Morning Bells (17 July 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Never get discouraged, when your first few attempts fails, its often the last key in the bunch that opens the lock.

It was a terrible Tuesday with the stock market witnessing serious collateral damage. The benchmark indices crashed in opening trade after the Reserve Bank on Monday announced measures to tighten rupee liquidity. In a move to curb exchange rate volatility, it raised the marginal standing facility and the bank rate to 10.25% from 8.25%. The RBI also decided to lower rupee liquidity in the system by capping the liquidity adjustment facility at Rs. 75,000cr from Wednesday.

RBI’s move will hurt the stocks of banking and non-banking financial companies mainly like Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Mahindra Finance and Shriram Transport Finance Company are likely to be hit adversely in the near term.

FDI cap increase – A step to improve FII inflow in Doldrums

Telecom and Courier Service – 100% from 74%

Defence – 26%

Insurance – 49% from 26%

FDI in public sector gas refineries, commodity exchanges, power trading, stock exchanges and clearing corporations will be allowed up to 49% under the automatic route as against current routing of investment through FIPB.

For petroleum and natural gas, the government has maintained its sectoral cap at 49%.

In credit information firms, 74% FDI under the automatic route will be allowed.

Gainers –

ITC, BPCL, Ambuja Cements, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, ACC, ONGC, Tata Motors and NTPC were among the top gainers.

Losers -

DLF, IndusInd Bank, JP Associates, IDFC, Axis Bank, Punjab National Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Yes Bank and Reliance Infrastructure lost out in trade Y’day.

Sectoral –

Among sectors, FMCG, healthcare , banks, IT, consumer durables, realty, auto, metal, capital goods, and oil and gas gained while power was the sole loser.

Domestic Front –

Global Front –

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

After RBI measure announcement to curb Rupee fall market crashed in opening itself. This move will hurt the stocks of banking and non-banking financial companies materially.

Also step taken by RBI has deemed or say washed out the hopes for further rate cuts. This is what prompted the sell-off in rate sensitive banking, realty and auto stocks.

I feel sentiment remained weak as many international brokerage houses cut India's FY14 growth forecast to 5.5% of GDP from 5.8% earlier.

However it would be interesting to see how market reacts on the decision of increasing FDI cap in Telecom and Insurance.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up by 1.06% and ended at 18.99 against previous close of 18.79.

FNO PCR was 1.15 against previous close 1.25.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained by 58 paisa and was trading at 59.31 against its previous close of 59.89.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1674.76 down 7.74 than its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

Buzz Q1 Nos –

18 July – Axis Bank Q1 No.s

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

It was one of rare day when almost all the analysis fails. Now what one can expect is – 5940 could be a support for immediate short term, if broken then 5750/5700 is the next level. On upside 5970/6040 / 6100 is the major hurdle or resistance.

Today would be an important day for market, need to watch closely how investors reacting on Govt.s taken steps. If there’s thin line of hope then market may go flat to positive else its drifting lower and lower.

Opening – Seems flat, first half an hour should be watched closely as market may go for dip if investors don’t see any relief measures taken by Govt.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

JPA 57.5CE - @1.1 SL 0.6 TG 2+ (1 lot)

TRACK Today –

L&T (up), M&M (can go up), Rpower (up), RIL (up)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Fronm Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 58,800)

July 13 = +3000 – 2200 = +800

(Booked loss 2200 in JPA CE)

Billionaire Club from Jan 13 to June 13 (Total 1,25,600)

July 13 = +6500 – 4400 = +1100

(Booked loss in JPA 4.4K, 2 lots)

Today’s MG Mantra –

Just watch and take clue from market online as its very uncertain how participant are going to react.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.

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