around closing.
Global situation are supportive at the moment and
one need to be careful with longs. The biggest worry with US fiscal cliff,
though its not leading US towards recession but most of experts expect that it
will slow its economy but make it strong by reducing Deficit.
News from Middle East is also a bit of worry, they engaged
in fight and there were news of ground offensive in Gaza by Israel. This can
lead to a war situation, driving CRUDE prices up.
Also International atomic regulator said that the
nuclear projects of Iran are more than civilian purpose, this can also create
some tension in near future, and this will also drive Crude volatility.
Coming on home ground - Industrial output continues
to sluggish, inflation remains high, and the current account deficit has
widened further. So far in November, FIIs have net bought shares worth Rs 3348
crore, compared to average monthly purchases of Rs 12,500 crore since July.
So FII
data also shown that either investors are cautious and slowdown the foreign
fund inflows which indicates that frontline shares are now either fairly valued
or even expensive.
So Monday seems a bit down and then may remain under
pressure, now only hopes on Parliament session,
which is only hope but it also seems unpredictable. I personally feel market
can remain in tight range in next 2-3 days and Thursday will decide further
move. Better to avoid aggressive longs and do not enter in market purely on
technical. First day of Parliament’s winter session will decide the mood of
market, so till market may hold or can wait but if winter session’s first day
start with same attitude as last one then surely market will have a sharp
decline.
Middle East war won’t affect our market much but
yes it will create some pressure in terms of Fiscal Cliff of India, we are
major importers, so OMCs are short and this the single reason will be enough to
put mkt under pressure.
Now market will look for winter session of
parliament and is eying on RBI to cut in interest rate in Jan 13, there are
high chances that RBI can cut interest rate in Jan. and to my personal view
Dec. can be a disappointing months in view of RBI Monitory policy.
The Winter Session begins on Nov 22 and the Congress leaders are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a smooth sailing. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is approaching various political parties for helping the passage of important economic bills.
The Winter Session begins on Nov 22 and the Congress leaders are leaving no stone unturned to ensure a smooth sailing. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the government is approaching various political parties for helping the passage of important economic bills.
MARKET OUTLOOK –
Now worry is that there was a band of support
between 5580 and 5630 and that band of support broken down decisively on
Friday. Now we can say a little hope is only with 5537 else there is nothing to
hold the Nifty till 5450 - 5400. So, if parliament sessions start on weak cues
or with dreadlock then it is quite possible that in coming day we may see a
free fall because there is no technical support anywhere till 5450-5400. So do
not try to buy and catch falling knife, step aside or remain short or with
hedge strategy.
2 days should be watch out closely this week,
first today i.e. Monday as today’s move decide till winter sessions i.e. either
hold or fall and next first day of parliament winter session.
Remember next week we have another holiday on
GuruNanak Jayanti on Wednesday 28th.
The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 4.44%
and end at 16.22 and F&O PCR is 0.92.
Opening seems subdued & a bit under
pressure and then I see Nifty will remain range bound till EU opening.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 16 Nov 2012
|
|||||||
BUY
|
SELL
|
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
|
Difference
|
||||
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
||
INDEX
FUTURES
|
37104
|
1026.44
|
64647
|
1752.26
|
338053
|
8207.35
|
-725.82
|
INDEX
OPTIONS
|
521977
|
14596.59
|
467350
|
13107.92
|
1869440
|
52132.53
|
1488.67
|
STOCK
FUTURES
|
58171
|
1608.50
|
49219
|
1330.79
|
1095512
|
29386.50
|
277.71
|
STOCK
OPTIONS
|
66604
|
1820.26
|
70855
|
1940.40
|
99180
|
2671.15
|
-120.15
|
As per FII data on Thursday OI was decreased
by 60,905 contracts and they had sold 48,617 contracts in Index Future. On
Friday they sold 27543 contracts in Index future and once again OI decreased by
30715. So FII have booked profit on their shorts.
NIFTY
OUTLOOK –
Told many times Nifty seems to developing a trading
range 5500-5900, now seems upside can be shifted to 5800 or 5700, lets see in
coming week. Profit booking seen in Nifty short options while 12.94 lacs share
added to 5700CE with total OI of 81.21 Lacs. 5800CE has highest OI of 94.96
Lacs.
Resistance comes to 5590 - 5629 - 5679 and
Supports comes to 5554 - 5537 – 5503 -5548.
Trend deciding levels are, on downside
keep eye on 5537, breakdown on closing basis or in decisive way can lead to 5448
-5400, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5679 and can lead to
5800-5830.
Opening seems subdued and under
pressure. Nifty may remain range bound till EU opening.
STOCK
OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)
Media Sector –
Digitization fuelled media sector, y’day we
have witnessed good move in media stock, they will be on run for time being.
OPEN
CALLS –
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows
strength.
Dish
TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72
DB
Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107
Dishman
- @118 for TG 130+ SL 107
Jindal
Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126
Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock
Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in
View
On Public Demand –
With receiving lot of request but you all know
I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and
small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take
my view as my very personal view.
Dishman
Pharma – Bought 98.7 TG short term booked
profit at 108 SL 91, mid-term TG is 130 (Call was initiated by Venkata)
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Intraday is best suitable or wait for EU cue
is good. Don’t try your luck against market sentiment.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer –
1. I
have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to
make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial
advisor.
2. Those that don’t have patience and
are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.
Good morning sirji. Have a wonderful day.
ReplyDeleteHello sir ,
ReplyDeleteToday woke up thinking to make short positions , and now the global mkts are positive . Amazing controversy .
Ok will wait till a rise in mkt .
Auto showing strength.
Waiting for hero to perform.
Thank you.
As expecting 5554 then 5530-37 had good support, even 5470-5500 is good band,So probably we are not going to see any big downside in this series. A sudden spike is on card and then profit booking at higher level is also on card.
ReplyDeleteDon do you remember Cera?? today its reached 401, when we had discussion it was around 370, arpx 10% gain in 2 week.
ReplyDeleteYes , it went up even when madcap index remained negative.
ReplyDeleteEuropean futures +ve
ReplyDeleteYes , since EURO is little in asian trades , EU mkts will remain green & give support to our mkts .
DeleteBut midcap & smallcap index down more than 1 % .
EU opening will give chance to exit longs or make fresh shorts.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteIs anyone tracking L&T?. What is the target for this Nov series. Any chance to reach Rs.1700.
LNT is also in downtrend, rate sensitive stock will see some pressure till expiry.
DeleteMg sir,
ReplyDeleteIs it good time to enter tcs..??
I exited tcs @1335
Wait till US development, mkt is also seems in downtrend.
DeleteThanks sir....
DeleteMG sir i have got tv18broadcst @ 35rs do you think it can go back to that level again in 4 to 5 trading seasons
ReplyDeleteyou exactly bought around profit booking level, mkt is volatile so seems difficult in 2-3 sessions, but yes in short - mid term you can get good return. say around March 13 all media stocks will see their new high.
Delete