Morning Bells (21 Dec 12)

Good Morning Friends.

“TAKE IT EASY” is concept for common people… while “MAKE IT EASY” is a concept for brilliant people.

Oh! Too many news today, finally as expected Narendra Modi proved that Modi era to continue in Gujrat. Modi is Popularly known as NaMo in industrial fraternity and become the favourite poster boy for India Inc because of his industry-friendly policies and no nonsense attitude while doing business. Corporate predict if a Modi-led BJP comes into power in 2014 then it would be trigger for next Bull Run. An average select Gujrat based companies have given return approx 1500+% in Modi rule.

When Gujrat poll result were clear market started decline, not as Modi win, but it was a warning whistle for UPA to face strong opposition in near term but as soon as Himachal results turned positive for congress market recovered and ended with marginal losses on Thursday.

Selling pressure seen in the Consumer Durables, Auto, Capital Goods and the Power stocks. Even the BSE Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap indices ended with marginal losses however Metal sector gave the strength and BSE Metal index gained 1.2%.

Market participants also preferred to stay cautious amid losses on Wall Street over the lack of progress in U.S. budget negotiations.

Well, TCS, Infosys, Tata Power, Tata Steel, Hindalco Inds, Jindal Steel, Cipla, SBI and ONGC were among gainers while RIL, Wipro, Sun Pharma, ITC, Bajaj Auto, L&T, BHEL, HDFC Bank, NTPC and Coal India were among losers in Sensex and Nifty. 

On domestic front Rajya Sabha has approved the banking laws amendment bill, paving the way for issuance of new bank licences and consolidation in the sector, according to reports.

Well seems market will remain balanced and buoyant till Govt. announced policies does not turned into reality. (Yes within its time limit), especially Media sector and Non Banking Finance Companies seems good bet till budget. So if reform shows sign of ground reality then lot of large foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will increase their India weights.

So today I don’t have much to say, but yes I am expecting some kind of correction in Nifty which will give strength and will form a base for Jan series either to reach higher levels or to make new high.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Well nothing has changed right now and Nifty again seems in the range of 5785-5990. Now its only 4 days left for Dec series expiry and market go volatile. Today is also Friday, last day of week.

So trend is still buy on dips but its not time to go longs aggressively, its select and cautious approach.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 1% and ended at 14.32 against 14.47 and FNO PCR is 0.94.

The rupee fell for sixth session and ended at 54.84/85, weaker than its previous close of 54.55/56.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1442 up 6.18 points at the time of writing Morning Bells.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20 Dec 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	72293	2149.45	70486	2092.97	436326	12798.91	56.49
INDEX OPTIONS	666882	19729.79	661117	19576.03	1621213	48029.22	153.77
STOCK FUTURES	174272	5069.82	170679	5184.19	1235158	36489.09	-114.37
STOCK OPTIONS	62872	1804.65	63457	1827.23	85204	2394.48	-22.58

FII bought 1807 contracts worth Rs. 56.49 Cr. and OI decreased by 3017 contracts indicated FII booked profit in longs in Nifty & Bank Nifty.

6000CE has highest OI of 1.2Crore with addition of 6.9 Lacs and 5900PE has highest OI with addition of 0.08 Lacs.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty still seems tired or can say taking some rest (forming base) before new Bull Run. Trend is still buy on dips till 5785 is safe. For short term I still see upside is capped and Nifty is in range of 5785-5835-5990-6040. Fire work or new upmove we can be seen in New series.

Resistance comes to 5942 - 5967 – 5998 and Supports comes to 5886 – 5855 – 5829.

Opening seems flat to positive but after opening session could be choppy.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

MCX –

MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) has received the final go-ahead from the financial markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for going live in new product segments such as equity, wholesale debt (bonds) and interest rate derivatives.

Reliance –

Reliance intends to invest $10 bn in its LTE network and has turned to SPIRIT's software products for voice and video calls over LTE instead of waiting for phone makers who are slow in offering handsets transmitting voice and video in 4G networks. Indian telecom operator Infotel, is a subsidiary of Reliance Group.

Banks –

On approval of banking amendment bill now rate sensitive stocks will show good move in near terms i.e. till next RBI policy outcome which is scheduled on 29 Jan. 12.

Keep eye on – Axis Bank, SBI, Yes Bank, ICICI & HDFC seems good bet.

Realty, Infra & Power –

Punj Lloyd – Bags first project in Hong Kong of worth Rs. 1168 Crore. Company wont an order in Hong Kong (SAR) market, Sembawang Engineers and Constructors (Sembawang) to construct MTR Corporation’s Shatin to Central Link Diamond Hill Station.

GMR – GMR Highways commissions two project before time. The two new projects are expected to generate revenue in the range of Rs. 75 to 80 lakhs per day for the former and Rs. 18 to 20 lakhs per day for the latter. With the commencement of these two projects, the Group has now a portfolio of eight operating highways. 

DLF – DLF arm has signed agreement with Aman Resorts Group

IBR – India Bulls Real Estate closes its buyback offer, Rs. 75/- per share payable in cash for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs. 450.00 crores. The Buyback Offer had opened on April 30, 2012 and closed on December 14, 2012.

Metals –

Metals shine y’day and gave strength to market. Our suggested stocks moved up.

Metal will shine in near term, recommended metal stocks to watch closely are Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries  and Steel Authority of India  (SAIL).

              

Auto –

Tata Motors –

In the last five months, Tata Sons, Tata Industries and Tata Investment Corporation between them have sold around 75 lakh shares of Tata Motors. UBS has a sell rating on Tata Motors with a price target of Rs 250. So what is driving the current upswing in Tata Motors shares? Brokers say heavy buying by momentum players like hedge funds has been a key factor in the steep rise in share price.

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+

Today’s MG Mantra –

Trend will clear after first half hour trade. So just wait for clear indication and then decide your trade.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.