Morning Bells (04 Oct 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Successful people can’t relax in chairs, they relax I work, they sleep with a dream & awake with commitments and work towards the GOAL.

It was a handsome recovery on D-street and I am feeling great because once again Nifty is behaving on wave lines, y’day its just closed 5909 and my TG was 5910. If you have remembered we had discussed that if Nifty first starts declining from 5930 then TG was 5750 and strong support was 5700 from where it bounced back. Now if it attempt to 5990-6020 will again improve our confidence. We will witness selling pressure once Nifty will enter to this zone, somehow signal giving sense that against all popular prediction it can breach this physiological level, not confirm yet but on safe side I will lighten up my portfolio and will be with strict SL.

So feel good and fall under tempt, this is only due to weak dollar and temporary shutdown in US Govt. Rupee jumped over 1% tracking weakness in the dollar. The rupee was trading strong by 65 paise at 61.82 against the dollar. One more reason was there - The fresh measures to boost investor sentiment are likely to be announced after Sebi's next board meeting, which is expected to be held on October 5.

Another one - The Finance Ministry has decided to infuse more funds in public sector banks (PSBs), so that they can offer loans at cheaper rates. North Block has decided to infuse more than the budgeted Rs 14,000 crore into PSBs to help stimulate demand
Well, the benchmark indices surged higher despite no progress in the US on the dispute between Democrats and Republicans in Congress regarding shutdown.

Sebi to announce measures to boost economy –

Capital market regulator Sebi will soon announce more measures to improve the country's investment climate, including for foreign investors.

Sebi would be taking steps to attract more retail investors into the stock market besides charting out the operational framework for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as per suggestions made by the high-level Chandrasekhar committee, according to an official.

Currency Moves –

Rupee weakened further by 44 paisa and was trading at 62.51/dollar.

Federal Shutdown & Market –

I don’t know how many of you would have thought about it, so lets have look on this situation.

The shutdown will essentially be a “non-event” for the markets. According to global market experts - This has happened so many times before that the shutdown will not have much of a bearing at all.

Over the last 20 years there have been 12 government shutdowns ranging from one day to 28 days, with the average being 9 days. The market has fallen prior to previous shutdowns, but then rallied for months thereafter.

MARKET OUTLOOK –

Nothing great at the moment, Nifty bounced back from 5700 mark which was physiological level, so if my wave is correct then it will move a bit further and then around 5960 or in between 5990-6020 we may see a sharp decline. So keep eye on these 2 levels and exit longs and wait for further direction.

Mainly market will behave next week on Q2 earnings and economic data.

MG’s Nifty trading range –

R – 5960/74 – 6020 - 6094 – 6140/45 – 6230 (5990-6020 range can be act as crucial resistance and trend changer)

S – 5840 – 5762 - 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516

Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600

DMA – 100DMA – 5806, 200DMA - 5840

Technical Trend changer supports – 5715 – 5580 – 5535 – 5250 - 5120

ECONOMIC EVENTS / RESULT CALENDAR –

3 Oct – Hexaware OFS

11 Oct – IIP & PMI data, Result – Infy

12 Oct – Dussera Holiday

14 Oct - WPI

17 Oct – US senate voting.

21 Oct – Result – KTK Bank

STOCK OUTLOOK -

(Stock that can see some good moves either side)

FMCG –

Second half of this financial year, one is going to see fair bit of buoyancy in rural economy because of monsoons, better agricultural prices and election related spending, that is an important pack to be in.

So FMCG pack which has significant revenues coming in from rural India.

Media Sector & Telecom –

Keep eye on these sectors where reforms are happening in a relatively silent manner. If one looks at the media sector where because of digitization now spreading from four cities to another 38 cities, one is going to see significant pickup in subscription revenues. In addition to that- FDI related news on telecom sector makes it a good candidate to outperform. On the whole, a handful of these sectors could continue to outperform the broader markets.

Infy –

Infosys, a global leader in consulting, technology and outsourcing solutions, announced that it has signed a contract with Toyota Motor Europe for the provision of its Pan-European application support.

The four-year engagement will see Infosys deploy a managed service model, covering applications across a variety of Toyota’s operational areas in Europe, including core automotive processes (such as supply chain, manufacturing, sales, after sales and customer service) and corporate functions (including human resources and finance).
This will enable Toyota’s IT employees to focus on business support and project development, in addition to supporting cost optimization. 

MBC PL –

Oct PL = -1000

Yes Bank 340CE @18 SL 308 in cash – stopped out at 16

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