Morning Bells (24 Dec 12)

Good Morning Friends.

DHANA se jayada uttam GYAN hota he, kyonki DHANA ki raksha hame karani padhati he jabaki GYAN hamari raksha aap karta he.

Finally much awaited correction & reaction of RBI policy (as RBI did less than street expectation) took place on Friday. Market shown some strength due to Gujarat & Himachal hopes, but finally US Fiscal cliff took the control and investors prefer some profit booking.

Indian market decline for second week, as market is waiting for the Govt. to introduce important reforms, also market appears to be in a sort of uncertainty with some kind of year-end fatigue. Christmas is round the corner but no signs of a Santa Claus rally here.

Nifty seems stuck in a range of 5800-5965 since last two week and now participants are waiting for a breakout either side which will decide direction for near term. Global cues also were not supportive as fiscal cliff issues continue to overshadow. Now volatility is likely to escalate due to F&O expiry.

The top gainers in the Sensex were Tata Steel  (up 8.5%), Hindalco (up 7.8%), Cipla  (up 4.2%), Tata Motors  (up 2.5%) and Grasim (up 2.2%) while Reliance Power (down 8.3%), Ambuja Cements (down 3.2%), ITC  (down 3%), L&T (down 3%) and HDFC (down 2.6%) were looser.

So in short, reforms failed to cheer the street, a quick snapshot of some key event –

# On Tuesday, RBI left the key policy rate unchanged in its mid quarter (December 2012) monetary policy.

# On Thursday, the Parliament paved the way for corporate houses to enter the banking sector by approving the Banking Bill, a key reform legislation pending for long.

# In continuation the Lok Sabha giving its approval for the Companies Bill, 2011.

# US stocks finished lower on Friday after a Republican plan to avoid the "fiscal cliff" failed to gain sufficient support on Thursday night, draining hopes that a deal would be reached before 2013

(MoneyControl.com)

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Market ended in red for the second consecutive week and now volatility is likely to escalate due to F&O expiry.

Once again I would like to emphasize view that nothing has changed right now and Nifty again seems in the range of 5785-5990. But as told market seems fatigue so now it would be interesting to watch the levels 5835 & 5785, both has good support and if breach then sharp decline not ruled out and Nifty can see 5700 or below level. And today it should be watched closely.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 2.16% and ended at 14.63 against 14.32 and FNO PCR is 0.88.

The rupee fell down further and ended at 55.06/07, weaker than its previous close of 54.84/85.

S&P 500 (US) ended at 1430.15 down 13.54.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21 Dec 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	125198	3700.83	129922	3823.86	457316	13268.40	-123.03
INDEX OPTIONS	602341	17692.83	565715	16678.71	1653287	48412.55	1014.12
STOCK FUTURES	213550	6189.24	206336	6244.94	1235576	36066.82	-55.70
STOCK OPTIONS	46692	1325.21	46160	1326.88	83814	2336.35	-1.67

FII bought 4724 contracts worth Rs. 123.03 Cr. and OI increased by 20,990 contracts.

6000CE has highest OI of 1.25Crore with addition of 4.89 Lacs and 5900PE has highest OI of 88.32 Lacs with unwinding of 6.63 Lacs.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

As discussed complete last week that Nifty seems tired or can say taking some rest (forming base) before new Bull Run. Nifty is in range of 5785-5835-5990-6040. Fire work or new upmove we can be seen in New series.

Resistance comes to 5876 - 5905 – 5922 - 5950 and Supports comes to 5830 – 5812 – 5783.

Opening seems flat to positive but after opening session could be choppy.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Punj Lloyd – Bags first project in Hong Kong of worth Rs. 1168 Crore. Company wont an order in Hong Kong (SAR) market, Sembawang Engineers and Constructors (Sembawang) to construct MTR Corporation’s Shatin to Central Link Diamond Hill Station.

GMR – GMR Highways commissions two project before time. The two new projects are expected to generate revenue in the range of Rs. 75 to 80 lakhs per day for the former and Rs. 18 to 20 lakhs per day for the latter. With the commencement of these two projects, the Group has now a portfolio of eight operating highways. 

Metals –

Metal rally last week very nicely and now could see some profit booking.

Auto –

Maruti –

Maruti Suzuki India  said it has started spadework to set up its second facility in Gujarat with acquisition of another 600 acres, in addition to its existing plan to invest Rs 4,000 crore for setting up a plant in the state.

              

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+

============ WEEK'S WATCH LINE ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stock can give you reasonable return in very short term –

FMCG – HUL & Tata Global

Pharma – United Phosphorus, Strides Acrolab

Cement Sector – may again show strength.

Today’s MG Mantra –

If market open lower and remain under pressure for 15-20 minutes in opening session then I would prefer to go short else I would prefer to sit on cash till next indication.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.