Morning Bells (22 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

In each single day we smile and laugh so many times. We never thank GOD after every smile but we do complain him for every tear we cry.

Nifty is moving high and high, you all would be surprised what made Indian market to fly instead of weak global cues.

Last two weeks have been eventful for global investors and for the Indian economy. Globally, gold got cheaper by 17 percent in just two weeks, crude was down 12 percent. For India, cheaper gold and oil makes the monstrous current account deficit (CAD) look more manageable and also cuts the fiscal deficit.

As Oil prices are coming down or moderating that will be very healthy for India since we are mainly importers.

There was additional good news for the Indian economy as exports went up 7 percent in March after falling for several months and inflation fell below 6 percent for the first time in 40 months.

Well come to home ground -

While global markets are mostly in the red, the Indian market managed to stage a turnaround of sorts. A sharp drop in crude oil was perhaps one of the driving forces for this week’s advance. Markets chose to overlook IMF’s statement, that significant structural challenges would affect India. The IMF projected a 5.7% growth this year and 6.2% next year. IMF also stated that the world economic outlook has worsened over the past three months and growth will stay flat this year.

In terms of corporate numbers, Reliance Industries Q4 FY13 results were in line with expectations at the PAT level. Turning around of retail business and rising contribution of shale gas business in profits were the key positives from the consolidated results. Sustained sector leading performance and bullish commentary were the hallmark of TCS Q4 FY13 results.

With Nifty rebounding above the critical 200-DMA, the positive momentum could remain for a while. The cooling inflation has renewed hopes of a rate cut. On a day-to-day basis, the global developments will continue to influence the market even as investors closely eye corporate report card closely.

This week’s pullback from the lows of 5,500 levels has been really heartening. However, considerable risks persist. Stay alert to take advantage of short-term opportunities which come your way. Caution is most warranted as equities appear to be moving against the tide for now.

Gainers –

On weekly basis SBI (up 10.5%), Bharti Airtel (up 9.6%), Larsen & Toubro (up 8.5%), ONGC (up 8.3%) and Maruti Suzuki (up 8.2%) were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

On weekly basis TCS (down 3.9%), Wipro (down 3.8%), Cipla (down 1.1%) and Tata Power (down 0.5%) were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral –

IT was down 2.3%, Bankex up 7.5%, Healthcare was up 2%, Auto Index was up 5%, Oil & Gas was up 3.4% and Realty, Telecom, Metal also gained.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As discussed many times and even on Friday that small bounces are best chance to lighten up portfolio. Now here onward I see Nifty will remain in the range of 5750-5850, if you see it in past 4-5 expiry operators try to keep Nifty around the 100 mark i.e. either 5600 or 5700 or 5800 whatever, this brings lot of excitement and opportunity for swing trader in last 2 days of expiry.

Another reason for Nifty to maintain the levels till expiry is very clear - some of the private sector banks will be declaring their results by the expiry, so  that may take the Bank Nifty a little up. I see 5850 around level as resistance, may be in 2 days it can touch that level and on final day it may decline.

Warning – Avoid option at this moment, options can be traded only as intraday.

But what next - Traditionally, May series has always been lackluster and weak, but this time May series has five weeks, which will be very crucial.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 6.11% and ended at 15.36 against previous close of 16.36.

FNO PCR was 1.13 against previous close 1.13.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 25 paisa and was trading at 53.96 against its previous close of 54.21.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1555.25 up 13.64 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

RESULT CALNEDER –

22 Apr – Cairn India

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

The key 200-day Moving Average has once again proved a key support. Nifty bounced back after breaching this vital level on April 4. Since then, the Nifty, which was looking technically weak some times back now comes to 60:40 chances band. Now it would be interesting to see whether Nifty sustain above this level or not.

I also emphasize here, right now Nifty is just in HNS (Head and Shoulder) pattern, though one need to study it very carefully with various DMA. Lets have look on DMA calculations –

So I personally feel this 5720-5755-5805 range is danger, as per chart patter may be Nifty moves up a bit down then attempt for 5800 but till 5915 is no taken out, I wont bet for mid to long term, it may slip any moment for much lower levels.

Intraday Resistance – 5936 – 5865 – 5824 and Support – 5711 – 5640 – 5599 (Pivot 5753)

Opening – Seems a bit positive, as close was good and now global market are trending green.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM –

(Here onward I will try to keep TM in our daily scan)

Jaguar Land Rover Ltd aims to grow its sales by 20-30 percent this year in China, its biggest market, the company's China chief said on Saturday.

JLR, on track to start making Jaguar and Land Rover vehicles in China in partnership with Chery Automobile Co in late 2014, aims to achieve "profitable and sustainable growth" in the country, Bob Grace told reporters at the Shanghai autoshow

The company, controlled by India's Tata Motors Ltd , sold about 77,000 vehicles in China in 2012.

View – TM may continue its onward journey, once again keep in mind my favourite price bands for TM which is above 271 its 289-291, above that 305 around level, for mid term SL is 251.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +5750

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr = +7900

Today’s MG Mantra –

Expiry week, one can go long and exit around 5830, if trend reversal then keep SL 5735.

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Have a Profitable day – MG