Morning Bells (3 Sept. 12) - 
Good Morning Friends.

TIME TO ACTIVATE FOR BULL FORCE TILL ECB MEET.

No.s of news are out before fresh start of this week and seems it will give some breathing space to bulls; only one disappointment (or say fear) can change the game which is deadlock in Parliament. Have a look on news came across.

NEWS WHICH CAN GIVE DIRECTION TO THE MARKET THIS WEEK –

GAAR - Changes proposed by Shome Panel on GAAR draft seems mkt friendly.

GDP - India GDP has come to better than expected i.e. 5.5 while on broad based expectation was for 5.2.

Jackson Hole - Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole delivered a somber message on growth and cannot be considered as total disappointment, if you remember I had indicated that it would be a neutral event in concern with Indian mkt. Bernanke also indicated no further action from Central Bank to stimulate the stagnant economy. He’d cleared that he’s ready to provide help but not additional stimulus steps.

FEAR / HURDLE - Investors are still concerned about the gridlock parliament, which is dashing hopes for policy reforms. Fiscal deficit for April-June already reached 51.5 percent of the full fiscal year target. (Reported MoneyControl.com) So Indian stocks could face volatility this week as investors will choose to see global market reaction to the Fed Governor Ben Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole.

AGMs - Annual general meetings at select blue chips will also be eyed.

MARKET OUTLOOK -

Watch out for 50-day moving average, technically Indian stocks looks vulnerable to further falls below 50 days SMA. Market has good support in a tight range at 5250 – 5220 – 5200, fall below 5200 could exposes the index to further falls to 5100-5050 even there is high chances of huge gap down opening too. Nifty is also looks near forming HNS, if it confirms this week then it will confirm that we are heading towards 5050-5100. As told many times if Nifty falls till 5050 mark then it would be good for market to make new high of 2012 in coming months.

NIFTY -

Some buying interest can be seen at lower levels. So short term / day traders watch for Nifty close 5200-5220, till this range is safe one can make intraday longs. Now Nifty will face resistance in the same range as it has come down which is 5265 – 5300 – 5330. If Nifty comes in the range of 5200-5220 then we can also see some profit booking in shorts positions.

Openings seem on positive note (10+ PTS), i.e. mildly bullish as EU recovered smartly in late trade and thereafter next cue from EU.

STOCK OUTLOOK

Keep eye on – HDFC Bank & SBI. (On Intraday basis)

(Some of you made good profit in 3 out of 4 on Friday – Apollo Tyre 5Rs, HDFC Bank 5Rs, SBI 15-20Rs, only JK remained 2Rs lower, For JK keep SL 99)

TM- As told many times stock need to break its 3 strong hurdles 246 – 251 -256 (we have seen it backed two times from 250). TM current range is 221 – 231 – 251/56. Today it may give try for 241.

CAG Effect – Keep eye as UPA II indicated that it can cancel the allotment of few companies on the price of Parliament dreadlock. So keep close eye on CAG development as one can make good profit in making short in this cos. (but on intraday basis only)

OPEN CALLS –

Apollo Tyre – We made 50% profit @ 95.5 (bought @90) on Friday, For Longs (bought @94) can book profit @ 98,

Cox&Kings (TG 148, SL 121) and FDC (TG 94, SL 78) – Was suggested as short term investment, so do not panic, time will favour soon to book profit. Do not make fresh position for very short term.

Today’s MG Mantra – Don’t forget to book part profit to safe your investment. Do not fall in temptation Medium to long term right now; one should wait for right Entry levels.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer – I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills before making a wise decision.