Morning Bells (15 Mar 13)

Good Morning Friends.

Zindagi Tasveer bhi hai aur Taqdeer bhi, farq to rango ka he, manchahe rango se bane to Tasveer aur anjane rango se bane to Taqdeer.

Inflation figure came neutral, infact it was positive for the month of March as compared to YoY basis but many participant thought market is going down due to inflation figure but mainly that fall was due to sting operation news of one website.

Markets slipped sharply in early trades after a sting operation stated that the major Indian private sector banks were blatantly running a huge nation wide money laundering racket. However, post the clarifications from the leading private banks, the Nifty and the Sensex bounced back sharply lifting the NSE Nifty above the 5900 mark.

The Indian stock market bounced back sharply on Thursday ignoring rising inflation data. The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 6.84% (Provisional) for the month of February, 2013 (over February, 2012) as compared to 6.62% (Provisional) for the previous month and 7.56% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

ICICI Bank, Axis Bank recovered in the latter part of the day after Cobra sting. ICICI Bank and Axis Bank stocks closed up 2.7% and 0.8% respectively after falling in the early part of day after cobrapost.com alleged the banks to be involved in countrywide money laundering. The banks along with HDFC Bank were alleged to be flouting several provisions of the Income Tax Act, FEMA, RBI regulations, basic KYC norms, the Banking Act and Prevention of Money laundering Act (PMLA).

Gainers – RIL,  Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank, ONGC, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti,  Jindal Steel, Tata Steel were among gainers in Sensex and Nifty.

Losers - Wipro, Gail India, Bajaj Auto, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel were the major losers in Sensex and Nifty.

Sectoral - S&P BSE Bankex closed up 2.24% while S&P BSE Realty was up 2.20%, top stocks in the Banking segment remain SBI which went up by 3.5%, HDFC (2.28%), ICICI Bank (2.29%), IndusInd Bank (1.7%), Kotak Mahindra Bank(1.27%).

On Domestic Front –

1.

The Oil & Gas stocks were in action after media reports stated Petrol price may be reduced by about Re 1 per litre while diesel price may be hiked by 40-50 paisa a litre from March 15-16.

On Global front –

1.

US credit rating agency, Standard & Poor's may revise India's outlook to "stable" from "negative" if the government implements initiatives to reduce structural fiscal deficits, according to reports.

S&P reported downgrade is likely if India's economic growth prospects dim, external position deteriorates, political climate worsens.

=====================  MARKET OUTLOOK  =====================

As told on Tuesday that PCR at 1.35 isn’t good signal for market, CPI also diluted hopes of rate cut and y’day we had seen the impact of that.

The INDIA VIX on NSE slipped 9.5% and ended at 14.66 against previous close of 16.20.

FNO PCR is 1.34 against previous close 1.30. - ITS NOT GOOD SIGN FOR NEAR TERM.

Indian Rupee – Rupee declined by 17 paisa and was trading at 54.47 against its previous close of 54.30.

S&P 500 (US) was trading at 1560.67 down 6.15 then its previous close at the time of writing M Bells.

=======================  NIFTY OUTLOOK  ========================

Technically, Nifty extended its weakness and closed below its 100-DMA (5,857), confirming a breakdown in the index after last week’s recovery. The undertone remains cautious and there is no point to taking any risky bets ahead of the RBI policy meet next week

As per current outlook Nifty range is 5600 on downside while upside is 6200.

Intraday Resistance – 5920 – 5955 – 6002 and Support – 5827 – 5795 – 5745 (Pivot 5873)

Weekly/Monthly Resistance – 6333 – 6143 – 6044 and Supports – 5755 – 5664 - 5466

Opening – Seems flat and seems range bound session. On upside major resistance 5910 / 5925 / 5950

========================  STOCK OUTLOOK  ======================

(Stock outlook needs to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I tried to put related info which will help you in taking positions.)

BGR Energy –

BGR Energy Systems gained by 1.1%. The company has reportedly exited a Rs8bn contract for supplying power equipment to NTPC's upcoming 1,600 MW Darlipali project in Odisha, on grounds of project no advancing.

HPCL –

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Rajasthan government for setting up a 9 MMTPA refinery-cum-petrochemical complex in Barmer, Rajasthan. The project would be set up as a partnership of HPCL and Rajasthan State Refinery Ltd. (RSRL) and others. The project would be set up at a cost of Rs. 372.30bn.

Banking Sector –

ICICI Bank and Axis Bank stocks are trading up 2.7% and 0.8% respectively after falling in the early part of day after cobrapost.com alleged the banks to be involved in countrywide money laundering. The banks along with HDFC Bank were alleged to be flouting several provisions of the Income Tax Act, FEMA, RBI regulations, basic KYC norms, the Banking Act and Prevention of Money laundering Act (PMLA).

ICICI Bank stock is up 2.3% currently trading at Rs.1112. The stock touched a high of Rs.1114.45 and a low of Rs.1060.10. Total traded quantity at the counter stood at 5.34lakh on BSE.

Axis Bank stock is up 0.8% currently trading at Rs.1358.60. The stock touched a high of Rs.1366 and a low of Rs.1300. Total traded quantity at the counter stood at 4.39lakh on BSE

Infy –

Infosys is planning to spend the cash either by buying other companies or returning money to investors, according to reports.

The largest acquisition by Infosys was last year when it bought Swiss enterprise software consultancy Lodestone for about $350 million, or Rs 1940 crore

Sugar Sector -

Union Minister of Agriculture Sharad Pawar yesterday said that sugar output is likely to decline to 24 million tonnes(MT) next year owing to low sugar output in Maharashtra.

Pawar was quoted by reports as saying "This year, we are expecting 24.5 million tonnes of sugar production. Next year, it will be 24 million tonnes. The set back will be in Maharashtra,".

Owing to a second consecutive year of poor rains, planting has not begun in the state of Maharashtra, the largest sugar producing state in the country. Due to an ongoing draught situation in the state the government has decided to save water for drinking purposes and not for supply to crop plantations.

NALCO –

Giving a steep discount of nearly 10 percent, the government today fixed Rs 40 a share as the floor price for up to 10 per cent stake sale in aluminium major Nalco , which would fetch a minimum of Rs 1,031 crore

==================== OPEN CALLS ====================

# Please remember when I make special remark with any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss instead of profit.

# Be with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book even small profit if Nifty doesn’t shows strength.

Renuka Sugar 30CE – bought @0.8 (1 Lot) SL 0.45 TG 1.25+ (Active from 12 Mar 13)

Exited @0.7, booked loss of -800

=============== INVESTMENT BASKET ===============

(Stock in this section is with view of 3 months to 1 year)

Mahindra Holiday – @334 TG 375+ (Active from 15 Dec 12)

Satyam Computer – @103 TG 130+ SL 112 (Active from 15 Dec 12)

On Mobile – @44 TG 60+ Updated SL 39 Qty 2K (Active from 01 Jan 13)

============ PL Sheet (started from Jan 2013) ============

(If someone find any error in PL, please draw our attention)

MG Blog Since Jan 13 (Total 36,850) + Mar 13 = +13,000 – 800 (Renuka Loss) = +12,200

Billionaire Club Since Jan 13 (Total 67,700) + Mar = +21,950 – 800 (Renuka Loss) = +21,150

Today’s MG Mantra –

Range bound to welcome.

Have a Profitable day – MG

Disclaimer –

1. I have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial advisor.

2. Those that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t enter this market.