Good Morning Friends.
Everything is EASY
when we are crazy about it and nothing is easy when we are LAZY about it.
Whoaa, 180+ points in just days, looks it was wild
bull move. Yes it was closed just around our resistance and if you remember we
had discussed that Nifty was in 5600-5800 Range for Nov. series and it expired
as per expectations.
Well we are in Dec series which seems with full of
promise and I guess we will have great earnings opportunity in Dec & Jan series.
So be online during market hours to catch the bus.
long rollovers in the high beta sectors like Real
Estate, Infra and Auto and the defensive Pharma stocks lifted the markets to
hit the highest level in the calendar year 2012, While, some heavy short
covering in the Banking sector towards the fag end of the session saw the NSE Nifty
close above the 5800 mark for the first time in the year 2012.
Today’s noteworthy rally was seen on the back of
life time high turnover over 3.92 lakh crores turnover was registered on the
bourses.
Moody's said the stable outlook on the country's
Baa3 rating was based on its structural strengths of a high household savings
rate and relatively competitive private sector, which could help raise growth
in coming years.
The Economic Times reports that RBI has rejected
the request of banks that they be allowed to restructure real estate loans
without providing for likely losses if the loans go bad. A loan is said to be
restructured when the original terms of the agreement (interest rates, tenure)
are diluted to enable troubled borrowers repay loans. This also helps banks
recover to recover a good chunk of the funds they have lent.
This RBI move is welcome for two reasons. One, home prices could
soften (or at least the steep rate of climb could be arrested) as banks put
pressure on property developers to repay loans. This in turn could force
builders to push up sales by dropping prices if need be. Second and more
important, by bringing greedy realtors to heel, the RBI may also be able to
rein in a key contributor to inflation: soaring property prices. (MoneyControl.com)
MARKET OUTLOOK –
Consistent high FII inflows and an upbeat
government mood have boosted and strengthened market sentiment. Here onward I
see tomorrow may be subdued session and now investors will wait for FDI
discussion in parliament for next cue.
Here I would like to point out that Rupee is not
appreciating as much as we have seen rally in stock market, there was no
strength in the rupee. Today was the first day when the rupee has slightly
appreciated and that appreciation was necessary because the foreign
institutional investors (FII) inflows are not that large and FIIs could be just
hedging in the futures market.
So here onward now we need to see whether this
rupee appreciation and FII buying would continue or not.
In the last two decades, the last month of the year
has generated returns between 0.7% and 15.7%, which has given birth to the
December phenomenon theory. Only four times in the last 20 years -1994, 2000,
2001 and 2011 - December has generated negative returns, states a recent
Morgan Stanley report.
The INDIA VIX on NSE surged 10%
and ended at 15.37 and F&O PCR is 0.94.
The
rupee gained a bit and traded at 54.84 against 55.45 a day earlier.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 29 Nov 2012
|
|||||||
BUY
|
SELL
|
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
|
Difference
|
||||
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
No. of
contracts
|
Amt in
Crores
|
||
INDEX
FUTURES
|
235304
|
6819.98
|
154479
|
4473.59
|
331495
|
9701.83
|
2346.39
|
INDEX
OPTIONS
|
553503
|
15966.50
|
525646
|
15144.04
|
1220250
|
35545.55
|
822.46
|
STOCK
FUTURES
|
370042
|
10385.20
|
387528
|
10901.58
|
1047002
|
29279.39
|
-516.38
|
STOCK
OPTIONS
|
38607
|
1050.39
|
35427
|
957.55
|
1943
|
53.09
|
92.84
|
FII bought 80,825 contracts worth Rs. 2346.39
Cr. and OI decreased by 1,36,015 contacts in Index Futures. FII went long in
Nifty and Bank Nifty.
NIFTY
OUTLOOK –
So finally we closed above 5800 mark in 2012 for
the first time. Now bears that were doing efforts for ceiling 5800, but now
that has gone to 6000 mark. Now Nifty is in range of 5500-6000 as per what data
on opening day shows.
Be cautious with Nifty at this point as a long
awaited correction is on card but first Nifty can attempt to 5900 mark before
that.
Nifty Critical supports are 5548 - 5666 - 5692 - 5733. Here 5666 is Alarm and 5548 is trend changer.
Nifty Critical supports are 5548 - 5666 - 5692 - 5733. Here 5666 is Alarm and 5548 is trend changer.
Resistance comes to 5860 - 5895 – 5957 and
Supports comes to 5798 - 5762 - 5700 – 5665.
Till next week Nifty seems in the range of 5750 to 5950.
Till next week Nifty seems in the range of 5750 to 5950.
STOCK
OUTLOOK -
(Stock outlook needs
to watch stock movement carefully and then one can bet after having a look, I
tried to put related info which can decide stock move either side.)
Coal & Mining –
Sesa Goa -
Shares of NRI billionaire Anil
Agarwal-led Sesa Goa jumped a 7-8 percent ahead of the Central Empowered
Committee (CEC) report on allegations of illegal mining in Goa tomorrow.
Sesa Goa's investors are hoping
that there would be some kind of good news . Now good news can come in two
forms. 1) A partial withdrawal on the mining ban in Goa or 2) there can also be
a resumption of the transportation of iron ore that they already have. In
September 2012, there was a complete blanket mining ban in Goa. Sesa Goa has
already been suffering as their Karnataka operations have come to a standstill
for the past 15 months. The company was dependent on its Goa operations over
the past 15 months.
PVR – Cinemax Deal -
The Board of Directors of PVR
Limited (PVR) y’day announced that it has entered into Definitive Agreements to
acquire 69.27% stake in Cinemax India Limited (Cinemax), a Kanakia Group entity
that operates movie exhibition business in India.
PVR currently has 46 operational
properties, with 213 screens. This acquisition is being carried out through its
wholly owned subsidiary, Cine Hospitality Pvt. Ltd. (CHPL). CHPL would be
acquiring 69.27% stake owned by the promoter group of Cinemax at a price of Rs
203.65 for an all cash consideration of Rs 395 crores. The acquisition shall be
followed by an open offer to the public shareholders of Cinemax India Limited
for an additional 26% stake for cash, as per SEBI takeover regulations.
Jet Airways -
The much talked about
Jet-Airways-Etihad deal may be structured in two tranches and will be
signed within three months, exclusive sources told CNBC-TV18. The deal is
still at a due diligence stage, it is learnt.
Jet Air and Etihad have not confirmed the stake sale news
but sources say, the deal may be a combination of fresh issue and
secondary sale of shares.
Promoter Naresh Goyal is likely to sell 15% directly in first
tranche and Etihad will increase its stake further via a fresh issue. . Etihad
is likely to hold up 23-24% stake post the completion of the deal since the
Middle East-based carrier is not eyeing a majority stake in company.
Proceeds of the stake sale will be used to retire Rs 12,000
crore debt, Jet has on its books.
Apollo Hospitals Enterprises -
CLSA Capital Partners, the
alternate investment arm of the Hong Kong-based brokerage firm, is selling its
6.15 percent stake in India's Apollo Hospitals Enterprises
Realty Sector & Infta –
Change
in long term outlook - The real
estate sector will continue to remain an attractive investment destination with
the possibility of prices in residential areas appreciating by 91 to 145 per
cent in select cities over the next five years, according to report prepared by
Knight Frank.
Keep eye on DB Realty, Peninsula
Land & Anant Raj Industries.
GMR Infra –
Maldives Govt. has terminated the
USD 500 million GMR airport project. GMR along with its Malaysian partner
Malaysia Airport Holding Berhad, had won the contract for developing the Male
International Airport during Nasheed's regime and it was the biggest single FDI
into Maldives.
Telecom Sector –
Telecom stocks are slowly
creeping back into the game. These beaten-down stocks have gained
significantly in the last month. BhartiAirtel gained most while Reliance infra
increasing significantly.
OPEN
CALLS –
# Please remember when I make special remark with
any position then one should need to take care of that else you can make loss
instead of profit.
# Be
with strict SL and don’t hesitate to book profit if Nifty doesn’t shows
strength.
KP IT
- @127 for TG 140+ SL 117
Dish
TV - @78 for TG 84+ SL 72
DB
Realty - @128 for TG 145+ SL 107
Dishman
- @118 for TG 130+ SL 107
Jindal
Photo - @145 for TG 160+ Updated SL 126 (126
on closing basis, volatility SL 123)
Nifty Call Spread on 29 Nov 12 – 2 lot of
each 5800PE @ 10 – SL hit @ 4, booked loss of 600/-, 5800CE @ 10 – Booked profit
at 33, profit – 3300, TOTAL PROFIT 2700/ on investment of only 2000/-
Today’s
Pick (Intraday to 1-2 sessions) –
I am trying to start this section but range
bound session is not permitting. So today just giving you small details, from
next day we will have calls with details.
WILL UPDATE DURING MARKET HOURS, AS NEED TO CHECK
MARKET SENTIMENT
Today’s
MG Mantra –
Nifty has ride 180+ points so now it would
need a bit rest till FDI discussion. Trade with select stocks only.
Have a Profitable day – MG
Disclaimer –
1. I
have shared my view as per my limited knowledge; please use your own skills to
make a wise decision before execution of trade or consult your financial
advisor.
2. Those
that don’t have patience and are not willing to book loss also in cases don’t
enter this market.