Morning Bells (9 Nov 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Tow Bulls always fight in your mind… Negative Thinking and Positive Thinking. Do you know which one wins at the end?... The one you FEED THE MOST.

Finally we managed to recover from day’s low y’day and didn’t fall or say not reacted that much to global fall and Nifty managed to close 5738 (down 21 point).

Realty and auto stocks gained, while Oil & Gas stocks were down, Oil prices tumbled 4.8% to $84.44 a barrel, the IT stocks were also subdued with sentiment hurt on the return of Obama.

Cabinet has approved one-time spectrum fee in telecom sector. 

There are signals of a turnaround in the Indian economy and the second half of this fiscal year will see stronger growth, said Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, India, during the closing plenary session of the World Economic Forum on India.

So we have respected to global market today and now we will look forward for home ground. A lot of money has come into India in recent with hopes of reform. Now Govt. need to concentrate on fiscal consolidation which can help market a lot.

Further weakness in commodities will also help India market a lot as this is the country which can take benefit most from weakness in commodity then global leaders. Foreign buying is coming because we are the country that is going to benefit the most from the fall in commodity prices. Let’s see what happens.

Rupee fell on Thursday, snapping two sessions of gains, as euro zone concerns again took centre-stage with worries over whether Spain would seek a bailout soon. Rupee closed at 54.36/37 p er dollar, 0.3 percent weaker than its previous close of 54.2050/2150.

On global front -

EU turned RED as in today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.75%, 1.50% and 0.00% respectively.

Second term for Mr. Obama doesn’t seem relax, there’s fiscal cliff, they are planning for taxation taxes could lead US economy towards recession. Indian market is performing on its own merit i.e. what PC has done so far and now all eyes on for physical viability or action for that announcement, so to ride further, we need look to parliament and the Govt. So in short I do not foresee any big loss for Indian market yet (unless & until any further political development), so Indian market will recover sooner than others, Yes, ups and downs and pulls and pressures will be part of market. 

MARKET OUTLOOK –

As told y’day 3 will decide, trio helped Nifty to recover from day’s low or can say have seen recovery due to limited fall in RIL and strong support by TM and Bankex.

Had also warned y’day about S&P 1394 mark, at the time of writing MB it was breached and was trading at 1385 which seems real worry for US market as well as for EMs. EU also turned RED after GREEN opening. That’s both are indicating opening a bit lower and under pressure though people are talking about huge gap-up.

Today we have some frontline result which will decide further move, SBI seems to announce good no.s (please refer stock view section), Tata Steel can post a bit negative result as slow down in steel demand and prices.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and end at 14.30 and F&O PCR is 0.80.

So opening seems a bit lower as S&P has breached 1394 mark, ECB kept interest rates unchanged, EU turned RED, so there’re so many reasons for approx 20-25 point gap down. Then market will react to heavyweight results. I also guess we will see some strength in market after opening phase as y’day’s correction was also good for Nifty as its showing overbought zone. So it’s a good time for both bulls & bears to make good money.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 8 Nov 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	39245	1102.61	53711	1494.65	442795	11216.48	-392.05
INDEX OPTIONS	393897	11262.99	402419	11539.71	1826813	52439.28	-276.71
STOCK FUTURES	30413	873.72	45078	1270.77	1085184	29963.30	-397.06
STOCK OPTIONS	63261	1769.94	65187	1822.92	82493	2327.89	-52.98

 
After a long time we can see FII sold huge contracts, FII sold 14,466 contracts, OI decreased by 9502 contracts which is showing that FII have booked profit in longs and created fresh short in Nifty and Bank Nifty.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty Derivatives Statics as on 8 Nov 2012 (Key Facts)
Strike	OI	Change in OI	IV	Strike	OI	Change in OI	IV
Longs created				Shorts created
5700-CE	40,25,900	5,60,150	11.67	5400-PE	54,67,150	3,05,000	16.62
5800-CE	63,34,750	5,60,250	11.51	5500-PE	58,26,400	2,53,650	14.72
5900-CE	75,59,350	3,31,900	11.53	5600-PE	71,46,000	-20,650	13.64
6000-CE	82,51,150	7,52,550	11.64	5700-PE	70,85,450	1,98,150	12.89

The IV reduced for both longs and short positions which is a point of thought. Well now 6000Ce has highest OI of approx 82 lacs with fresh addition of 7.52 lacs while 5900CE has second highest OI of 75.59 Lacs is indicating that big players are bullish on market. Fresh addition to short side is low as compared to longs. 5600PE & 5700PE has approx same OI which is giving sense Nifty is not going to fall below 5600 in either case.

Resistance comes to 5757 - 5765 – 5808 and Supports comes to 5706 - 5674 – 5656 - 5630. Here I would like to mention Nifty has strong support at 5630 & 5580. Buying momentum is likely to accelerate above 5745 levels.

Trend deciding levels are, on downside keep eye on 5625, can lead to 5550-5500, while some buying momentum can be seen above 5745 and can lead to 5800-5830.

Nifty seems to open approx 20+ points down, then watch whether it recover after opening phase or not.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)

Tata Motors –

SBI is likely to report nearly 29% jump in its second quarter (July-September) net profit to Rs 3,615.1 crore. Net interest income (NII) or the difference between interest earned and paid out, may grow a little more than 12% to Rs 11,680 crore on standalone basis, according to a poll estimate by CNBC Awaaz. Experts are keen to watch Slippage as one of the key parameters in SBI's second quarter results.

SBI gained a percent ahead of its results closing at Rs2243

Tata Motors –

TM surprised to all with a great move, that helped to recover Nifty too. On upside it has two price band 285-289 and if that broken the 302. On downside it has 255-259 band, if 255 broken then 242-245.

TM is also planning to launch 7-8 new products/variants on its highly successful Ace mini truck platform, Ravi Pisharody, ED - commercial vehicles, said on Thursday.

Infra Sector –

India's  leading  conglomerate  and  infrastructure developer, GVK holds the unique distinction of managing and operating two of India's busiest airports, the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport (CSIA) in Mumbai and the Bengaluru International Airport in Bangalore. 

Adding another feather to its cap, GVK has signed an operations and management contract with The Airports Authority of Indonesia, (Angkasa Pura Airports API), the Indonesian government airport operator to manage the non-aeronautical commercial operations at Indonesia's second busiest Bali (Denpasar) International Airport.

The scope includes both, the existing terminals and the new international terminal which is currently under construction and is expected to open in the third quarter of 2013 with a major make-over.

OPEN CALLS –

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

DhanBank - @55 for TG 70 SL 45

Jindal Photo - @145 for TG 160+ SL 130

Note – Once can visit blog for New Stock Advice & Open Calls at MudraGuru.blogspot.in

View On Public Demand –

With receiving lot of request but you all know I don’t make call until I don’t track stock, so I just expressing SR Levels and small view on blog members demand, but still you need to track records and take my view as my very personal view.

Note – Remember as told market may open lower today and we need to take advantage of that for good level entry into stocks.

Hindalco – CMP 117.7 TG - Not beyond 122 SL NA, R 119 – 120 – 122 S 116 – 114.5 – 113.5

(Result on 6 Nov)

(Result factor is already priced in and do not have potential for a good move right from here, it will strong resistance at 121 & 122, if it crosses 122 then 125-126 is the point from where it may have correction. So I would prefer to wait for right time to go short.)

Dishman Pharma – CMP 98.7 TG seems - 108 SL 91, R 100 – 101.5 – 103 S 97 – 95 – 94

Today’s MG Mantra –

Market may remain volatile for few sessions, its time to play with extra care, one can make big score but could be clean bold too.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.