Morning Bells (30 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Everything is EASY when we are crazy about it and nothing is easy when we are LAZY about it.

Whoaa, 180+ points in just days, looks it was wild bull move. Yes it was closed just around our resistance and if you remember we had discussed that Nifty was in 5600-5800 Range for Nov. series and it expired as per expectations.

Well we are in Dec series which seems with full of promise and I guess we will have great earnings opportunity in Dec & Jan series. So be online during market hours to catch the bus.

long rollovers in the high beta sectors like Real Estate, Infra and Auto and the defensive Pharma stocks lifted the markets to hit the highest level in the calendar year 2012, While, some heavy short covering in the Banking sector towards the fag end of the session saw the NSE Nifty close above the 5800 mark for the first time in the year 2012.

Today’s noteworthy rally was seen on the back of life time high turnover over 3.92 lakh crores turnover was registered on the bourses.

Moody's said the stable outlook on the country's Baa3 rating was based on its structural strengths of a high household savings rate and relatively competitive private sector, which could help raise growth in coming years.

The Economic Times reports that RBI has rejected the request of banks that they be allowed to restructure real estate loans without providing for likely losses if the loans go bad. A loan is said to be restructured when the original terms of the agreement (interest rates, tenure) are diluted to enable troubled borrowers repay loans. This also helps banks recover to recover a good chunk of the funds they have lent.

This RBI move is welcome for two reasons. One, home prices could soften (or at least the steep rate of climb could be arrested) as banks put pressure on property developers to repay loans. This in turn could force builders to push up sales by dropping prices if need be. Second and more important, by bringing greedy realtors to heel, the RBI may also be able to rein in a key contributor to inflation: soaring property prices. (MoneyControl.com)

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Consistent high FII inflows and an upbeat government mood have boosted and strengthened market sentiment. Here onward I see tomorrow may be subdued session and now investors will wait for FDI discussion in parliament for next cue.

Here I would like to point out that Rupee is not appreciating as much as we have seen rally in stock market, there was no strength in the rupee. Today was the first day when the rupee has slightly appreciated and that appreciation was necessary because the foreign institutional investors (FII) inflows are not that large and FIIs could be just hedging in the futures market.

So here onward now we need to see whether this rupee appreciation and FII buying would continue or not.

In the last two decades, the last month of the year has generated returns between 0.7% and 15.7%, which has given birth to the December phenomenon theory. Only four times in the last 20 years -1994, 2000, 2001 and 2011 - December has generated negative returns, states a recent Morgan Stanley report.

The INDIA VIX on NSE surged 10% and ended at 15.37 and F&O PCR is 0.94.

The rupee gained a bit and traded at 54.84 against 55.45 a day earlier.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 29 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	235304	6819.98	154479	4473.59	331495	9701.83	2346.39
INDEX OPTIONS	553503	15966.50	525646	15144.04	1220250	35545.55	822.46
STOCK FUTURES	370042	10385.20	387528	10901.58	1047002	29279.39	-516.38
STOCK OPTIONS	38607	1050.39	35427	957.55	1943	53.09	92.84

FII bought 80,825 contracts worth Rs. 2346.39 Cr. and OI decreased by 1,36,015 contacts in Index Futures. FII went long in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

So finally we closed above 5800 mark in 2012 for the first time. Now bears that were doing efforts for ceiling 5800, but now that has gone to 6000 mark. Now Nifty is in range of 5500-6000 as per what data on opening day shows.

Be cautious with Nifty at this point as a long awaited correction is on card but first Nifty can attempt to 5900 mark before that.

Nifty Critical supports are 5548 - 5666 - 5692 - 5733. Here 5666 is Alarm and 5548 is trend changer.

Resistance comes to 5860 - 5895 – 5957 and Supports comes to 5798 - 5762 - 5700 – 5665. 

Till next week Nifty seems in the range of 5750 to 5950.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Coal & Mining –

Sesa Goa -

Shares of NRI billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Sesa Goa  jumped a 7-8 percent ahead of the Central Empowered Committee (CEC) report on allegations of illegal mining in Goa tomorrow.

Sesa Goa's investors are hoping that there would be some kind of good news . Now good news can come in two forms. 1) A partial withdrawal on the mining ban in Goa or 2) there can also be a resumption of the transportation of iron ore that they already have. In September 2012, there was a complete blanket mining ban in Goa. Sesa Goa has already been suffering as their Karnataka operations have come to a standstill for the past 15 months. The company was dependent on its Goa operations over the past 15 months.

PVR – Cinemax Deal -

The Board of Directors of PVR Limited (PVR) y’day announced that it has entered into Definitive Agreements to acquire 69.27% stake in Cinemax India Limited (Cinemax), a Kanakia Group entity that operates movie exhibition business in India.

PVR currently has 46 operational properties, with 213 screens. This acquisition is being carried out through its wholly owned subsidiary, Cine Hospitality Pvt. Ltd. (CHPL). CHPL would be acquiring 69.27% stake owned by the promoter group of Cinemax at a price of Rs 203.65 for an all cash consideration of Rs 395 crores. The acquisition shall be followed by an open offer to the public shareholders of Cinemax India Limited for an additional 26% stake for cash, as per SEBI takeover regulations.

Jet Airways -

The much talked about Jet-Airways-Etihad  deal may be structured in two tranches and will be signed within three months, exclusive sources told CNBC-TV18.  The deal is still at a due diligence stage, it is learnt. 

Jet Air and Etihad have not confirmed the stake sale news but sources say, the deal may be a combination of fresh issue and secondary sale of shares.

Promoter Naresh Goyal is likely to sell 15% directly in first tranche and Etihad will increase its stake further via a fresh issue. . Etihad is likely to hold up 23-24% stake post the completion of the deal since the Middle East-based carrier is not eyeing a majority stake in company.

Proceeds of the stake sale will be used to retire Rs 12,000 crore debt, Jet has on its books.

Apollo Hospitals Enterprises -

CLSA Capital Partners, the alternate investment arm of the Hong Kong-based brokerage firm, is selling its 6.15 percent stake in India's Apollo Hospitals Enterprises

Realty Sector & Infta –

Change in long term outlook - The real estate sector will continue to remain an attractive investment destination with the possibility of prices in residential areas appreciating by 91 to 145 per cent in select cities over the next five years, according to report prepared by Knight Frank.

Keep eye on DB Realty, Peninsula Land & Anant Raj Industries.

GMR Infra –

Maldives Govt. has terminated the USD 500 million GMR airport project. GMR along with its Malaysian partner Malaysia Airport Holding Berhad, had won the contract for developing the Male International Airport during Nasheed's regime and it was the biggest single FDI into Maldives.

Telecom Sector –

Telecom stocks are slowly creeping back into the game. These beaten-down stocks have gained significantly in the last month. BhartiAirtel gained most while Reliance infra increasing significantly.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

KP IT - @127 for TG 140+ SL 117

Dish TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72

DB Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126 (126 on closing basis, volatility SL 123)

Nifty Call Spread on 29 Nov 12 – 2 lot of each 5800PE @ 10 – SL hit @ 4, booked loss of 600/-, 5800CE @ 10 – Booked profit at 33, profit – 3300, TOTAL PROFIT 2700/ on investment of only 2000/-

Today’s Pick (Intraday to 1-2 sessions) –

I am trying to start this section but range bound session is not permitting. So today just giving you small details, from next day we will have calls with details.

WILL UPDATE DURING MARKET HOURS, AS NEED TO CHECK MARKET SENTIMENT

Today’s MG Mantra –

Nifty has ride 180+ points so now it would need a bit rest till FDI discussion. Trade with select stocks only.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.