Morning Bells (27 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

The best words in which one should believe and should read every morning, then definitely he can achieve his dream – “I will win… not immediately… but definitely”.

So another day in parliament passed and market was just waiting for clue. Still there’s no clarity on FDI, Govt. agreed for discussion in parliament but if you aware about my statement few days back (before winter session start) I had informed that Govt. has settle its magic no. and this time they will come for discussion though it was scheduled to discuss at the end of session but due to logjam may be has congress come up with FDI on Monday. Still great party BJP is not ready as expressed earlier they don’t have choice, they have feared that Govt. will approve other bills and then will comeup with manifesto in the election so BJP has no choice than just to create logjam.

Govt. is ready to discuss the FDI in retail issue but does not want it to be put to vote. Today UPA has its core committee meeting in which they will decide further move. Meanwhile when news came out about SP will not participant in FDI voting, retail stocks started moving up and when parliament adjourned for next day and BSP supremo Mayavati told media that “FDI should discuss in parliament” stocks lost their day high.

RIL, Wipro, Infosys, Coal India, Tata Power, SBI, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddys Lab, Sesa Goa, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Hindalco Inds, ITC were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty while ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, HDFC, NTPC, Maruti Suzuki, BPCL, M&M, BHEL and GAIL were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Now to my personal view there are two options – First Govt. can go ahead (if they will confirm magic no.) with FDI discussion and voting, SP & BSP will remain absence during the vote. If it get approve then market will cheers the victory and will shoot around 100+ point rally, if not then most of it is already priced in and market may face decline say around 50+ point.

Second Govt. can sacrifice FDI by putting off the table and can go ahead with further important bills, the result will remain same, a decline for 50+ point or say we can see around 5548.

Another development has seen in FDI which is – Sources says Trinamool Congress, one of the staunchest opponents of retail FDI, in their all-party meeting had said that the party is ready for discussions. The discussions could be under any rule, which means that TMC is not insisting on voting. Trinamool is saying "let us have discussion, even if it is section under 192 or 184". SP also maintain similar stance. (MoneyControl.com)

Mr. Ravi Narain is presently on the Board of NSE as Managing Director & CEO and his current tenure will end on March 31, 2013. The Board at its meeting today approved the appointment of Ms. Chitra Ramkrishna as MD and CEO (Designate). Ms. Chitra Ramkrishna will take charge as Managing Director & CEO with effect from April 1, 2013 for a period of five years.

Belying the hope of a recovery in industrial performance against the backdrop of the slew of economic reforms recently announced by the government, the CII ASCON survey has indicated greater percentage of sectors reporting slow to negative growth in October-December quarter of current year over the corresponding period of last year.

The Survey, which tracks the growth of industrial sector of the economy on quarterly basis through feedback received from sectoral industry associations, shows that out of 101 sectors, only 23% predict ‘excellent’ to ‘high’ growth in Oct-Dec quarter this year, down from 34% in the same quarter last year. (Reports – IIFL.com)

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market will remain in a no trade zone till the policy logjam over FDI is sorted by the Govt. Market is eagerly expecting that there will be some sort of a positive outcome and till that is cleared, we many see range bound and under pressure sessions. Upside & downside both seems in tight range say 100 point range with a bit volatility as its part. Nifty range seems 5548/5585 to 5715/25.

The INDIA VIX on NSE remains unchanged and ended at 14.67 and F&O PCR is 0.87.

The rupee extends fall to trade at 55.81-55.82 versus its previous close of 55.5350-55.5450, after hitting 55.82, a level last seen on September 6, on strong dollar demand from oil refiners.

A small gap-up is there as all global market ended higher, also S&P seen sharp recovery and closed above 1400 Mark which is itself positive mark for global market.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 26 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	74532	2088.67	68626	1926.81	372023	9361.53	161.85
INDEX OPTIONS	327135	9219.94	346975	9799.96	1870402	52730.38	-580.02
STOCK FUTURES	354540	9395.85	353431	9422.96	1175574	31824.20	-27.11
STOCK OPTIONS	44290	1190.10	44163	1201.75	97549	2663.54	-11.66

Today we have seen good buying on FII front in terms of No. of contracts, FII bought 5906 contacts worth Rs. 161.85 Cr. with OI increased by 16,920 contacts.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Still it seems that Nifty will remain in tight range ahead of expiry and parliament logjam. Secondly Foreign investors are looking for parliament proceeding and that’s money inflow into market is slow.

Nifty has gap above 5600 which is 5651-5666. Nifty will face strong resistance in the range of 5652-5672.

Now there are high chances for high volatility in trio sessions and its also likely that Nifty will remain in the range of 5548/5585 to 5715/25.

As told last week there are high chances to expire Nov series range bound, may somewhere between 5600 – 5700, there are very less chances to test 5550 for this expiry say 20% to 30%. Better to avoid OTM options as reducing premium will put you into loss. It could be good idea to sell OTM options.

Resistance comes to 5648 - 5661 – 5674 - 5701 - 5725 and Supports comes to 5623 - 5610 - 5597 – 5548.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Realty Sector & Infta –

Change in long term outlook - The real estate sector will continue to remain an attractive investment destination with the possibility of prices in residential areas appreciating by 91 to 145 per cent in select cities over the next five years, according to report prepared by Knight Frank.

Keep eye on DB Realty, Peninsula Land & Anant Raj Industries.

Coal & Minings –

Sesa Goa - Reports are not in favour of Vedanta group firm Sesa Goa today said it may have to resort to imports of iron ore for feeding its 6.25 lakh tonnes pig iron plant in Goa due to a mining ban in the state. Incidentally, Sesa Goa is the largest domestic iron ore miner and had sold 16 million tonnes of iron ore in 2011-12.

However, since the imposition of mining ban in Goa in September this year, its production has come to naught. The Goa Government had ordered a temporary suspension on extraction of ore across the state on September 11, pending verification of various approval documents in view of the findings of Justice M B Shah Commission on illegal mining.

On 5 October 2012, the Supreme Court ordered a suspension on mining activities in Goa, including transportation of mined ore from mines or stockyards and asked the Central Empowered Committee to file a preliminary report in four weeks

The company is now hoping to get an approval to resume its operations in Karnakata, where rehabilitation and reclamation plan for its mine at a reduced capacity of 2.29 MT has been approved by the CEC.

So a tough time seems ahead for Sesa Goa. My personal suggestion is to stay away from scrip till clarity on issue or don’t carry your trades for short to mid term.

Telecom Sector –

Telecom stocks are slowly creeping back into the game. These beaten-down stocks have gained significantly in the last month. BhartiAirtel gained most while Reliance infra increasing significantly.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

KP IT - @127 for TG 140+ SL 117

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126 (126 on closing basis, volatility SL 123)

Today’s Pick (Intraday to 1-2 sessions) –

I am trying to start this section but range bound session is not permitting. So today just giving you small details, from next day we will have calls with details.

Today keep eye on

1.      Reliance Infra – chances to move up

2.      Pantaloon – under pressure to upmove

3.      Spice Jet – hold to upmove

Today’s MG Mantra –

Enjoy the volatility.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.