Morning Bells (25 Apr 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Shakespeare did not pass M.A. in English, but now no one can pass M.A. in English without reading Shakespeare books.

After rallying for five straight trading sessions, the markets took a breather on Tuesday. After opening on a flat note, the markets remained under pressure throughout the day. However, a sudden bout of buying in the last hour of trade lifted the benchmark indices from the day’s lows. But it was barely sufficient for the markets to end on a positive note.

The late upswing was led by the pharma, IT, oil and gas and select telecom stocks. Capital goods, consumer durables, realty and banking stocks witnessed some profit booking.

Gainers –

RIL, Wipro, TCS, Infosys, HDFC, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, NTPC, Sun Pharma, Bajaj Auto and Dr Reddy’s Labs were among the major gainers in Sensex and Nifty. 

Losers –

Tata Power, L&T, Bharti Airtel, SBI, Gail India, Sterlite, Tata Motors, Coal India, ONGC, Jindal Steel and M&M were among the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral –

Mid-Cap index flat with a negative bias while the Small-Cap index ended with smart gains.

Domestic Front –

India earned in Petroleum export –

The Minister of State for Petroleum & Natural Gas Smt. Panabaaka Lakshmi informed the Rajya Sabha in a written reply today that since 2001-02 India is a net exporter of petroleum products. The Minister also informed that during 2011-12, the country exported 60.8 MMT of Petroleum products worth US Dollars 59.3 billion. 

She further said that increase in refining capacity is an integral part of the strategy for meeting the growing demand of refined petroleum products and improve the energy security of the country.

Fall in Commodity Prices bad for India, Experts -

Indian macros are increasingly looking better than what they did a while back, mainly on account of cool off in global commodity prices . However, Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics says the benefit is only in the short-term; in the long run, it will be bad news for India as well.

While fall in commodity prices benefit commodity importing countries, (like India), in the longer run if it is pricing in softer global economic growth, then that is going to be bad news for India as well.

LIC sells shares worth Rs. 8800 Cr. –

State-run insurance giant LIC has lowered its exposure in 17 blue-chip firms, with sale of shares worth an estimated amount of over Rs 8,800 crore, in the quarter ended March 31, 2013.

Life Insurance Corporation of India's holding increased in nine Sensex companies during the January-March 2013 quarter, showed an analysis of the shareholding pattern of Sensex constituents.

Global Front –

FDI dips 19% -

India received foreign direct investment (FDI) worth USD 1.79 billion in February, 2013-  a decline of about 19 percent due to global economic slowdown.

In February 2012, the country had received FDI worth USD 2.21 billion. In January this year, the country had attracted USD 2.15 billion FDI.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down 7% and ended at 15.07 against previous close of 16.22.

FNO PCR was 1.23 against previous close 1.19.

Indian Rupee – Rupee weakened by 20 paisa and was trading at 54.38 against its previous close of 54.18.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1582.31 up 3.53 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Nifty and Bank Nifty futures are seeing long rollovers of around 28% and 20%, so now 5760 could act as strong support as huge put writing seen in 5800 April option.

Intraday Resistance – 5909 – 5877 – 5856 and Support – 5804 – 5771 – 5751 (Pivot 5824)

Opening – Seems flat ahead of expiry and can be in wild swing in second half.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

TM –

TM showing strength and can move up a bit, but a cautious approach is required as quarter by quarter its sales going weak and definitely it would impact its final result.

View – TM may continue its onward journey, once again keep in mind my favourite price bands for TM which is above 271 its 289-291, above that 305 around level. Would suggest to book profit around /above 289 level.

HDFC Bank –

HDFC Bank Q4 PAT stood at Rs18.90bn, while Q4 net NPa's stood at 0.2%.

For the Consolidated period, the profit for the year attributable to the Group of Rs. 68696.40 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs. 52470.20 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012.

Total Income has increased from Rs. 341857.20 mn for the year ended March 31, 2012 to Rs. 429939.90 mn for the year ended March 31, 2013.


The company has announced that the Board of Directors of the Bank at its meeting held on April 23, 2013, inter alia, have recommended a dividend of Rs. 5.50 per equity share of Rs. 2/- each (i.e. 275%) out of the net profits for the year ended March 31, 2013.

Tata Power & R-Infra –

According to reports,  Appellate Tribunal For Electricity upheld the Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (MERC) September 2010 order, and refused to expunge the adverse remarks made by the regulator against Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (R-Infra).

The matter relates to tussle between R-Infra and Tata Power Co. Ltd for larger share of consumers in suburban Mumbai after SC in July 2008 accepted Tata Power’s contention that it had a licence to distribute electricity across Mumbai, says report.

Tata Power announced its decision to withdraw 762 MW power it was supplying to R-Infra without any formal power purchase agreement between the two parties.

MERC in its September 2010 order had reported, “R-Infra has been repeatedly directed by the Commission to take all necessary steps to contract for the necessary power requirement expeditiously

R-Infra moved ATE demanding removal of this and many other observations by MERC against it.

JSW Steel -

JSW Steel plans to bid for iron ore mining blocks in Karnataka that could go up for auction after a Supreme Court order last week, as the country's third-largest steel producer looks to cut its dependence on costly imports.

JSW and rivals such as Essar Steel have been forced to import iron ore due to a ban on mining in two states of India, once the world's third-largest iron ore exporter that is expected to be a net importer this year.

"The lifting of the SC's ban is a positive for us and will help in increasing capacity utilisation," CMD Sajjan Jindal told CNBC-TV18.  "It will also reduce cost overheads. JSW will not get access to good quality iron ore."

Axis Bank –

Aided by higher interest and other income Axis Bank the third largest private sector lender reported a forecast beating 22 percent year-on-year rise in its fourth quarter (Jan-March) net profit at Rs 1,555 crore. Net interest income (NII) or the difference between interest earned and paid out, rose 24 percent YoY to Rs 2,665 crore.

On an average, analysts had expected Q4 net profit to grow 12 percent at Rs 1431. NII would rise 22 percent to Rs 2,615 crore.

"It was a strong quarterly performance in an adverse environment," Somnath Sengupta, Executive Director Axis Bank told reporters in a conference call.

Jet - Etihad –

Jet Airways will sell a minority stake to fast-growing Abu Dhabi-based carrier Etihad Airways for Rs 2,060 crore (roughly USD 379 million) after months of negotiations.

India's largest airline by market share said in a brief statement to the stock exchange that its board approved the allotment to Etihad of 27.3 million shares at Rs 754.74 each on a preferential basis.

The price represents a 31.7 percent premium to Jet's closing share price on Tuesday. Indian markets were closed on Wednesday.

No other details were immediately available but two sources involved in the deal who declined to be identified said the shares would be newly issued, and would represent 24 percent of Jet's expanded share capital.

FY13: It posted a net profit of Rs 2655.43 crore for the year ended March 31, 2013 as compared to Rs 2446.19 crore for the year ended March 31, 2012. Total income has increased from Rs 18681.72 crore for the year ended March 31, 2012 to Rs 20479.94 crore for the year ended March 31, 2013.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

(Start exiting from stock if Nifty goes below 5500 mark)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 50,300) + Apr 13 = +5750

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 1,09,350) + Apr = +7900 – 6300 = +1600

(Book loss in Titan PE, bought 4.3 exit 0.8 = -3500, Voltas CE bought 1.2 sold 0.5, 2 lots = -2800)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Here are chances – 50% Nifty can back around 5800 levels or even below, 30% chances to trade in 5820-5865 and 20% chances to close around above 5900. So all would depend on volume, so just keep eye on volumes and then take positions accordingly.

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Have a Profitable day – MG