Morning Bells (11 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Zindagi Tasveer bhi hai aur Taqdeer bhi, farq to rango ka he, manchahe rango se bane to Tasveer aur anjane rango se bane to Taqdeer.

After the Union Budget, the Finance Minister has been on an overdrive mode promising more announcements and measures to revive growth and investment. Some of these decisions will be announced when the FM replies to the debate in Parliament by end of March. Meanwhile Moody’s Analytics has said that the worst may be over for the Indian economy with the December quarter likely the bottom of the economic cycle and a steady acceleration in growth is expected in the coming year.

The week was the best this calendar year with a rally witnessed across global markets. For the week the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty surged by ~4% each to close at 19686 and 5946.

Overseas investors have pumped in more than Rs 1,400 crore (USD 254 million) in the Indian stock market in the first week of March.

This takes their total investment tally to Rs 47,909 crore (USD 8.88 billion) in the country's equity market in calendar year 2013 so far.

During March 1-8, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were gross buyers of shares worth Rs 24,206 crore, while they sold equities amounting to Rs 22,795 crore, translating to a net investment of Rs 1,411 crore (USD 254 million), as per data provided by market regulator Sebi.

The Income Tax department has decided to crack the whip on big companies and organisations that do not remit TDS money even after deducting it from their workers' salaries.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), the controlling and administrative authority of the department, has asked all I-T ranges to identify such cases where revenue implication is large and initiate prosecution in competent courts.

The action will be taken under Section 276B of the I-T Act which deals with "failure to pay tax to the credit of central government (I-T department)" and punishment under the said provision carries a rigorous imprisonment varying from three months to seven years of jail along with a fine.

Gainers – ICICI Bank (up 7.8%), DLF (up 7.3%), Larsen & Toubro (up 6.9%), SBI (up 5.8%) and Cipla (up 5.8%) were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Hindustan Unilever (down 3.5%), Ambuja Cements (down 2.3%), NTPC (down 1%), ACC (down 0.2%) and Reliance Infra (down 0%) were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

On Domestic Front –

1.

Moody’s Analysis - The Indian economy had a tough year in 2012. The year began with the global economy slowing alongside rising domestic risks and falling financials, and ended with India recording its worst quarterly GDP result since 2009. Several factors are weighing on the economy, and the key to understanding the 2013 outlook is to understand these items.

2.

Industry chamber Assocham today claimed that over 1 million (over 10 lakh) people lost their jobs in the export sector during April-February period of the ongoing fiscal and has demanded sops from the government to boost shipments.

"A sharp decline in merchandise exports is forcing widespread job losses in the sector estimated to be over one million people during April-February 2013," the chamber said in a statement.

It said as per preliminary reports, employment losses have been taking place across different sectors like leather, apparel, gems and jewellery.

3.

he combined market capitalisation of top-10 Sensex companies surged by a staggering Rs 83,488 crore last week, with TCS and RIL emerging as big winners.

The BSE 30-stock index, Sensex, rose by 4 per cent to end the week at one-month high of 19,683.23.

The market capitalisation (m-cap) of IT major TCS soared Rs 16,558 crore to Rs 3,10,053 crore, emerging as the top gainer among the top-10 most valued Indian companies.

On Global front –

1.

Employment report in US aided the gains. The Dow hit a 5-year high crossing over the pre-crisis highs of 2007. Meanwhile, ECB and Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

Since the fact is ahead of many investment book closer is there, also they need to show their final performance for whole year and they also need to compensate whatever weakness is there in financial books. So now market seems in broad range say from 5600 to 6200. Current market rally is likely to continue and it can push Nifty  to 6,100 going ahead but yes remember global market cues will make the final impression on our markets and flows.

The INDIA VIX on NSE was up 2.07% and ended at 13.34 against previous close of 13.07.

FNO PCR is 1.05 against previous close 1.

Indian Rupee – Rupee gained 17 paisa and was trading at 54.29 against its previous close of 54.46.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1551.18 up 6.92 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now on event of financial book closer range is changed, now downside range is 5600 while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 6041 – 5997 – 5971 and Support – 5901 – 5857 – 5831

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6333 – 6143 – 6044 and Supports – 5755 – 5664 - 5466

Opening – Seems flat, after a decent week, Nifty may take breather ahead important events this week and next week.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

# This week keep eye on L&T, IDFC & Tata Motors, these stocks can show good strength.

RBI releases New Banking Guideline –

The Reserve Bank of India has been receiving queries from intending applicants seeking clarifications on the guidelines on Licensing of New Banks in the Private Sector. The guidelines were issued on February 22, 2013.
Considering that the clarifications sought would be of wider interest and use for all intending applicants, the Reserve Bank has decided to post the clarifications on its website. The identity of those who raise queries would be kept confidential, the central bank said on Thursday.
The queries may be sent by April 10, 2013 to Chief General Manager-in-Charge, Department of Banking Operations and Development, Reserve Bank of India, Central Office, 12th Floor, Central Office Building, Fort, Mumbai–400 001 through mail or email.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TCS 1550 PE – bought @21 (1 Lot) SL 15 TG 35+ (Active from 8 Mar 13)

Baja Auto 1950 PE – bought @22 (2 Lot) SL 15 TG 35+ (Active from 8 Mar 13)

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +10,000

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +18,700

Today’s MG Mantra –

No worry at the moment, market may show slow movement. Just keep eye on 5870 on downside.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.