Morning Bells (27 Dec 12)

Good Morning Friends.

Never get discouraged, when your first few attempts fails, its often the last key in the bunch that opens the lock.

Finally we have come to year’s last expiry, much hyped and much awaited expiry.

Today’s upmove was mainly due to short cover and rollover in longs, primarily in Banks & in Nifty, traders seem to have rushed to cover positions on the eve of the Dec. expiry and after a positive start, the Sensex, Indian indices ended on higher note led by Capital Goods and Banking stocks.

Sentiment also boosted on hopes of quick resolution to US fiscal-cliff issue are building up after US President Obama cut short his Christmas holidays.

RIL, ONGC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, M&M, Hindalco, SBI, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, BHEL, Tata Steel, Bajaj Auto, HDFC Bank and L&T were among the gainers while CS, Infosys, Wipro, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy’s Lab, HUL HDFC Bank and L&T were among losers in Sensex and Nifty.

On indices front - Bankex, Capital Goods, Power, Realty, Oil and Gas, PSU, Metal, Healthcare, FMCG, Teck indices were the gainers.  IT index was the only the loser.

Now we need to look forward, so to move further from here Nifty need to close atleast above 5935 and people who are giving much attention to RBI Rate Cut has a very little impact on market or on economy. Market mood has increased on expectation of improvement in the economic and business environment while globally, the macro-economic situation looks bad, the valuations are no longer cheap and expectations of earnings growth already on the upside.

"Based on the recommendations of FIPB in its meeting held on November 20, Government has approved 12 proposals of foreign direct investment amounting to Rs 802.07 crore approximately," the Finance Ministry said in a statement. Including that of Ratnakar Bank and rejected Mahindra and Mahindra's proposal to form a defence joint venture with Israel's Rafael Advanced Defence System.

The Reserve Bank y’day said it will pump in Rs 8,000 crore in the market on December 28 by buying government securities to ease the liquidity situation. RBI decided to conduct Open Market Operations (OMOs) by purchasing government securities for an aggregate amount of Rs 8,000 crore on December 28, 2012," RBI said in a statement. It could give strength to market.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Today we have expiry. Now it would be interesting to see whether short covering takes place first or profit booking comes first. Data suggest Nifty can remain in small range on expiry.

Levels to be watched closely 5835 & 5785, both has good support while resistance seems 5950-5980

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 2.69% and ended at 14.10 against 14.49 and FNO PCR is 0.94.

The rupee rose 0.2% and ended at 54.85 than its previous close of 54.95.

S&P 500 (US) ended at 1418.32 down 8.34.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 26 Dec 2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY		Difference
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	89463	2634.33	83697	2471.30	560331	16456.19	163.02
INDEX OPTIONS	567766	16798.51	561810	16609.84	1624133	48031.02	188.67
STOCK FUTURES	316138	9180.11	295690	9291.61	1195501	36788.66	-111.50
STOCK OPTIONS	42183	1242.16	41810	1228.03	76463	2174.61	14.13

FII bought 5766 contracts worth Rs. 163.02 Cr. and OI increased by 77,028 contracts.

6000CE has highest OI of 1.13 Crore with unwinding of 3.76 Lacs contracts while 5800PE has highest OI of 92.33 Lacs with addition of 1.7 Lacs contracts. Y’day huge 14.44 Lacs contracts to 5900PE.

NIFTY OUTLOOK –

Nifty is in range of 5785-5835-5990-6040. Fire work or new upmove we can be seen in New series.

Resistance comes to 5929 - 5951 – 5986 and Supports comes to 5871 – 5836 – 5813 - 5783.

Opening seems positive and will be interesting to see whether short covering take place in first half or profit booking comes first.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

RCF –

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs today approved the disinvestment of 12.5 percent.

CARE –

The stock was listed at Rs 940, a 23% premium against its issue price of Rs 750 per share in the pre-open bidding on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). IPO was subscribed 40.77 times subscription, as per data available with the National Stock Exchange.

Auto –

Maruti –

Maruti Suzuki India  said it has started spadework to set up its second facility in Gujarat with acquisition of another 600 acres, in addition to its existing plan to invest Rs 4,000 crore for setting up a plant in the state.

              

============ OPEN CALLS ============

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Dishman - @118 for TG 130+ SL 107

DB Corp – @219 TG 240+ SL 201 (1-4 Week)

============ INVESTMENT BASKET ============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+

============ HOT SHOT ============

Keep eye on following stocks, if Nifty shows strength then these stock can give you reasonable return in very short term –

Buy Lakshmivilas Bank around 106-107 for TG 125+ (positional)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Due to some personal engagements there’s some time issue, hope you will bear this time with me.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.