Good Morning
Friends.
Tow bulls always
fight in your mind… Negative thinking and Positive thinking. Do you know which
one wins in the end? “THE ONE YOU FEED MOST”
The October series
started off on a weak note and continue with its weakness on second consecutive
day. If we believe to market statistics, its all in mesh, fundamentals are
weak, earnings are going down then what made it to pull back from 5200 to 6000?
It was only liquidity and it was FII which pull back Nifty as good as 600
points and now they are selling. So everything is strange here but what I feel
that in a mid term view we are going down, there may be small relief rallies in
between but I guess what we have discussed about 5000-5200 mark is still on
card. So better trade accordingly.
In the past two days the NSE Nifty has lost nearly
200 points as investors faced the growing likelihood of a shutdown of the U.S.
government, while political worries in Italy and a downbeat China manufacturing
survey also acted as a dampener on sentiment.
Well it should have
hold 5750 mark but market participants preferred
to exit their positions amid fears of a widening April-June current account
deficit. Among the other important data which was scheduled to release later
y’day were August fiscal deficit data, Q2 balance of payment data and August
Eight infra deficit data.
Important
Data –
India’s current account deficit (CAD) in Q1 of 2013-14 was US$ 21.8bn
(4.9% of GDP). It was US$16.9bn (4% of GDP) in Q1 of 2012-13. The trade deficit
in Q1 of 2013-14 increased owing to a rise in imports and some decline in
merchandise exports.
The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 154.5 in August, 2013. August Key core industries growth at 3.7%
Fuel
Drama to continue –
Petrol price was today cut by Rs 3.05 per litre,
the first reduction in rates in over five months and the steepest in over five
years, while diesel prices were raised by 50 paise a litre. The price changes
announced by oil companies are excluding local sales tax or VAT and will be
effective midnight tonight.
While petrol price cut has been made possible
because of appreciation in rupee value against US dollar, diesel rates are
being hiked as per the practice of increase in rates by small monthly doses to
cover losses.
I guess it could be a prior step to justify big
price hike in Diesel price in coming months.
Currency
Moves –
Rupee
weakened further by 44 paisa and was trading at 62.51/dollar.
MARKET
OUTLOOK –
As discussed y’day, technically Nifty was weak as it
was closed below its 200DMA 5841 and now it is round the corner of its
physiological level of 5735. If today it attempt to 5700 mark then again selling
pressure will intensify.
The Nifty (October) futures’ premium
increased marginally from 54.95 points to 56.15 points. Around 6.38 lakh shares
were reduced in open interest with a marginal increase in the cost of carry,
indicating the short positions were squared off.
MG’s Nifty trading range –
R – 5753 – 5796 - 5831 – 5960 (5960 can be act as crucial resistance
and trend chaner)
S – 5700 – 5670 – 5610 – 5552 - 5516
Nifty swing band is 5600-6100 and 4900-5600
DMA – 100DMA – 5814, 200DMA - 5841
Technical Trend changer supports – 5715 – 5580 – 5535 – 5250 - 5120
EVENTS –
3 Oct – Hexaware OFS
17 Oct – FOMC voting.
STOCK
OUTLOOK -
(Stock that can see some good moves either
side)
RelInfra -
Shares
of Reliance Infrastructure was down 6% on reports that CRISIL downgraded
company's debt programmes and long-term bank facilities to 'CRISIL A+/Negative'
from 'CRISIL AA-/Negative'.
RPower –
Shares
of Reliance Power was down 4.5% after its CEO J. P. Chalasani resigned last
week to pursue his entrepreneurial ambitions and re-locate overseas.
JSPL –
Charts suggesting significant downside.
MBC PL –
Oct
PL = -1000
Yes
Bank 340CE @18 SL 308 in cash – stopped out at 16
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