Morning Bell (5 Sept 12) - Good Morning Friends,

Could be a good news for market lovers but I am not happy at all with in what direction current political situation is going on. Yes, why I am here, just to benefit poor and innocent traders but Govt. move on reservation, hike in fuel prices etc. all are not in favour for future of this country. Please don’t think wrong but my said points (Govt’s worst politics) won’t solve the main issue of this country which is Fundamental structure need (A begger was reading news paper headline on 15^th Aug 2012, headline was “we are going to celebrate 65^th independence day today” his immediate reaction was “kamal he 65 saal gujar gaye, pata hi nahi chala”), I often joking saying – bhagwan bharose hi chal raha he ye desh, jis din bhram tootega to zameen bhi nasib nahi hogi.

Well, if some of you would have remembered my wording about parliament deadlock and reform progress – I had said that time that Govt. is paralyzed till Monsoon session only not after that come true y’day. Finally Govt. got success to pass 3 bills and now indicated heavy fuel hike which won’t be easy to acceptable widely, specially middle class would be affected most, Mamta Banerjee again proved himself true as she had told that Govt. is just reducing 1 or 2 Rs. for Presidential election and will hike more after this election.

Well that was the big reason why market recovered in late hours (RIL recovery too) instead of week global cue and defeated bears force. But it doesn’t mean bulls are out of danger. Now we need more cautious approach as told many times this time big crocos will try to find new trick. One more thing I would like to highlight here, why I am sharing all this to you??? Just because new members and innocent trader need to understand market, how risky it is, how big crocos play tricky all the time, that’s it.

Once again RIL come as saviour for market in late hours, RIL recovered smartly. Remember, RIL has capacity to give direction, a day before some of you thinking RIL will go down further (as per HNS) but my sense was that it will recover around 20 pts which also proved me right today. Upmove was also supported by Realty, Oil&Gas, Power, Consumer Durables and Metals.

CBI move has also gave strength as it as has message that Govt. look forward to clear deadlock in parliament for rest of days and in hurry to pass some important reforms. CBI has filed an FIR against five companies which are - AMR Iron and Steel, JAS Infra Capital, JLD Yavatmal Energy, Navbharat Power and Vini Iron & Steel.

Moody’s Service downgraded the outlook on the Europe (Union) to negative and warned that the region could lose its “AAA” debt rating and most European stock indices fell today after Moody’s announcement.

So, now once again all eyes will be on ECB meet on Thursday (think why Mr. Dragi of EU avoide Jackson Hole meets). It seems ECB could cut rates, investors also eying for detail on a new bond-buying plan to ease the funding pressures on Spain and Italy. So now investors are on a 'wait-and-watch' mode ahead of crucial policy meet.

Well, here I would like to thank you all for your support, love and best wishes, finally I started my own blog (was happy here and can say it’s an early step) after repeated requests put me under pressure for doing so. Initial response seems good, more than 150+ visitors everyday (even most of my friends and followers are not aware about it at the moment) make me smile that I made right step and also very happy if its helping people to make profitable trade. One can visit my blog MudraGuru-blogspot-in or can find me at G+ with word “Mudra Guru”, space is required.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Oil ministry is preparing a Cabinet note on fuel price hike, an increase in petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene prices looks "imminent" after the Finance Ministry said it has no money to provide for fuel subsidy. The quantum of the hike will be left to the Cabinet. Official don't see the "coalgate" issue coming in way of Cabinet hiking prices. (Source CNBC TV)

Market still is in confused mode and as it saved 5250 mark smartly we can assume it a base for short term and that’s we have seen some short positions unwinding around 5260. Market seems in a tight range, say aprx 100 points (5220-5335). So better option is to sell on rise till 5335 is not broken and one can make intraday longs.

So sell on rise is suggested.

NIFTY –

Once again FII booked profit on their longs in Index and OI volume decreases which is giving sign of market weakness in coming days. So in short now one need to take positions according to support & resistance in Nifty. Nifty supports at 5240 - 5220 – 5200 and resistance 5288 – 5305 – 5335. Breakout of last range (5200 or 5335 on closing basis) of either side will confirm the direction either side.

Till Nifty remains in this range one need to make positions only on intraday basis. I also like to warn here especially to FNO traders as warned in the beginning of series that this series again seem very tricky, so few range bound sessions will reduced the premium and will be non-beneficial for hedge traders. So better to book profit Intraday to next sessions, Nothing wrong in selling on high levels and take same positions on lower levels.

As per current data Nifty seems in the range of 5150 – 5335. Fall below 5200 could exposes the index to further falls to 5100-5050 even there is high chances of huge gap down opening too. Nifty falls to 5050 mark then it would be good for market to make new high of 2012 in coming months.

Openings seem in hand of Bears as most of global market fell down after Moody’s announcement and weak global cues.

STOCK OUTLOOK

Deccan Chronicle Holdings – keep eye on it for Intraday to short term.

RelInfra – Y’day was not good for it as Metro pillar crashes in Mumbai. News can put RelInfra into trouble as its 3^rd incidence till date. Also, Anil Ambani has also declined the rumours of merger of RPower and RelInfra.

Banks – Banks seems good bet for next 2-3 sessions. SBI Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri’s statement boosted Bank Nifty, Mr. Chaudhuri expects 100 basis points cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut by the RBI on 17 Sept policy meet. He also expects demand for home loans to pick up in the next 2 months.

My pick was in Banking sector is – SBI (bought @1830 for TG 1890+ SL 1810, updated SL 1840) and Bank of India (bought 358 for TG 375+ SL 352)

TM- Watch TM for breakout of 239, above 239 there’re high chances to touch 246-251. SL 231

Keep eye on – IRB, GMR, IDFC, Kalyani Steels (Keep eye mean watch its movement for first hour and then make position accordingly on Intraday basis for small gains)

OPEN CALLS –

(Lighten your positions before Friday if you are in need of liquidity)

Jain Irrigation – We have booked profit y’day, bought 62.5 & sold 64.3. Again watch, if it remain stable then one can make position below y’day close for 2-3+ gains.

Apollo Tyre – For Longs (bought @94) can book profit above 97, SL 86

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) and FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Today’s MG Mantra – Lighten up your portfolio before Friday. Make positions on Intraday basis.

Oops! Took so much time… well, Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.