Morning Bells (7 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Don’t feel bad that people remember you only when they need you. Feel privileged that you are like a candle that comes to mind when there’s darkness in their life.

Once again Nifty closed a bit higher y’day. Realty stocks gained higher at 2% while Auto stock loosed the steam.

Well now only debate is going on which is Obama or Romney, its election of 57^th President or say 2012 US President election. I studied little news and about some pre-poll assumption, people are talking about a Tie. So what if there is a tie? If there is a tie amongst the electoral votes or if no candidate receives the minimum number of electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will choose the President, and the United States Senate will choose the Vice President. So if there’s a tie then January 6^th would be an important date for US Presidential candidates.

In the last hundred years it happened just once that a Republican candidate defeated a Democratic incumbent. Ronald Reagan did that in 1980 by beating Jimmy Carter.

Well come to home ground, as told y’day during market hours about Obama v/s Romney – now its not matter of dip, now its matter of how much upmove we can see because in both condition market is moving up but a bit less if Obama wins, because to my view all worries are already priced in as market is not showing relief sign since past one week, so as told dips can be used to buy, and I guess people are buying on dips. They are hoping an up-move, once elections will over, so we can have around 100 points up-move for this festive series.

But there’s only one hurdle, as told y’day now focus has shifted to Greece voting, today is the day. Rupee decline is another part of worry.

This week has QE from some of blue chips, major corporate result announcements this week include Cipla , Tata Power , Reliance Infrastructure , Hindalco , Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries, ONGC , Ranbaxy , Tata Steel , Jindal Steel & Power, Coal India and SBI.

For a mid-term view – since financial markets have suffered over the last four years with the mortgage crisis, the Lehman crisis, Greece, Europe and policy paralysis in India. Now there is a lot of optimism about Europe and America that markets will make new highs.

There are also hopes for fall in commodity prices because equity fell down and commodity enjoys the bull phase so now either the end of the bull market or there could be a correction, and with hope of that foreign buying is coming because we are the country that is going to benefit the most from the fall in commodity prices. Let’s see what happens.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Today we have 2 important news, US Prez election result and then Greece voting, once it’s over FII flows will resume. As already suggested market is in trading range, watch for breakdown or breakout of either side, and keep eye on 5680 & 5730 both are trend deciding levels on closing basis.

After US Polls, post that we will be again on home ground and reforms may take the centre-stage again with developments on several important bills for which parliamentary approval is needed is expected to be taken up in the winter session.

Market is consolidating since long seems now players looking for some ground reality on reform announcement. So one needs to see physical activity happening on ground for that to pick up

The INDIA VIX on NSE surged 6% to end at 15.48 and F&O PCR is 0.93.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 6 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	25961	696.17	29884	851.07	439549	11096.66	-154.90
INDEX OPTIONS	307229	8804.22	344141	9842.26	1724438	49369.90	-1038.03
STOCK FUTURES	34049	913.94	33894	934.80	1064004	29010.56	-20.85
STOCK OPTIONS	33480	923.28	40985	1116.74	77010	2157.77	-193.46

Once again FII have sold Index Future, OI increased by 15627 contracts and Nifty closed marginally up which indicates FII have done profit booking on their longs (may be a bit cautious approach) and created fresh shorts.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty Derivatives Statics as on 6 Nov 2012 (Key Facts)
Strike	OI	Change in OI	IV	Strike	OI	Change in OI	IV
Longs created				Shorts created
5700-CE	38,97,500	-4,57,750	14.08	5400-PE	53,80,950	98,800	17.11
5800-CE	57,86,000	5,19,650	13.5	5500-PE	49,43,150	-50,200	15.45
5900-CE	71,08,600	3,71,400	13.33	5600-PE	72,31,500	4,60,250	14.23
6000-CE	65,74,900	6,07,400	13.35	5700-PE	55,66,250	6,00,400	13.19

5700CE seen unwinding due to profit booking at higher price while approx 6 lac contracts added to both 6000CE and 5700PE which itself indicates that today’s session could be same as last two.

Resistance comes to 5738 - 5753 – 5776 and Supports comes to 5701 - 5679 – 5664 - 5625. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625, can lead to 5500-5450, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5725 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Opening seems mildly bearish and under pressure ahead of Greece worry.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

DB Realty - @102.5 for TG 115+ SL 94

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Note – Remember as told market may open lower today and we need to take advantage of that for good level entry into stocks.

IVRCL Infra – CMP 41.6 TG 44.5 SL 38, R 42.5 – 43.3 – 43.9 (Result on 10 Nov)

(Stock may show weakness in opening. Lot of infrastructure stocks have giving signs of life as realty prices are now started moving up a bit, also there’re lot of hopes with single window infra clearance. So don’t make long positin but it’s a momentum play. IVRCL seems good bet for 1-2 sessions. One can make strategy with 2CE v/s 1PE for good profit.)

Hindalco – CMP 117.7 TG - Not beyond 122 SL NA, R 119 – 120 – 122 S 116 – 114.5 – 113.5

(Result on 6 Nov)

(Result factor is already priced in and do not have potential for a good move right from here, it will strong resistance at 121 & 122, if it crosses 122 then 125-126 is the point from where it may have correction. So I would prefer to wait for right time to go short.)

Dishman Pharma – CMP 98.7 TG seems - 108 SL 91, R 100 – 101.5 – 103 S 97 – 95 – 94

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market may remain in a tight range unless there’s news. Enjoy the see-saw and nothing harm in making small profit through small trades.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.