Morning Bells (23 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Thought of the day - Short but very true – Your Nature is Your Future.

So finally bulls gave attempt to 5630-35 twice but failed to sustain and closed just below its strong resistance because this rally was more of short cover. Some buying in the Capital Goods, IT, Telecom and the FMCG stocks helped the Nifty to close above the 5600 level for second straight trading session.

Now once again match is excited, once again today we are in same situation like y’da with a bit difference that today is Friday and most of time it support bears.

So we are again in the range of 5537 – 5554 – 5630 - 5650. Meaning is simple shorts can be hold with SL of 5650, while selective longs can be hold with SL of 5537 on closing or decisive mode.

Well as expected both house were adjourned. Opposition calls for vote on FDI, TMC for no confidence in Govt. and Shiv Sena leaders want their late leader Bal Thackeray to be duly honoured in Parliament. No-confidence vote fell down due to insufficient members’ support. The same is also expecting today but Govt. is working on its agenda and hope next week onward we can have something meaningful.

Now market is more worried about the decision on FDI, we it got some breather as No-confidence vote fell down but still there are lot of hurdles and specially BJP will not allow the House to function unless and until they have voting. So first week of this winter session is going to be dull.

Still market is in selective buying mode i.e. investors are preferring buy in selective scrip. Parliament’s winter session has taken place so one need to opt cautious approach as market will react on proceeding.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

No change in Outlook, so as suggested don’t excite by seeing Nifty above 5600. We are still in same situation like y’day, i.e. Bear may give an attempt to drag Nifty below 5600 mark while Bulls are finding a bit tough to drive Nifty upside. Reason is also simple money stops coming into the market, so overall no positive triggers are seen for the market for next one week. One can expect mild weakness to come into the market.

Market remains in a range with a bit volatility. We are still in range of 5554 – 5630/5650 and all are waiting for breakout/breakdown for further direction.

Better to avoid aggressive longs and do not enter in market purely on technical. Now today second half of Parliament’s winter session will decide the mood of market.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 3.5% and end at 14.91 and F&O PCR is 0.89.

The Rupee gained 0.18 to 55.21/USD.

Opening seems flat and under pressure.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	41746	1152.46	42787	1188.75	348473	8682.52	-36.29
INDEX OPTIONS	388121	10916.63	385756	10838.07	1910570	53799.97	78.56
STOCK FUTURES	79794	2209.29	82507	2269.97	1124651	30130.68	-60.67
STOCK OPTIONS	54870	1495.27	55560	1513.19	104473	2832.91	-17.92

FII sold 1041 contacts while OI increased by 12,953 contacts so FII have made positions in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5554/5537, breakdown on closing basis or in decisive way can lead to 5448 -5400, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5630 & 5679 and can lead to 5730.

There are high chances to expire Nov series range bound, may somewhere between 5600 – 5700.

Resistance comes to 5644 - 5664 - 5680 and Supports comes to 5609 - 5590 – 5573.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Realty Sector & Infta –

Change in long term outlook - The real estate sector will continue to remain an attractive investment destination with the possibility of prices in residential areas appreciating by 91 to 145 per cent in select cities over the next five years, according to report prepared by Knight Frank.

Keep eye on DB Realty, Peninsula Land & Anant Raj Industries.

Telecom Sector –

Telecom stocks are slowly creeping back into the game. These beaten-down stocks have gained significantly in the last month. BhartiAirtel gained most while Reliance infra increasing significantly.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126

SBI 2100CE - @33 for TG 55+ SL 23

Today’s MG Mantra –

Cautious approach and strict SL in second half.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.