Morning Bells (15 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Main badon ki izzat isliye karta hoon kyonki oonaki achchhaiya mujhase jyada he. Aur mein chhoto se pyar isliye karta hoon kyonki unake gunah mujhase kam he.

Well first to speak about Infy, which make market to give a break out 6000 in such a gloomy scenario.

It was another day of stellar gains for the Indian equity market. The benchmark indices continued their upswing on day two on strong set of results by Infosys.

The IT bellwether reported an about 4% increase in consolidated net profit at Rs. 2,374cr for Q1 FY14 as against a Rs. 2,289cr in the same period last year. Consolidated revenue for the IT major firm is up 17.2% at Rs. 11,267cr from Rs. 9,616cr in the year-ago period.

IT was the main market driver followed by healthcare, oil and gas and banking stocks. On the other hand, consumer durables, realty and FMCG stocks were under pressure. The upswing extended only to large-cap counters, midcap and smallcap stocks did not participate in the rally.

Gainers –

Infosys, IDFC, L&T, TCS, Reliance Industries, HCL Technologies, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Tata Motors and Bharti Airtel were among the top gainers.

Losers -

Jaiprakash Associates, ONGC, Maruti, UltraTech Cement, Grasim and IndusInd Bank lost out in trade today.

Sectoral –

Rally was led by metals, banks, realty, capital goods and oil and gas stocks. Even midcap and smallcap stocks saw some buying momentum. Consumer durables bucked the trend, ending in the red.

Domestic Front –

IIP –

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of May 2013 as reported by the Central Statistics Office. The Index for the month of May 2013 stands at 167.6, which is 1.6% lower as compared to the level in the month of May 2012. The cumulative growth for the period April-May 2013-14 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 0.1%.

CPI –

June CPI inflation as reported by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) stands at 9.87% as compared to 9.31% (final) for the previous month of May 2013. The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas for June2013 are 9.63% and 10.13% respectively. Inflation rates (final) for rural and urban areas for May 2013 are 8.98% and 9.65% respectively. .

Trade Deficit-

Exports during June, 2013 were valued at US$23785.64mn (Rs. 138901.73 crore) which was 4.56% lower in Dollar terms (0.53% lower in Rupee terms) than the level of US$24923.11mn (Rs. 139644.68 crore) during June, 2012. Cumulative value of exports for the period April-June 2013 -14 was US$72455.67 mn (Rs. 405104.78 crore) as against US$73491.77mn (Rs. 397884.01 crore) registering a negative growth of 1.41% in Dollar terms and growth of 1.81% in Rupee terms over the same period last year.

Petrol Price Hiked-

Petrol price was today hiked by a steep Rs 1.55 a litre, the fourth increase in rates in six weeks, as falling rupee made oil imports costlier.

Oil companies raised petrol rates by Rs 1.55 a litre, excluding local sales tax or VAT, with effect from midnight.

Actual increase will be higher and will vary from city to city depending on local taxes.

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

The important cues to watch for next week is inflation and import and export data for the month of June. In global cues, investors will keep a watch out for the US Federal Reserve Beige Book report, which includes a summary and analysis of current economic conditions in each district and sector.

Since Nifty is breaking out its trading range, corporate earnings are there this week onward, which is giving sign of momentum, so may be due to dismissal IIP market may see some selling pressure but market is building on its gains at the beginning of this week.

My old statement is also there where I had told that Nifty to close above 5935 for 2 successive day to turn sentiment bullish for short term and 2 successive day above 5970 to turn sentiment from bearish to bullish in medium term.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was down by 1.06% and ended at 18.69 against previous close of 18.89.

FNO PCR was 1.21 against previous close 1.05.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained further by 2 paisa and was trading at 59.68 against its previous close of 59.70.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1680.19 up 5.17 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –

12 July – Result from Infy & Syntex

18 July – Axis Bank Q1 No.s

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

2 successive close above 5935 would act as trend changer for immediate short term while Nifty need to close above 5970-5990 to sustain the rally and then Nifty can head towards 6000 and then for a year’s new high. While downside support seems 5840/5750/5700

Opening – Opening seems on negative note as dismissal data will prompt traders to book profit. But see market in second half, if all goes smooth market can rebound.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Cipla -

There seems to be no respite for pharma companies. Britain’s drug regulator MHRA has recalled 16 medicines of Wockhardt after finding deficiencies in its Waluj plant near Maharashtra, three days after it issued an import alert.

Cipla closed at Rs. 406.05, up Rs. 6.05 or 1.5%, after the Mumbai-based drug entity became the latest pharma company to have come under the drug regulator's scanner for failing safety and efficacy tests. Samples of Cipla’s Ibugesic 200 mg and 400 mg tablets confiscated by drug inspectors last month were found to be of substandard quality.

Manglore Chemicals –

Its in limelight last week. Stock rose much than expected.

Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilisers ended at Rs. 70, up Rs. 2 or 2.2%, after Zuari Agro bought 30 lakh shares or 2.5% stake in the company at Rs. 68 per share.

Bajaj Auto –

In corporate news, the deadlock at Bajaj Auto’s Chakan plant near Pune continues for the third week as the meeting with Maharashtra Labour Minister did not lead to any conclusion.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TRACK Today –

L&T (seems moving up), M&M seems under pressure as whole auto segment is set to post weak Q1, Hexaware (seems moving up)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 58,800)

July 13 - +3000 - 3500 = -500 (Booked loss on Nifty CE on Tuesday)

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

July 13 - +8500 – 5500 = +2000 (Booked loss on Nifty CE & Rcap 380CE on Tuesday)

Today’s MG Mantra –

As per expectation Nifty just closed at 5935 Mark, for which we were talking since long. Now it would be interesting to see whether Nifty is going to close above 5935 today too. Just take care of 5935/5970 and 5840/5750, you can make good money.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.