Morning Bells (12 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

In this world nothing is impossible, if you see the word “Impossible” carefully, it itself says I M Possible. So its depend how you see the word (i.e. world).

As told y’day that after enjoying a fantastic rally in the previous week Nifty will take breather, since people didn’t book profit on Friday, so they preferred to take away cash today.  The Indian equity benchmark indices took a breather on Monday as the Sensex and NSE Nifty ended flat. Market participants remained cautious ahead of IIP and inflation data to be released in the coming days.

he IT stocks which were in the limelight witnessed some profit booking as index heavyweights like TCS, Infosys and Wipro ended lower by almost a percent each. Among the other heavyweight’s losers were, Reliance Industries, Hero Morocorp, Bajaj Auto, Reliance Infra and Jindal Steel.

Cues from the international equity markets also were not that encouraging. The Asian markets were mixed and even the European markets were trading with a negative bias.

Although a close above 5900 has technically reversed the medium term negative trend however market may consolidate a bit before surpassing the psychological 6000 mark. Investors should remain in sound stocks as the market remains delicately poised.

The market would now be focusing on the factory output data which will be announced on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday. These may set expectations ahead of the central bank's monetary policy decision on March 19.

Gainers – Tata Power, Sun Pharma, M&M, Gail India, L&T, NTPC, SBI and Tata Steel were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - RIL, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, ONGC, Coal India, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp,  Cipla , HDFC, Jindal Steel, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddys and Maruti Suzuki were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - The Consumer Durables, Metals and the Oil & Gas stocks were among the other major laggards. Bucking the negative trend was the Realty, Capital Goods and the power stocks.

On Domestic Front –

1.

India is facing a serious issue of widening current account deficit (CAD). Ruchir Sharma, MD and head emerging markets equity team, Morgan Stanley feels that CAD is being funded by global liquidity which is a concern. India will face real problem if there is a bit fall in global liquidity due to macro economic problem. 

On Global front –

1.

itch Ratings has downgraded Italy's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'BBB+' from 'A-'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDRs is Negative. Fitch has simultaneously affirmed the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F2' and the common eurozone Country Ceiling for Italy at 'AAA'.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

IIP Nos to be announced on Tuesday March 12, 2013 while Inflation figure will be announced on Thursday 14 March 13. These will be closely eyed before the monetary policy meeting next week. In the coming days, advance tax figures for March will also be of interest to investors. RBI policy is on 19^th.

The INDIA VIX on NSE surged 6.8% and ended at 14.25 against previous close of 13.34.

FNO PCR is 1.05 against previous close 1.

Indian Rupee – Rupee weaked y’day by 13 paisa and was trading at 54.41/42 against its previous close of 54.28/29.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1554.76 up 3.58 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Now on event of financial book closer range is changed, now downside range is 5600 while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 6006 – 5988 – 5965 and Support – 5924 – 5907 – 5883 (Pivot 5948)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6333 – 6143 – 6044 and Supports – 5755 – 5664 - 5466

Opening – Seems flat and Nifty may continue breather till IIP nos. announcement.

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

Auto Sector –

Car sales in India slumped an annual 25.7% in February, the biggest fall in more than 12 years and the fourth consecutive monthly slide, SIAM reported. Automakers sold 158,513 cars in India last month, according to SIAM. SIAM also reported that Sales of motorcycles dropped 4.5% in February to 800,185 vehicles.

The CNX Auto index has declined by over 8% since January 2013. For the day, Shares of Tata Motors has declined by 0.8%, Bajaj Auto declined by 2%, Eicher Motors fell by 1.2%, Hero Motocorp was down 3% and Maruti fell by 0.7%.

GMR Infra –

Shares of GMR Infrastructure gained by 2.5% after reports said that the group may sell 5-star hotel situated at Hyderabad airport.

Tata Power –

Tata Power is planning to pursue opportunities in the area of fuel cell technologies, according to reports.

"Tata Power is working on putting together a workable business model in place to seek technology partners for fuel cells,"company reported.

According to reports, company is evaluating new technology for fly ash utilisation and opportunities in overseas markets are also being explored in this regard.

Fly ash is a byproduct of burning coal for electricity generation.

Reliance Power –

With the 3960 MW Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project (UMPP) now generating power, JP Chalasani, CEO, Reliance Power, says that this is the largest integrated power project anywhere in the world. During bidding, the levelised tariff for this project was Rs 1.196 per unit. 

He further added that the tariff at which the company will be selling to seven states (Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand) is significantly lower at Rs 1.30 per unit. He says it is a large project, and now the company’s top-line and bottom-line would substantially keep increasing.

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

TCS 1550 PE – bought @21 (1 Lot) SL 15 TG 35+ (Active from 8 Mar 13)

Baja Auto 200 PE – bought @22 (2 Lot) SL 15 TG 35+ (Active from 8 Mar 13)

Booked profit @29, Total gain – 1750.

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +10,000 + 1750 (Bajaj PE Gain) = 11,750

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +18,700 + 2000 (Bajaj PE Gain) = 20,700

Today’s MG Mantra –

No worry at the moment, market may show slow movement. Just keep eye on 5870 on downside.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.