Morning Bells (6 Sept 12) - Good Morning Friends.

Well, D-Street opted wait and watch y’day and slightly cautious approach ahead of ECB meet (ECB meet today after mkt hours). I was also warning since past 2 days to lighten up your portfolio if you are in need of liquidity.

The Oil Ministry has already conveyed that it has no money left for fuel subsidy, so according to media reports the petrol prices could be revised by Rs. 4 a litre, diesel by Rs. 5 and LPG by Rs. 50 a cylinder. So it would be good news for some indices and bad for fuel sensitive indices.

Nothing much to say as globally investors have opted for wait & watch policy. I would also prefer it.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Market seem directionless, if we have look on FNO data Nifty showing broad range i.e. 4800-5000-5200-5400-5600, Fresh short have seen below 5000 mark which is not good sign for market, if something goes wrong on global platform (specially with EU) then we can head for 5000 or even below.

So sell on rise is suggested.

NIFTY –

As suggested during market hours that First Nifty will visit 5240 mark and then can make attempt to 5220, mkt reacted same as was expected, it back to some extend from 5240 and then broken it and visited 5220.

As told, 5200-5220 is the range where bears can think to book profit, so it would be interesting to see what’s going today, whether bears are going to book profit and will try to push Nifty below 5200 mark. Now 5180 & 5160 will act as support for current Nifty range while Nifty will face resistance at 5235-5265-5300.

My view will remain same – breakout of 5290 or 5335 on closing basis will give clear indication for mkt direction. As told y’day as per current data Nifty seems in the range of 5150 – 5335.

Nifty was down by 46 pts and OI increased is showing people has started building fresh shorts.

Since ECB meet will take place after mkt hours mkt will remain volatile.

Openings seem in hand of Bears and mkt will remain volatile. It could be a good day for swing traders. Since US & EU ended mixed mkt may try to recover in late trade if EU supports.

STOCK OUTLOOK -

Banks – Instead of good move bank stock fell down y’day as country’s largest bank SBI announced a cut of up to 1% in interest rate for fixed deposits across maturities, a development which may prompt other banks to follow suit. "The new rates would be effective from September 7," country's largest bank cleared in a statement. The negative effect would be short lived.

Banks will remain on RADAR as banks are expecting 100 basis points CRR cut on 17 Sept RBI policy meet. Banks are also expecting that due to festive season demand for home & car loans to pick up in the next 2 months.

My pick was in Banking sector is – SBI (for short term TG 1900) and Bank of India (bought 358 for TG 375+ SL 352)

TM- Watch TM for breakout of 239, above 239 there’re high chances to touch 246-251. SL 231

Keep eye on – IRB, GMR, IDFC, Kalyani Steels (Keep eye mean watch its movement for first hour and then make position accordingly on Intraday basis for small gains)

OPEN CALLS –

(Lighten your positions before Friday if you are in need of liquidity)

I am experiencing a bit difficulty to watch movement of more stocks simultaneously so I am going to opt slightly reserve policy in making calls.

Jain Irrigation – Some of you have taken position @63, and if not squared off then just keep SL 58, as I expect it to go around 66+ level and then it may back to below 60 but if market loses steam then it can go down further.

Apollo Tyre – Nothing to worry about it, few we made @94, and few made @92 y’day, I am bullish on this stock and it has power to touch 100 level if market supports, so just keep SL 86 and TG 97+

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) its below its good support 129, will wait for mkt and then will think to average our buying levels.

FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Showing good strength since last couple of days and hope it will achieve TG whenever mkt will rebound. Originally it was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Note – One can also find Morning Bells at MudraGuru.blogspot.in & at G+ as “Mudra Guru”

Today’s MG Mantra –

Wait till ECB, don’t make fresh positions. Cash is the only way to be on sit in a Casino else you won’t have any option to back home, so don’t fall under temptation. WAIT IS FAR BETTER THAN TO LOSE.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision